Market evolution: Collector's pieces (CN 9705) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in goods classified under customs code 9705, covering "Collections and collector's pieces of zoological, botanical, mineralogical, anatomical, historical, archaeological, palaeontological, ethnographic or numismatic interest." The period under review, 2015 to 2025, has seen a significant expansion in the total value of EU trade in this niche market, accompanied by notable structural shifts. Key findings include a surge in export value more than doubling, a growing but persistently negative trade balance, increasing market concentration in imports, and the rising prominence of the United Kingdom as both an import source and export destination. The data reveals a market shaped by high-value, low-volume transactions with considerable volatility.

1. A Market in Expansion with a Divergent Value-Quantity Trajectory

The EU's trade in collector's pieces has grown substantially over the decade, but the dynamics for imports and exports have been distinct. Total trade value has increased, yet this growth masks divergent trends in volumes and unit prices.

Import value growth masks a decline in physical volume

The total value of EU imports from non-EU countries grew from €557.8 million in 2015 to €925.2 million in 2025, an increase of 65.9%. This growth was not driven by higher quantities; in fact, import volume fell by 28.7%, from 38,306 tonnes to 27,329 tonnes over the same period. The explanation lies in a dramatic 133.8% rise in the average import price, from €14,465 per tonne to €33,819 per tonne. This indicates a shift towards importing higher-value items or a change in the composition of imported goods within the CN 9705 category.

Export value more than doubled with a stronger quantity increase

EU exports displayed even stronger value growth, surging 116.7% from €239.9 million to €519.8 million. Unlike imports, export volumes also grew substantially (146.5%), from 1,277 tonnes to 3,147 tonnes. However, the export unit price actually decreased by 13.5%, suggesting that export growth was partly fueled by increased volumes of relatively lower-priced items or that price pressures affected the average.

Persistent trade deficit with a volatile balance

The EU has maintained a structural trade deficit in this category throughout the period. The deficit widened from €317.9 million in 2015 to €405.5 million in 2025. The most dramatic shift occurred in 2020, when a sharp drop in imports relative to exports temporarily brought the balance close to zero, highlighting the market's susceptibility to external shocks. For a visual overview of these trade flows, see the General Overview.

2. Shifting Partners and Increasing Import Concentration

The geographic landscape of EU trade in collector's pieces has evolved significantly, with the United Kingdom emerging as a central player and import sources becoming less concentrated.

The United Kingdom's dramatic rise as a trade partner

The most striking development is the transformation of the UK's role. For EU imports, the UK went from a minor source (€2.4 million in 2015) to the second-largest partner by 2025 (€303.3 million). This 12,566% increase reflects major trade flow shifts, likely accelerated by Brexit-related reclassification of goods previously moving within the EU. For EU exports, the UK also grew in importance, rising from €22.9 million to €125.7 million (+448%). The volatility of these flows is high, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 1.11 for imports and 1.03 for exports, indicating unstable year-on-year patterns. Volatility analysis confirms the UK as a major source of shocks.

Diversification of import sources reduces concentration

While the US remains the largest import partner (€340.8 million in 2025), its share has declined from €419.1 million in 2015. The rise of Switzerland (+117% to €145.8 million) and the UK has diversified the import base. This is quantified by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value concentration, which fell by 51.6% from 5,994 in 2015 to 2,900 in 2025, indicating a move away from a market dominated by a single supplier towards a more competitive structure. Export destination concentration saw a milder increase (HHI +31.5%). Further details on partner rankings are available in the by-country breakdown.

Export shocks linked to geopolitical events

Volatility analysis highlights specific high-impact events. A major price shock was detected in exports to the UK centered on 2020, with a 300% price shift. A 736% price shift for exports to Russia was detected in 2023, coinciding with geopolitical tensions and sanctions, which is corroborated by the near-complete collapse of exports to Russia to just €2,982 by 2025. Shock event details provide more context on these anomalies.

3. Product Composition Drives Price Dynamics

The CN 9705 heading is a bundling code encompassing diverse sub-categories. A detailed breakdown for 2022–2025 shows that the majority of trade value is concentrated in a few segments, which explains the overall price trends.

"Archaeological and historical" items dominate imports and exports

Sub-code 970510 (Collections and collectors’ pieces of archaeological, ethnographic or historical interest) is the overwhelmingly dominant segment. In 2025, it accounted for 82.4% of total import value (€762.6 million) and 69.5% of export value (€361.3 million). Its high and volatile unit price (€30,839/t for imports, €128,825/t for exports in 2025) is a primary driver of the overall market's price level.

Numismatic items form a significant second tier

Numismatic pieces, split between old (970531, over 100 years) and modern (970539), constitute another major category. In imports, 970539 (modern) saw its volume fall while its price more than doubled (from €11,541/t in 2022 to €23,423/t in 2025). For exports, 970531 (old coins) commands extraordinary unit prices (€17.9 million/t in 2025), confirming these as extremely high-value, low-weight items. The product comparison tool allows for deeper segment analysis.

EU member specialisation varies widely

Intra-EU analysis for 2025 reveals divergent roles. Malta and Belgium show the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in exports for CN 9705, suggesting specialization. In contrast, countries like Slovakia and Hungary are highly unspecialized. For a list of the most and least specialised economies, see the specialisation analysis.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in collector's pieces (CN 9705) has become more valuable but not necessarily larger in physical terms. The market is characterized by a few high-value sub-categories—particularly archaeological/historical items and numismatic pieces—that dictate overall price trends and volatility. Geopolitical and regulatory shifts, most notably Brexit, have profoundly reshaped trade routes, catapulting the United Kingdom into a central role. While import sources have become more diversified, the market remains highly sensitive to shocks, as evidenced by volatile flows with key partners like the UK and Russia. The persistent trade deficit, fueled by high-value imports of specific collectibles, underscores the EU's role as a major consumer in the global market for these unique goods. The future trajectory will likely depend on regulatory frameworks, the health of the global auction market, and continued collector demand.