Market evolution: Original engravings prints lithographs (CN 9702) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Original engravings, prints and lithographs (CN 9702) represent a niche but culturally significant segment within the EU's trade in works of art, collectors' pieces and antiques. Over the 2015–2025 period, the European Union saw both its extra-EU imports and exports in this product category roughly triple in value, rising from around €37 million and €34 million respectively at the start of the period to nearly €97 million and €95 million by 2025. This report examines the key dynamics behind that transformation, identifies the structural shifts in trading partners, and explores what the data reveals about the EU's internal geography of production and specialisation in this market.

1. A Market Tripled in Value, Driven More by Prices Than by Volumes

The overall growth trajectory shows strong value appreciation outpacing physical trade

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's extra-EU trade in CN 9702 grew substantially on both sides of the ledger:

While volumes grew modestly (around 21–24%), unit values more than doubled. This indicates that the surge in trade value was primarily a price phenomenon — reflecting either the sale of higher-value artworks, general art-market inflation, or a compositional shift toward more expensive pieces.

Import prices consistently remain below export prices

A notable structural feature is that EU import prices (EUR per tonne) have consistently remained below EU export prices throughout the period. In 2025, imports averaged €432,160/t while exports averaged €670,005/t. This gap suggests the EU may be adding value — through curation, authentication, restoration, or re-export of higher-calibre pieces — or that the EU sources prints from lower-price origins and sells to higher-price destinations.

The trade balance oscillated but ended close to equilibrium

The EU's trade balance in CN 9702 fluctuated significantly over the decade. It started at −€2.7 million in 2015, deteriorated to a deficit as large as −€23.5 million in an intermediate year, swung to a surplus peak of +€18.7 million, and ultimately settled at −€2.1 million in 2025. The balance thus improved by 20.5% over the full period, though the market remained close to parity. This oscillation underscores the inherently lumpy, event-driven nature of art trade, where single large transactions can swing the balance.

2. Brexit Reshuffles the Map: The United Kingdom's Dramatic Emergence as a Trading Partner

The UK went from minor extra-EU partner to the second-largest on both sides

The single most striking structural shift in the partner data is the explosive growth in EU–UK trade from 2021 onward. Prior to Brexit, UK–EU trade was intra-EU and therefore invisible in extra-EU customs statistics. Once the UK left the Single Market on 1 January 2021, these flows became subject to customs declarations:

These growth rates are not reflective of genuine market expansion but rather a statistical reclassification — a large pre-existing bilateral art trade that was simply not captured in extra-EU data until 2021. The shock-detection analysis confirms this: the data identifies a price shock in EU exports to the UK in 2021 with a +410.8% shift and an abnormality score of 19.7, the highest detected in the dataset. A similar import-side price shock for the UK appears in 2017 (+235.5%), possibly linked to anticipatory trade flows or exchange-rate effects following the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Import concentration fell sharply as the UK diluted the US share

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value fell from 5,333 in 2015 to 3,213 in 2025 — a decline of 39.8% and the lowest point in the series. Before Brexit, the United States dominated EU imports (€26.5 M in 2015, 71% of tracked partner value). By 2025, while the US remained the largest single source at €39.4 M, the UK had become a close second at €33.6 M, and Switzerland contributed €16.7 M. The result was a meaningfully more diversified import base.

Export concentration edged upward, reflecting US and UK dominance

By contrast, the export-side HHI rose from 3,031 to 3,488 (+15.1%). The United States absorbed €49.0 M of EU exports in 2025 (up 205.9% from 2015), and the UK took €23.4 M. Together, these two Anglophone markets accounted for the vast majority of outbound trade, increasing the EU's export concentration toward a smaller set of high-value destinations.

Traditional partners showed divergent trajectories

Beyond the UK story, the partner data reveals other trends:

The United States consolidated its position as the EU's single most important non-UK partner, especially on the export side where it absorbed more than half of tracked extra-EU outbound value. Switzerland also grew significantly as an import source. China, conversely, saw declining trade in both directions — a pattern consistent with geopolitical tensions, shifting collector preferences, and the broader deceleration of Chinese contemporary-art purchases from Western markets.

3. European Hubs and Specialisation: France, Germany, and the Netherlands Lead

France and Germany dominate intra-EU import and export activity

Looking at which EU member states report the most trade, France and Germany consistently rank at the top for both imports and exports:

France's role is consistent with its status as a global centre for the art market (Paris, with major auction houses and galleries). Germany's strength likely reflects its large collector base and established print-making tradition (Dürer, Beckmann, and the Expressionist print legacy).

The Netherlands emerged as Europe's foremost print re-export hub

The most dramatic intra-EU shift is the Netherlands' export growth of +1,857.9%, rising from under €1 million in 2015 to €17.8 million in 2025 — making it the third-largest EU exporter of prints. Given that Dutch import growth was comparatively modest (+208.5%), this asymmetry strongly suggests the Netherlands has developed a role as a trade and logistics hub for original prints, likely facilitated by its freeport infrastructure, favourable tax treatment for art, and Rotterdam/Amsterdam logistics networks.

Specialisation is concentrated in a handful of Western European states

The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 shows that export specialisation in CN 9702 is strongly concentrated in a small number of EU members:

Denmark, Ireland, and Greece show very high specialisation despite modest absolute volumes, indicating that prints and lithographs constitute a disproportionately large share of their extra-EU art exports. France and Italy combine high specialisation with large absolute volumes, making them the market's anchor economies. At the other end of the spectrum, large economies like Poland (RSCA −1.00) and Finland (RSCA −1.00) show virtually no export specialisation in this product.

Modern prints dominate by volume, but vintage works command far higher unit prices

The product segment breakdown (available from 2022 onward) reveals a clear two-tier market:

Modern prints (970290) account for the vast majority of traded weight. However, works over 100 years old (970210) command unit prices four to seven times higher than their modern counterparts. On the export side in particular, vintage prints averaged nearly €3.9 million per tonne in 2025 — reflecting the premium that collectors place on pre-1925 originals. It is worth noting that the 970210 import price was highly erratic (from €2.2 M/t in 2022 down to €452 k/t in 2024 and back to €1.6 M/t in 2025), consistent with the inherently lumpy nature of high-value, low-volume art transactions.

Conclusion

The EU market for original engravings, prints and lithographs (CN 9702) underwent a significant transformation between 2015 and 2025. Trade values roughly tripled on both the import and export sides, though this was driven far more by rising unit prices than by increases in physical volumes — a pattern consistent with the broader global art-market trend of appreciating values for original works on paper.

The most consequential structural change was the reclassification of EU–UK trade as extra-EU following Brexit in January 2021. The United Kingdom emerged overnight as the EU's second-largest partner on both the import and export sides, a shift that fundamentally reshaped the partner concentration landscape: import-side HHI fell by nearly 40%, while the UK and United States together came to dominate the export side. This was not a market creation event but a statistical revelation of a previously hidden bilateral flow.

Within the EU, France and Germany remain the twin anchors of the print trade, while the Netherlands has carved out a striking role as a re-export hub. A small group of countries — Denmark, Ireland, and Greece — display remarkably high specialisation despite modest absolute volumes, reflecting niche but internationally competitive positions. Meanwhile, the two-tier nature of the market — high-volume, moderate-value modern prints versus low-volume, ultra-high-value vintage works — continues to define the economics of the trade, with vintage pieces commanding unit prices several multiples above contemporary production.