Market evolution: Paintings and drawings (CN 970191) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in hand-executed paintings and drawings (Customs Nomenclature code 970191), covering oil paintings, watercolours, pastels, and similar works produced within the last century. While the report title references 2015–2025, the available data covers annual figures for the period 2022–2025. The analysis focuses on aggregate EU-level trends, major partner dynamics, concentration patterns, and price movements, drawing exclusively from the figures provided.

I. From surplus to deficit: a structural shift in the EU's art trade balance

The EU's trade balance reversed dramatically over 2022–2025

The EU's trade balance in paintings and drawings swung from a surplus of €361 million in 2022 to a deficit of approximately €125 million by 2025 — a change of −134.5%. This reversal was driven not by a collapse in exports, but by a pronounced surge in imports.

Export volumes rose even as values stagnated

EU exports saw a 10.8% increase in volume (from 870 to 964 tonnes) but a 1.3% decline in total value. This implies a significant compression in the average unit price, which fell from approximately €1,805,000 per tonne in 2022 to €1,608,000 per tonne in 2025 — a drop of 10.9%. In other words, the EU is shipping out more physical artwork but receiving less value per unit, suggesting either a shift toward lower-value works in the export basket or downward price pressure in destination markets.

Import values surged despite flat volumes

Imports told the opposite story: volumes remained essentially stable (declining just 1.6%, from 1,966 to 1,934 tonnes), yet total import value rose by 38.5%. The average import price jumped by 40.8%, from approximately €615,000 per tonne to €866,000 per tonne. This indicates that the EU is importing increasingly expensive works — a pattern consistent with strong demand from European collectors and institutions for high-value art from non-EU sources.

II. The transatlantic axis dominates, while Switzerland and the UK show divergent trajectories

The United States is the EU's single largest partner in both directions

The United States dominates EU trade in paintings on both the import and export sides:

The US accounts for roughly 40–45% of EU import value and 35–42% of EU export value in this category. Both flows grew over the period, suggesting a deepening transatlantic art market integration — consistent with the concentration of major auction houses, galleries, and private collectors in New York and other US centres.

Switzerland emerged as the fastest-growing import partner

EU imports from Switzerland surged by 66.5%, from €266 million to €443 million — making Switzerland the second-largest source of imported paintings by 2025, overtaking the United Kingdom. Switzerland's role as a global art storage hub (e.g., the Geneva Freeport) and its position as a key intermediary market likely contributed to this growth.

The United Kingdom maintained a large but shifting role

The United Kingdom remains a major partner but shows divergent trends by direction:

EU imports from the UK grew sharply, likely reflecting post-Brexit customs realignments and the UK's continued prominence as an art auction centre (London). Conversely, EU exports to the UK declined, possibly indicating that the UK market is increasingly sourcing art from non-EU origins directly, or that Brexit-related frictions have modestly reduced EU-to-UK art flows.

Hong Kong and South Korea show notable export declines

EU exports to Hong Kong fell by 15.7%, and exports to South Korea collapsed by 68.2% (from €60 million to €19 million). The sharp Korean decline may reflect cyclical factors in the Asian art market or a redirection of purchasing activity toward auction hubs in the US and UK. Exports to China also fell significantly (−53.8%), from €23 million to €11 million.

III. France as the EU's art trade epicentre, with rising concentration on the export side

France is the undisputed EU leader in both imports and exports

Among EU Member States, France dominates this trade by a wide margin:

France alone accounts for nearly 46% of EU import value and 49% of EU export value in 2025. French imports surged by 62.6% over the period — the strongest growth among all Member States — while exports grew by a more modest 14.6%. This reflects France's position as the EU's primary art market hub, anchored by Paris's gallery ecosystem, auction houses, and the FIAC/Paris+ art fair.

Germany and Italy show divergent export trends

Germany saw imports grow modestly (+4.4%) but exports decline by 24.6%, from €289 million to €218 million. Italy followed a similar pattern, with imports rising slightly (+6.9%) but exports falling by 24.2%. These declines suggest that the EU's art export capacity is becoming more concentrated in France, while other historically strong exporters are losing ground.

Export market concentration increased, while import sources diversified slightly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) confirms this pattern:

Export concentration rose meaningfully, reflecting the growing dominance of the US as a destination market and the decline of several Asian partners. Import concentration declined marginally, as the UK and Switzerland gained share relative to smaller suppliers. Both markets remain moderately concentrated (HHI above 2,500 on the export side), consistent with the art trade's inherently idiosyncratic and relationship-driven nature.

Specialisation is concentrated in a handful of Western European states

The revealed comparative advantage analysis for 2025 shows that Austria (RSCA: 0.63), France (RSCA: 0.61), and Denmark (RSCA: 0.48) are the most specialised EU exporters of paintings and drawings, while Central and Eastern European members — including Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Estonia, and Czechia — show negligible specialisation (RSCA close to −1.0). This geographic pattern is unsurprising: the art market is closely tied to established cultural infrastructure, collector networks, and auction traditions that remain concentrated in Western Europe.

Conclusion

Over the 2022–2025 period, the EU's trade in hand-executed paintings and drawings underwent a notable structural shift. The bloc moved from a comfortable trade surplus to a deficit, driven by a 38.5% surge in import value — largely fuelled by rising prices from the United States, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom — while export values remained essentially flat. The EU is exporting more physical artwork but at lower average prices, while importing fewer tonnes at substantially higher values.

France has solidified its position as the EU's dominant art trading hub, accounting for nearly half of both imports and exports, with other major economies like Germany and Italy losing export share. The transatlantic relationship with the United States remains the backbone of this trade, but Switzerland's rapid growth as an import source highlights the importance of intermediary storage and logistics hubs. Meanwhile, Asian markets have declined in significance as EU export destinations.

The art market's inherent volatility — driven by the uniqueness of each work, auction cycles, and collector sentiment — makes these flows sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts. The rising concentration of EU exports and the sharp price divergence between import and export unit values are trends worth monitoring in the years ahead.