Market evolution: Sports equipment and toys (CN 95) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in products classified under Combined Nomenclature heading 95, covering toys, games, sports requisites, and their parts and accessories. The category encompasses a wide range of goods—from dolls and puzzles (CN 9503) and video game consoles (CN 9504) to sports equipment and swimming pools (CN 9506), festival articles (CN 9505), fishing tackle (CN 9507), and amusement park rides (CN 9508). Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in these products was shaped by three powerful and overlapping forces: a structural increase in import dependence, major demand shocks triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, and a geopolitical realignment of supply chains away from traditional partners. The result is a market that has grown significantly in value—driven by both higher volumes and price effects—but one in which the EU's trade deficit has widened and its vulnerability to external supply disruptions has deepened.

1. A widening deficit fuelled by surging imports and rising import reliance

The EU trade deficit grew by nearly half over the decade

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade deficit in CN 95 products widened from €8.69 billion to €12.80 billion, a deterioration of 47.3%. This was not the result of weak export performance—exports actually grew by 47.2% in value over the same period—but rather of imports growing even faster in absolute terms. The net import reliance more than doubled, climbing from 25.1% in 2015 to 50.7% in 2025, meaning that the EU now sources over half of its domestic consumption from outside the bloc. This represents a fundamental structural shift: the EU has become substantially more dependent on non-EU suppliers for toys, games, and sports goods.

Import volumes grew much faster than prices fell

Import values rose by 47.3% over the decade, but this masks a more striking trend in volumes: import quantities surged by 53.9%, from 1.50 million tonnes to 2.31 million tonnes. Meanwhile, average import prices actually declined by 4.3%, falling from €9,685/t to €9,265/t. This suggests that the EU has been able to source goods at competitive prices from low-cost producers, but the sheer volume of imports has overwhelmed any savings from lower unit costs. By contrast, EU export prices rose by 36.0% (from €13,966/t to €18,993/t), while export volumes grew only 8.2%. This widening price gap indicates that EU exports tend to be positioned in higher-value segments, while imports are increasingly dominated by mass-market, lower-cost goods.

EU domestic production shifted from volume to value

EU production data reveals a dramatic transformation. Production volumes collapsed by 65%, from 923 million units to 323 million units, yet production values increased by 51.1%, from €6.80 billion to €10.28 billion. This implies that EU manufacturers have retreated from mass-produced, low-margin goods and concentrated on higher-value products—likely specialised sports equipment, premium toys, and technologically advanced gaming hardware. The low-end manufacturing has largely migrated to Asia, reinforcing the structural import dependence.

The import market remains highly concentrated on China

The concentration of EU imports (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index by value) stood at 5,686 in 2025, up 7.7% from 5,280 in 2015—indicating a market that is highly concentrated and becoming slightly more so. China remains the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, accounting for €15.96 billion of the EU's €21.40 billion in imports in 2025 (approximately 75%). China's share grew by 53.1% in value over the decade, from €10.43 billion. Despite talk of supply-chain diversification, the data shows that the EU's dependence on China for toys and sports goods has actually deepened in absolute terms.

2. Pandemic shocks and recovery: COVID-19 turbocharged demand for home entertainment and fitness

The 2020–2021 period saw an extraordinary import boom driven by lockdown lifestyles

The most striking dynamic in the data is the massive spike in imports during the COVID-19 pandemic years. Total EU imports of CN 95 peaked at €24.22 billion in 2021 and 2.61 million tonnes in volume—both all-time highs in the dataset. This surge was driven by two product segments that benefited directly from lockdown conditions:

• Sports equipment (CN 9506): Import volumes nearly doubled from 759,000 tonnes in 2019 to 1,447,000 tonnes in 2021, as European consumers invested in home fitness equipment, bicycles, and outdoor gear. Import values in this segment surged from €3.82 billion in 2019 to €6.49 billion in 2021—a 70% jump in just two years. This reflected the well-documented global boom in home exercise equipment and outdoor recreation during lockdowns.

• Video games and consoles (CN 9504): Import values rose from €4.81 billion in 2019 to a peak of €8.63 billion in 2023, reflecting sustained demand for gaming hardware (such as next-generation consoles from Sony and Microsoft) and related entertainment products that consumers turned to during extended periods at home.

The pandemic surge was followed by a correction but not a return to baseline

After the 2021–2022 peak, import volumes and values contracted—sports equipment imports fell back to 649,000 tonnes in 2023 before partially recovering, and total import values declined from the €24.2 billion peak to €21.4 billion in 2025. However, the 2025 figures remain substantially above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that some of the behavioural shifts (greater home entertainment spending, more outdoor and fitness activity) have become permanent features of European consumer demand.

Price shocks accompanied the volume surges

The pandemic period also brought significant price disruptions. The data detects a major price shock in EU imports from China in 2022, with an abnormality score of 14.6 and a price shift of +44.5%. This likely reflects a combination of global shipping cost inflation, supply-chain bottlenecks, and raw material cost increases that characterised the post-lockdown period. Import prices for several key segments—sports equipment, toys, and video games—spiked in 2022 before moderating in subsequent years.

This pattern—a sharp price spike in 2022 followed by a return toward pre-pandemic levels—is consistent with the global unwinding of supply-chain pressures and freight cost inflation.

3. Geopolitical realignment: Brexit, sanctions, and the rise of Southeast Asian suppliers

Brexit dramatically reduced the UK's role as an EU import partner

One of the most visible structural shifts in the data is the collapse of imports from the United Kingdom. EU imports from the UK fell by 60.1%, from €1.44 billion in 2015 to €573 million in 2025. The decline was not gradual; it accelerated sharply after the UK formally left the EU single market in January 2021. The UK's volatility coefficient of 0.58 is the highest among the EU's major import partners, reflecting the instability introduced by Brexit-related trade disruption. The UK went from being the EU's second-largest non-EU import source to being surpassed by Vietnam and approaching the level of smaller suppliers.

Conversely, EU exports to the UK grew by 39.5%, from €1.43 billion to €1.99 billion. This asymmetry—declining imports from the UK but growing exports to the UK—may reflect the reorientation of supply chains, with UK-based intermediaries being replaced by direct EU-to-third-country sourcing, while the UK consumer market continued to demand EU-produced goods.

Russia's collapse as an export market reflects the impact of sanctions

EU exports to Russia fell by 67.8%, from €363 million in 2015 to just €117 million in 2025. The sharpest decline occurred after 2022, coinciding with EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia went from being the EU's sixth-largest export destination for CN 95 products to a marginal market. The volatility coefficient for this trade relationship (0.53) is among the highest in the dataset, underscoring the instability introduced by geopolitical conflict. This represents a permanent market loss for EU exporters, at least as long as the current sanctions regime persists.

Vietnam emerged as a major alternative to China

The most dramatic growth story among import partners is Vietnam. EU imports from Vietnam surged by 500.3%, from €132 million in 2015 to €792 million in 2025—a sixfold increase. While Vietnam's absolute share remains small compared to China, its trajectory reflects the broader "China+1" strategy adopted by many global manufacturers and retailers seeking to diversify production away from China. Vietnam's growth was supported by its competitive labour costs, its network of free trade agreements (including the EU-Vietnam FTA, which entered into force in August 2020), and its rapidly expanding manufacturing capacity in consumer goods.

Other Southeast Asian suppliers also grew significantly:

This diversification, however, remains incremental in the face of China's overwhelming dominance. China's share of EU imports in 2025 (approximately €16 billion out of €21 billion) dwarfs the combined contribution of all alternative Asian suppliers.

EU export markets show diversification but also volatility

The export side presents a more balanced picture. The EU's top export destinations are geographically diverse: the UK (€1.99bn), the US (€1.30bn), Switzerland (€991M), and Norway (€452M). Exports to the US grew by 80% and to Switzerland by 74.7%, reflecting strong demand for European sports and leisure products in high-income markets. The export concentration HHI remained low at around 1,012 in 2025, indicating a well-diversified export base that contrasts sharply with the highly concentrated import structure.

Within the EU, Germany and the Netherlands dominate both imports and exports, consistent with their roles as the EU's largest economies and major logistics hubs (notably Rotterdam and Hamburg). Poland stands out as the fastest-growing EU exporter (+107.5% in value) and the fastest-growing importer (+196.6%), reflecting both its integration into Central European manufacturing supply chains and its growing domestic consumer market. Spain's imports nearly doubled (+89.1%), potentially reflecting its strong tourism sector's demand for sports and leisure goods.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in toys, games, and sports requisites over the 2015–2025 decade tells a story of rapid growth accompanied by deepening structural vulnerabilities. The market has expanded considerably—imports grew by 47% in value and 54% in volume—but this growth has been overwhelmingly supplied by non-EU producers, principally China. The EU's net import reliance doubled from 25% to 51%, and domestic production shifted decisively away from mass-market goods toward higher-value segments. The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a powerful accelerant, creating a temporary but intense demand boom for home fitness equipment and gaming hardware that reshaped the market's trajectory. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments—Brexit, EU sanctions on Russia, and the early stages of supply-chain diversification to Vietnam and other Asian economies—have redrawn the trade map. Looking ahead, the central tension for EU policymakers and businesses is between the consumer benefits of low-cost imports and the strategic risks of heavy dependence on a single supplier, in a product category where Europe's own manufacturing base has contracted dramatically in volume terms.