Market evolution: Video game consoles and machines (CN 9504) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU trade in products classified under customs code 9504, which encompasses video game consoles, coin-operated games, billiards, playing cards, and other table and parlour games. The period from 2015 to 2025 was marked by significant structural shifts, driven by surging consumer demand, geopolitical realignments, and the increasing dominance of digital products. The EU's trade position transformed from near self-sufficiency to substantial import reliance, while its export profile diversified in both partners and product composition.

1. A Decade of Structural Deficit: The EU's Growing Reliance on External Supply

The most defining trend of the period was the dramatic widening of the EU's trade deficit. The value of imports grew consistently, culminating in a deficit of €4.37 billion in 2025, a 43.7% increase from 2015. This was not merely a value phenomenon; import volumes nearly doubled (+94.9%), indicating a profound structural shift in the market's supply chain.

The EU's net import reliance soared from a mere 2.1% in 2015 to over 70% in 2025. This metric, which measures the share of apparent consumption satisfied by imports, confirms the bloc's decisive shift towards external suppliers. The transformation was particularly sharp between 2019 and 2022, coinciding with the global pandemic, which massively accelerated the adoption of home entertainment and strained global supply chains.

2. The Video Game Console as the Market's Engine: Shifting Trade Flows and Partners

The aggregate figures mask a critical product-level divergence. The surge in import volumes and the growing deficit were overwhelmingly driven by two product subcategories.

CN 950450 – Video game consoles and machines was the dominant driver by value. This segment experienced extreme volatility, with import value peaking at €7.05 billion in 2023 before falling back to €4.86 billion in 2025, closely tracking console hardware launch cycles. Its share of total imports consistently hovered around 70-75%. Simultaneously, CN 950430 – Games with screens, flipper and other games, operated by coins, banknotes, bank cards, tokens also saw its import value triple from €336 million (2015) to €915 million (2025), reflecting growth in arcade and amusement machine markets.

The geography of this supply shifted decisively towards Asia. While China remained the overwhelmingly dominant partner, increasing its import value share from €3.06 billion (2015) to €4.81 billion (2025), notable growth emerged from Vietnam (from €1.2 million to €160 million) and, more recently, Kenya (from €1.2 million to €38.5 million). These trends suggest ongoing supply chain diversification efforts, though China's position remains unassailable for core electronics manufacturing.

On the export side, the EU also demonstrated resilience and adaptation. Export value grew by 84.9%, with the United Kingdom remaining the top destination despite its exit from the EU single market. Export volumes to the United States more than tripled in value. A critical development was the explosive growth of playing cards (CN 950440) as an export product; its value surged from €48 million to €260 million, representing the fastest-growing segment and a potential area of EU specialization.

3. Vulnerability and Specialization: The EU's Divergent Market Structures

The trade boom exposed new vulnerabilities while revealing pockets of competitive strength. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports remained high (~5,500), confirming a concentrated and vulnerable supply base. Any disruption in major Asian manufacturing hubs would have severe consequences for the EU market.

Conversely, the EU's export market structure became more diversified (HHI fell from 1,364 to 974). The bloc's production base is also evolving. While total EU production quantity of CN 9504 goods fell by 31.3% (2015 to 2025), production value increased by 33.6%. This indicates a move towards higher-value-added segments, away from mass-produced, low-margin items.

Specialization data from 2025 highlights this fragmentation. The Netherlands (specialization score: 0.37) and Poland (0.34) emerged as EU export hubs for these products, likely leveraging logistics networks and manufacturing capabilities. In contrast, large economies like Italy and Ireland showed negative specialization, indicating they are net importers in this sector, a pattern consistent with their consumption profiles.

The period was also marked by significant price shocks in trade relationships. EU exporters to Switzerland (2017) and the United Kingdom (2017) experienced extreme price volatility (abnormality scores of 70 and 43, respectively). These shocks, alongside the more recent geopolitical shock of the Russian Federation's exclusion from EU exports (value plummeted by 94.8%), underscore the market's sensitivity to regulatory and political shifts.

Conclusion

From 2015 to 2025, the EU market for CN 9504 products underwent a fundamental transformation. It evolved from a relatively balanced market into one characterized by deep import dependence, particularly for high-value video game consoles. This structural deficit was driven by insatiable consumer demand, predominantly supplied by China, though with early signs of diversification to Southeast Asia.

The EU's export profile proved more dynamic, growing in value and diversifying partners and products, with playing cards emerging as a surprising growth leader. The market is now bifurcated: it faces significant supply-chain concentration risks on the import side while cultivating a more resilient and specialized export base. Key dynamics to monitor include the sustainability of the shift to digital and subscription models (reducing physical hardware demand), the stability of Asian supply chains, and the potential for EU-based production to recapture higher-value segments of the video game ecosystem.