Market evolution: Furniture and lighting (CN 94) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade for Combined Nomenclature (CN) chapter 94, encompassing furniture, bedding, lighting fittings, and prefabricated buildings, over the period 2015–2025. The analysis reveals a profound transformation in the EU's trade dynamics, characterized by a dramatic surge in imports that has fundamentally altered the sector's trade balance. While EU exports have shown moderate growth in value, their physical volume has stagnated. In contrast, imports have expanded massively in both value and volume, leading the EU to transition from a net exporter to a net importer of these goods. This shift underscores significant structural changes in global supply chains and competitive pressures, with particular implications for the EU's manufacturing base and trade dependency.

1. The Import Surge and China's Dominant Role

The period under review is defined by a relentless growth in EU imports, which has reshaped the trade landscape for chapter 94 products. This expansion was not uniform across all partners but was overwhelmingly driven by a single country, leading to increased market concentration on the import side.

• EU import value for CN 94 grew from €19.97 billion in 2015 to €33.69 billion in 2025, a substantial increase of 68.7%. The growth was even more pronounced in physical terms, with import volumes rising by 78.4%, from 4.42 million tonnes to 7.88 million tonnes. This indicates a strong increase in the quantity of goods entering the EU market.
• China was the unequivocal engine of this import growth. It remained the EU's largest supplier throughout the period, with its shipments rising from €12.26 billion to €21.42 billion (+74.7%). China's share of total extra-EU imports for these products is dominant and has been a primary factor in the overall trade trend. View the top import partners.
• Other significant import sources also showed strong growth, albeit from smaller bases. Türkiye (+159.9%) and Ukraine (+515.5%) were among the fastest-growing suppliers. The latter's surge is particularly noteworthy and likely reflects shifts in supply chains due to geopolitical factors and EU-Ukraine trade agreements.

This import boom occurred across all product sub-categories. For instance, imports of general furniture (9403) and seats (9401) more than doubled in volume. The concentration index (HHI) for imports increased by 7.5%, confirming that supply became more concentrated, primarily on China.

2. The Reversal of the EU's Trade Balance and Shifting Production

The asymmetric growth between imports and exports led to a fundamental reversal of the EU's trade position, even as internal production metrics showed mixed signals. The EU's role evolved from a net seller to a net buyer of these products in the global market.

• The EU's trade surplus in CN 94 products, which stood at €5.75 billion in 2015, was completely eroded and turned into a deficit of -€4.57 billion by 2025—a swing of over €10 billion. This reversal is the central economic story of the period. The net import reliance metric moved from -6.6% (net exporter) to +2.6% (net importer).
• Export performance stagnated in volume but grew in value. While export values increased by 13.2% (to €29.13 Bn), their physical volume declined by 11.2% (from 4.89 M t to 4.34 M t). This suggests that EU exports are moving up the value chain, with a rising unit value (from €5,258/t to €6,708/t), but are losing competitiveness in terms of total physical output sold abroad.
• EU production data shows a similar divergent trend. Between the first and last available years, the physical quantity of EU production (measured in number of items) fell by 29.1%, yet its total value rose by 44.0%. This indicates a significant increase in production prices and a potential shift towards higher-value, niche manufacturing, while total output volume has contracted.

The EU's main export markets remained stable: the United Kingdom, the United States, and Switzerland were the top three destinations. Notably, exports to the Russian Federation collapsed by 75.2%, from €1.52 Bn to €0.38 Bn, likely due to sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

3. Price Shocks, Volatility, and Dependency Risks

The trade flow analysis reveals significant volatility in key bilateral relationships and notable price shocks, particularly around 2022, exposing the EU's vulnerability in this sector.

• The coefficient of variation (CV) highlights which trade relationships are most volatile. On the import side, flows from Belarus (CV=0.60) and Ukraine (CV=0.40) were highly unstable. For exports, trade with the Russian Federation (CV=0.60) and China (CV=0.41) was most volatile.
• The year 2022 was marked by significant price shocks. The system detected abnormal price shifts in three major trade flows: 1) a price shock on EU imports from Türkiye (abnormality score 37.7), 2) a price shock on EU exports to Russia (abnormality 16.2), and 3) a price shock on EU exports to the United States (abnormality 10.7). View supply shock events.
• These shocks align with known global disruptions: post-pandemic supply chain pressures, the energy crisis, and the early effects of the war in Ukraine. The shock to exports to Russia, with a 91.6% price shift, coincides with the introduction of sanctions and a reorientation of trade flows.
• The rising trade intensity (from 17.6% to 34.2%) for the EU indicates that the sector has become more deeply integrated into global trade, increasing its exposure to external shocks. This, combined with increased import concentration on China, creates a potential strategic dependency.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 period marks a paradigm shift for the EU's furniture, lighting, and prefabricated buildings sector. The EU has moved decisively from a net exporter to a net importer, driven by an overwhelming increase in inbound shipments from China. While EU exporters have managed to increase the unit value of their shipments, they have not been able to compete with the sheer scale of import growth in terms of volume.

This transformation reflects broader global trends of manufacturing offshoring and supply chain integration. However, it also introduces new vulnerabilities, as evidenced by the sector's increased trade intensity and exposure to price shocks. The data suggests that the EU is specializing in higher-value segments but at the cost of overall market share in physical terms and a deteriorating trade balance. Future policy and business strategy will need to navigate the trade-offs between cost efficiency, supply chain resilience, and maintaining a competitive manufacturing base in this critical sector.