Market evolution: Other furniture (CN 9403) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in furniture and parts thereof (Combined Nomenclature code 9403), excluding seats and medical/surgical/dental/veterinary furniture, over the period 2015–2025. The analysis covers both imports from and exports to non-EU countries and draws on data from the EU Trade Dashboard.

The decade under review was marked by a structural divergence between the EU's export and import trajectories. While EU exports grew moderately in value and shifted toward higher unit prices, imports nearly doubled in value and volume, driven overwhelmingly by surging Chinese shipments. The EU's traditional trade surplus in this product category narrowed dramatically — from €6.1 billion in 2015 to €2.7 billion in 2025 — raising important questions about the bloc's competitive position and supply-chain exposure in a strategically relevant manufacturing sector.

1. A decade of divergence: Import growth far outpaces export expansion

1.1 EU imports in CN 9403 nearly doubled in value and volume

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports of other furniture increased by 93.3%, rising from €5.37 billion to €10.37 billion. In volume terms, the growth was even steeper: imported quantities climbed from 2.01 million tonnes to 4.00 million tonnes (+98.9%). This near-doubling of import volumes signals a deepening reliance on external suppliers to meet EU domestic demand for non-seat furniture.

The near-stability of average import prices (−2.8%) confirms that the value surge was volume-driven rather than the result of price inflation at the border. The EU has been absorbing ever-larger physical quantities of furniture from non-EU producers at broadly constant unit costs.

1.2 Export growth was positive but modest in comparison

EU exports of CN 9403 grew by only 13.4% in value over the same period, from €11.49 billion to €13.03 billion. Notably, export volumes actually declined by 6.9% (from 3.23 to 3.01 million tonnes), while export unit prices rose by 21.8% — from €3,555/t to €4,332/t (General Overview).

This pattern suggests that EU furniture exporters have been moving up the value chain: shipping fewer tonnes at higher average prices. In contrast, importers have been competing primarily on volume and cost.

1.3 The trade surplus eroded sharply

The EU's trade surplus in CN 9403 shrank by 56.6% over the decade, falling from €6.12 billion to €2.66 billion. While the EU remains a net exporter of other furniture, the margin of its competitive advantage has narrowed significantly. The net import reliance indicator improved from −10.5% to −5.3% (where negative values indicate a net exporter position), reflecting a 49.7% erosion in the EU's export overhang.

2. China's dominance and the reshaping of the import supply base

2.1 China consolidated its position as the EU's primary furniture supplier

The single most striking feature of the import data is the explosive growth in EU imports from China. Chinese shipments rose from €2.81 billion in 2015 to €6.29 billion in 2025, an increase of 123.6% (by-country data). China now accounts for well over half of all EU imports of other furniture by value — a concentration level that has grown substantially over the period.

2.2 Emerging suppliers grew from low bases — Ukraine's dramatic rise

Several smaller suppliers posted eye-catching growth rates. Ukraine's furniture exports to the EU surged by 954.5%, from €41 million to €431 million. Türkiye grew by 188.1%, and India by 136.1%. These shifts suggest that some EU buyers have been diversifying supply chains — partly in response to geopolitical risk, cost considerations, and the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area — though these countries collectively still represent a fraction of China's dominance.

2.3 Belarus collapsed under sanctions pressure

In stark contrast, EU imports from Belarus fell from €33 million to virtually zero (€784), a decline of 100.0%. This collapse is directly attributable to EU sanctions imposed following the geopolitical events of 2022, which effectively cut Belarusian furniture exports from the EU market. The Belarus case illustrates how quickly trade flows can be disrupted by policy action.

2.4 Import concentration intensified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose by 30.6%, from 2,945 to 3,847. This places the import market in the "moderately concentrated" range by standard antitrust benchmarks, and the upward trend is a signal of increasing supply-side risk. A growing share of EU furniture imports is sourced from a single country — China — creating vulnerability to disruptions, whether from trade policy, logistics crises, or geopolitical escalation.

3. European production pivots to higher value while export geography holds steady

3.1 EU production volumes declined but output values rose substantially

Despite the import surge, EU domestic production of other furniture did not simply wither away. According to production data, production quantity fell by 25.6% (from 1.72 billion kg to 1.28 billion kg), while production value rose by 34.8% (from €43.9 billion to €59.2 billion). This divergence implies a significant increase in the average value per kilogram of EU-manufactured furniture — consistent with a strategic shift toward higher-end, design-intensive, or customised products that are harder to compete against on cost alone.

3.2 Export destinations remained stable, with the UK and US as anchors

The EU's top export partners for CN 9403 remained broadly unchanged over the period. The United Kingdom (€2.59 billion, +20.2%) and the United States (€2.59 billion, +49.6%) together absorbed nearly 40% of all EU exports (by-country exports). Switzerland, Norway, and the UAE formed a stable second tier.

The notable exception was China, where EU exports fell by 22.2% (from €532 million to €414 million) — a mirror image of the import surge in the other direction. This widening bilateral deficit underscores the one-directional nature of EU-China trade in this sector.

3.3 Price shocks in 2022 reflected a broader inflationary environment

The shock detection analysis identified significant price anomalies centred on 2022 for exports to the United States (+32.0%), Canada (+29.4%), and Russia (+93.1%). These coincided with the post-pandemic supply-chain disruptions, the energy-price spike linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and general inflationary pressures. The Russian case — a 93.1% price jump — likely reflects both sanctions-related trade restrictions and the rouble's volatility.

3.4 Eastern European members emerged as specialised exporters

Within the EU, the specialisation analysis reveals a clear geographic pattern. Lithuania (RSCA 0.75), Poland (0.50), and Portugal (0.31) are the most specialised EU exporters of CN 9403. Poland's case is particularly noteworthy: it accounted for 19.8% of EU furniture production in 2025 and grew its exports by 45.7% over the period, consolidating its role as a major European furniture manufacturing hub.

At the opposite end, Ireland, Malta, and Luxembourg showed negative revealed comparative advantage, consistent with their economic profiles. Italy remained the EU's largest single exporter (€3.97 billion in 2025), though its growth was a modest 4.4% over the decade — suggesting a mature, high-value segment with limited volume expansion.

3.5 Product mix: Wooden furniture dominates, but parts categories gained importance

On the export side, wooden furniture (CN 940360) remained the largest sub-category at €3.70 billion, followed by bedroom wooden furniture (940350, €1.46 billion) and kitchen wooden furniture (940340, €1.71 billion). The "parts of furniture" categories (940391 and 940399), which only became separately reportable from 2022, already represented a combined €2.72 billion in EU exports by 2025 — indicating a significant component trade that reflects integrated European supply chains.

On the import side, the largest segments were metal furniture (940320, €3.63 billion) and wooden furniture (940360, €2.87 billion). Plastic furniture (940370) was a smaller but growing import category, rising from €331 million to €369 million (+11.6%).

Conclusion

The EU trade landscape for other furniture (CN 9403) over 2015–2025 is characterised by a fundamental asymmetry: exports held their ground in value terms through a shift toward higher unit prices, while imports surged in both volume and absolute value, led overwhelmingly by China. The result has been a halving of the EU's trade surplus in this sector.

Several structural trends are worth monitoring going forward. First, the growing concentration of imports in China (HHI rising 30.6%) poses a supply-chain vulnerability that may prompt further diversification efforts. Second, the emergence of Eastern European member states — particularly Poland and Lithuania — as specialised furniture exporters reflects the internal restructuring of the European furniture industry toward cost-competitive production bases within the single market. Third, the dramatic decline in Belarusian exports and the surge in Ukrainian exports illustrate how quickly geopolitical developments can reshape trade flows.

The EU's furniture sector appears to be evolving along a familiar pattern: higher domestic production values coexisting with rising import penetration at the lower end of the market. Whether this trajectory continues will depend on factors including EU-China trade relations, energy costs, consumer demand, and the speed of supply-chain diversification toward emerging suppliers such as Türkiye, India, and Viet Nam.