Market evolution: Mattresses and bedding (CN 9404) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of Combined Nomenclature code 9404 — a broad product grouping encompassing mattress supports, mattresses (spring, foam, and other), quilts, duvets, sleeping bags, cushions, and similar stuffed furnishing articles — for the European Union's extra-EU trade over the period 2015–2025. Over this decade, the EU's import bill for these products nearly doubled while export growth remained comparatively modest, resulting in a structural shift from near trade balance to a pronounced deficit. The data reveals a market shaped by three main dynamics: a surge in import volumes largely driven by China and emerging Asian suppliers, a growing specialisation of Central and Eastern European producers in export markets, and a notable divergence between falling import prices and rising export prices that signals both cost competition from third countries and EU producers moving upmarket.

For full definitions and the complete product scope, see the Overview.

1. A Structural Shift from Near Balance to Deep Deficit

1.1 Import growth has far outpaced export growth

The most striking feature of the EU's extra-EU trade in CN 9404 over 2015–2025 is the widening gap between imports and exports. EU imports rose from €1.27 billion in 2015 to €2.28 billion in 2025, an increase of +79.7% in value. Over the same period, imports in tonnage surged by +115.9%, from 232,542 tonnes to 501,964 tonnes — meaning the EU roughly doubled the physical volume of bedding products it sourced from outside the bloc. By contrast, EU exports grew from €1.01 billion to €1.31 billion (+29.4% in value) and from 143,338 to 155,381 tonnes (+8.4% in volume).

Source: General Overview

1.2 Net import reliance has increased nearly sixfold

The EU's net import reliance — the share of apparent consumption satisfied by net imports — rose from just 1.9% in 2015 to 11.5% in 2025, an increase of +495.8%. This is a dramatic shift for what has traditionally been a domestically oriented sector. Over the same period, the EU's trade intensity — the combined share of imports and exports relative to production — climbed from 15.9% to 36.8%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) doubled from 7.7% to 17.5%. These indicators point to a sector that is simultaneously importing more to meet domestic demand and exporting more — but with import growth vastly outstripping export growth.

1.3 Domestic production grew in value but stagnated in volume

EU production volumes actually declined slightly over the period, from 279 million items in 2015 to 270 million items in 2025 (−3.4%), while production value rose from €6.0 billion to €7.3 billion (+21.1%). This combination — higher production value on lower volumes, alongside surging import volumes — suggests that EU manufacturers have responded to import competition partly by shifting toward higher-value, premium product segments, while lower-cost volume production has increasingly been sourced from third countries.

2. Geographic Rebalancing: China's Dominance and Emerging Supplier Diversification

2.1 China remains the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, but its share faces pressure from new entrants

China was the EU's single largest supplier of CN 9404 products throughout the period, with imports rising from €794 million in 2015 to €1.44 billion in 2025 (+81.8%). However, while China's absolute value grew, several smaller suppliers grew much faster in percentage terms, indicating a gradual — if still early-stage — diversification of the EU's import base.

Source: Partners

2.2 Geopolitical events have reshaped some bilateral trade flows

The data reveals the imprint of geopolitical disruptions. Belarus, which supplied €9.8 million worth of CN 9404 products to the EU in 2015, saw its trade collapse to virtually zero (€416) by 2025 (−100%), consistent with EU sanctions. Conversely, Ukraine expanded its exports to the EU from €29 million to €56 million (+92.7%), though this trajectory was interrupted by the 2022 invasion — a year in which an export price shock to Ukraine was detected (abnormality score of 22.6, price shift of +24.8%). The United Kingdom — the EU's largest extra-EU export destination — saw relatively stable import flows from the EU (€71 million in both 2015 and 2025, +1.0%), suggesting that post-Brexit trade arrangements have preserved existing patterns for this product category, even as the UK became a more important export market for the EU (+55.3%, from €190 million to €295 million).

2.3 Import concentration has slightly increased, while export markets remain fragmented

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners rose from 4,048 in 2015 to 4,175 in 2025 (+3.1%), confirming that despite the growth of Türkiye, India, and the Philippines, the import market remains heavily concentrated on China. On the export side, the HHI was much lower (1,136 → 1,179, +3.8%), reflecting a more diversified destination portfolio across the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, the United States, Korea, and others. The volatility analysis also confirms this pattern: export flows to Switzerland (CV of 0.036) and the UK (CV of 0.119) are among the most stable, while export flows to the United States are exceptionally volatile (CV of 0.785), likely reflecting the sensitivity of US-bound shipments to exchange rate fluctuations and policy shifts.

2.4 EU-internal specialisation is geographically concentrated

Within the EU, the most specialised producers and exporters of CN 9404 products are concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe. In 2025, the five members with the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) were:

Poland stands out as both the most specialised large economy and the EU's third-largest extra-EU exporter (€192 million in 2025), behind only Germany (€226 million) and Denmark (€220 million). The least specialised members are Malta, Luxembourg, Ireland, Finland, and Cyprus — countries that are net importers of bedding products with negligible production.

3. Diverging Price Dynamics and Product-Level Shifts

3.1 Import prices have fallen while export prices have risen — a clear dual trend

One of the most significant dynamics in the data is the divergence between import and export unit values. Over 2015–2025, the average import price fell from €5,463 per tonne to €4,548 per tonne (−16.7%), while the average export price rose from €7,059 to €8,427 per tonne (+19.4%). This 36-percentage-point divergence suggests that EU producers are increasingly competing on quality and brand in higher-price segments, while import competition — primarily from China — has driven down the cost of entry-level and mid-range products. The falling import price occurred even as the composition of imports shifted toward heavier, traditionally lower-unit-value categories such as mattresses, reinforcing the interpretation that third-country producers are offering increasingly competitive pricing.

3.2 All product subcategories experienced strong import growth, but mattresses led the surge

The segment-level data reveals that the import surge was not limited to one product type but was broadly based across all subcategories.

¹ 940440 data available from 2022 onward.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

The most dramatic growth occurred in 940429 (mattresses other than foam or spring — e.g., stuffed or filled mattresses), where import volumes quintupled from 22,520 to 110,236 tonnes and values more than tripled. 940421 (foam mattresses) also saw volumes quadruple. Both categories experienced declining unit prices in imports — 940429 import prices fell from €4,955/t to €3,463/t (−30.1%), and 940421 from €6,282/t to €4,242/t (−32.5%) — confirming that low-cost producers (predominantly in China) are aggressively expanding their presence in the EU mattress market.

3.3 Export price divergence confirms EU producers are moving upmarket

On the export side, the price dynamics tell a contrasting story. EU export prices for key subcategories rose over the period:

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

The rising export prices, combined with relatively flat or declining export volumes, are consistent with EU manufacturers specialising in higher-quality, higher-margin products. In subcategory 940410 (mattress supports), for example, export volumes fell from 28,491 tonnes to 18,365 tonnes (−35.5%) while values declined only from €115 million to €81 million (−29.2%), indicating a shift toward premium products. Sleeping bags — a niche category with the highest unit values — saw export prices nearly reach €28,635 per tonne, with the EU exporting high-specification outdoor equipment to markets such as the US, Japan, and Korea.

3.4 Price shocks in 2022 reflect the broader macroeconomic turbulence

The year 2022 stands out for a cluster of detected price shocks, coinciding with the energy price spike, post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war. Three events were flagged:

• EU exports to Ukraine — price abnormality of 22.6, shift of +24.8% (value share 1.6%), likely linked to emergency demand and disrupted local supply.
• EU exports to Japan — price abnormality of 16.1, shift of +33.2% (value share 4.3%), possibly reflecting logistics cost pass-through.
• EU imports from India — price abnormality of 7.4, shift of +34.2% (value share 8.3%), consistent with rising raw material and energy input costs in Indian manufacturing.

These shocks were largely transitory: by 2025, Indian import prices had retreated, and Ukrainian trade normalised as supply chains adapted. Nevertheless, they illustrate the sector's exposure to macroeconomic and geopolitical disruptions, particularly given the high import concentration on a limited number of suppliers.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU market for CN 9404 products underwent a fundamental structural transformation. The Union shifted from near self-sufficiency (net import reliance of 1.9%) to meaningful external dependence (11.5%), driven by an import volume surge of +115.9% — overwhelmingly from China, but increasingly supplemented by Türkiye, India, and the Philippines. This import boom was concentrated in mattresses (both foam and other types), where import volumes quintupled and unit prices fell by 30–33%, pointing to intense cost competition from low-wage manufacturing centres. EU producers responded by moving upmarket: export prices rose by +19.4% on average, production values grew by +21.1% even as output volumes stagnated, and the sector's export propensity doubled. Central and Eastern European members — notably Poland, but also the Baltic states, Bulgaria, and Romania — emerged as the EU's most specialised exporters, leveraging competitive labour costs and geographic proximity to Western European markets. Looking ahead, the growing trade deficit, rising import concentration on China, and the structural price divergence between imports and exports all warrant continued monitoring, particularly in the context of EU trade defence and industrial competitiveness policy.