Market evolution: Pillows and cushions (CN 940490) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of products classified under Combined Nomenclature (CN) code 940490, which primarily covers pillows, cushions, pouffes, and similar stuffed furnishings excluding mattresses, quilts, and sleeping bags. The analysis period spans from 2015 to 2025, drawing on EU trade data with non-EU partners. Over this decade, the EU market for these products has undergone a significant structural transformation, characterized by surging import dependency, diverging price trends between imports and exports, and increased market volatility. These dynamics reflect broader shifts in global supply chains, post-pandemic adjustments, and evolving European production and consumption patterns.

1. Surging Import Dependency and a Shifting Supplier Landscape

The most defining feature of the period is the EU's rapidly growing reliance on imported goods from outside the bloc. This section examines the scale of this import surge and the evolving geographical concentration of suppliers.

Total imports grew faster than the domestic market

While EU domestic production of articles of bedding increased by 11.2% in volume over the period, the growth in imports was far more pronounced. The EU's net import reliance (the share of domestic consumption satisfied by net imports) tripled from 9.1% in 2015 to 29.2% in 2025. This indicates that the expansion of the EU market has been primarily served by imports rather than domestic production.

China remains the dominant but slightly less concentrated source

China is the overwhelmingly largest supplier, but its share has seen some erosion. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value decreased by 7.9%, suggesting a slight diversification of sources. Nevertheless, China's imports grew by 17.6% in value.

Significant growth from emerging European and South Asian suppliers

Several suppliers dramatically increased their market share, indicating a trend of nearshoring and diversification:

Source: EU trade with top partners by value

2. A Tale of Two Prices: Import Stagnation vs. Export Premiumization

A critical dynamic is the divergent evolution of unit prices for EU imports and exports, which significantly impacted the overall trade balance.

Import prices were flat while export prices soared

The average price per tonne for EU imports decreased slightly by 8.8%, settling at €5,234 in 2025. In contrast, the export price per tonne increased by 38.6% to €12,070.

The value composition reveals a high-end niche

The trade data distinguishes between feather/down-filled articles (CN 94049010) and others (CN 94049090). This breakdown reveals the source of the price divergence:

Source: Product segment breakdown

This shows that while imports are overwhelmingly in lower-value "other" stuffing materials, a significant portion of exports consists of high-value feather/down products. This indicates EU exporters are successfully targeting premium segments, leveraging quality and design. The static import prices suggest intense competition at the mass-market end, predominantly supplied by China.

3. Increased Volatility and Post-Pandemic Realignment

The market experienced periods of significant disruption, particularly around 2022, followed by a realignment that altered trade patterns and exposed vulnerabilities.

Major price and supply shocks occurred in 2022

The analysis detected several supply shocks centered on 2022, linked to global logistics disruptions and the energy crisis:

• Exports to Japan: A price shock with an abnormality score of 50.7, indicating a price shift of +51.7%.
• Exports to Türkiye: A price shock with a shift of +105.7%.
• Imports from India: A price shock with a shift of +31.9%.

These shocks likely reflect scrambled supply chains and cost pressures being passed through the value chain.

Volatility varies widely by partner

The coefficient of variation (CV) in trade flows highlights partners with stable versus volatile trade relationships. For instance, imports from China had a low CV (0.14), showing steady growth, while imports from Ukraine were highly volatile (CV of 0.45), likely impacted by geopolitical events.

The post-2021 correction and rebalancing

The peak year for imports was 2021, when the value reached €1.43 billion and quantity hit 266,243 tonnes, indicative of restocking and pent-up demand. A sharp correction occurred in 2022-2023, followed by a recovery in 2024-2025. This cycle, combined with the persistent rise in export unit values, suggests the EU market is stabilizing at a higher import-reliance level but with a clearer dual-track structure: mass imports and premium exports.

Conclusion

The EU market for pillows and cushions has become fundamentally more globalized and segmented between 2015 and 2025. Its defining characteristics are a tripled import reliance, driven by cost-competitive suppliers from Asia and increasingly from Europe's periphery. Concurrently, EU exporters have capitalized on high-value niches, particularly feather/down products, achieving premium pricing in foreign markets.

The period also revealed the market's vulnerability to global shocks, as seen in the 2022 price spikes. Looking forward, the trends suggest a continued reliance on imported goods for the mainstream market, but with an ongoing strategic pivot among EU producers toward premiumization and, potentially, nearshoring to more stable, closer locations like Türkiye and the Western Balkans to mitigate future volatility. The market's evolution is a clear case study in global value chain adjustment within a single, mature product category.