Market evolution: Pillows and cushions (CN 94049090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The EU market for pillows, cushions, and similar stuffed furnishings (CN 94049090) underwent significant structural changes between 2015 and 2025. Over this decade, the EU's trade balance with non-EU countries deteriorated substantially, driven by a surge in imports that outpaced export growth. While the value of both imports and exports increased, the underlying quantity trends diverged, revealing a story of rising unit prices for exports and continued volume expansion for imports. This report analyses the key dynamics of this period, focusing on the EU's growing import dependency, its geographical trade partnerships, and the sector's production and resilience.

1. The Import-Dependency Pivot

The decade was characterized by a fundamental shift towards greater reliance on non-EU supplies, widening the trade deficit.

The Widening Trade Deficit

The EU's trade deficit for CN 94049090 products expanded dramatically. In value terms, the deficit grew from -€425.9 million in 2015 to -€623.9 million in 2025, a deterioration of 46.5%. This was fueled by a 33.4% increase in import value (from €794.1 million to €1.06 billion) against an 18.4% rise in export value (from €368.1 million to €435.7 million).

Quantity-Value Divergence: A Tale of Two Markets

A closer look at volumes and unit prices reveals contrasting pressures on imports and exports.

This indicates that import growth was volume-driven, with the EU absorbing significantly more tonnes at slightly lower average prices. In contrast, export growth was entirely price-driven, as the EU shipped fewer goods but at much higher values, suggesting a shift towards premium or specialized products in its export basket.

Soaring Net Import Reliance

The most striking metric is the EU's net import reliance, which measures imports as a percentage of apparent consumption. It skyrocketed from a modest 5.3% in 2015 to 34.5% in 2025, a 553.9% increase. This confirms a structural pivot in the EU's sourcing for these articles, moving from near self-sufficiency to a position of substantial dependency on non-EU production.

2. Geographical Rebalancing: Away from China?

The EU's import sources show a story of continued dominance by one partner, coupled with notable growth from several others, while export patterns remained more stable.

China's Enduring Dominance and EU Diversification Efforts

China was the overwhelmingly dominant supplier throughout the period, its import value growing 29.3% from €547.2 million in 2015 to €707.5 million in 2025. Despite this growth, there are signs of diversification. Several other partners grew at a much faster pace, albeit from smaller bases:

• Türkiye: +69.8%
• North Macedonia: +159.7%
• Pakistan: +154.8%

These three nations, along with India, saw their collective share in EU imports increase, indicating efforts to broaden supply chains. The concentration of imports, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), declined slightly from 4900 to 4649, supporting this narrative of a gradual, though incomplete, diversification.

Stable Yet Evolving Export Destinations

The EU's export geography was less concentrated and more stable. The United Kingdom, Switzerland, and the United States remained the top three destinations. Notably, exports to South Korea (+72.9%) and Ukraine (+198.3%) grew significantly, while those to traditional partner Norway saw a slight decline (-11.9%).

3. Production, Specialisation, and Shocks

Domestic EU production grew, but its relationship with trade intensified, while the sector faced specific geopolitical shocks.

EU Production Growth Amidst Intensifying Trade

The EU's domestic production of CN 94049090 articles expanded. Production quantity increased by 10.8% (from 168.4 million items to 186.7 million items) and production value rose by 25.0% (from €1.16 billion to €1.45 billion). Despite this growth, the trade intensity—the sum of imports and exports as a share of production—nearly doubled from 33.7% to 65.6%. This highlights that the EU market became significantly more integrated into global trade flows over the decade.

A Two-Speed EU: Specialised Producers and Consumer Nations

Within the EU, specialisation varied widely. Countries like Estonia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Poland showed strong revealed comparative advantage (high RSCA scores), acting as major production and export hubs. In contrast, larger economies like Ireland and Finland were net importers with negative specialization. This internal division of labor meant that rising import reliance impacted different Member States differently.

Shocks and Volatility: The 2022 Inflection Point

The volatility of trade was generally moderate for major partners. However, the data detects significant price shocks in 2022:

• Exports to Japan: A price abnormality of 23.4 and a 61.9% price shift.
• Exports to Russia: A price abnormality of 9.1 and a 102.9% price shift.

These shocks coincide with the post-pandemic supply chain crisis and the onset of geopolitical tensions, suggesting that EU exporters were able to pass on significant cost increases or capitalise on supply shortages in specific markets during that year.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 period for EU trade in pillows and cushions (CN 94049090) was defined by a decisive turn towards import dependency. The market expanded, but growth was overwhelmingly satisfied by non-EU suppliers, particularly China, leading to a record trade deficit. EU exports, meanwhile, demonstrated a capacity for value over volume, pointing to a possible shift upmarket. While EU production grew, it became more intertwined with global trade, and the bloc's internal landscape featured specialized producer nations alongside major importing economies. The data underscores the EU's increased vulnerability to external supply dynamics, a vulnerability that was briefly stress-tested by the price shocks of 2022. The decade closed with the EU's market for these articles more open, more dependent on imports, and more integrated into global trade than ever before.