Market evolution: Lighting fixtures (CN 9405) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in lighting fixtures and related products classified under CN 9405 over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers a broad range of luminaires, lighting fittings, searchlights, spotlights, illuminated signs, and their parts, encompassing 15 subheadings that include both LED-specific and traditional lighting technologies. During this eleven-year window, the EU lighting market underwent a dramatic structural transformation driven by the LED revolution, a shifting global supply chain, and major geopolitical events. EU exports remained broadly stable in value but declined sharply in volume, while imports grew substantially in both dimensions. The trade deficit nearly doubled, and import concentration—dominated overwhelmingly by China—intensified. At the same time, EU production pivoted decisively toward higher-value LED products even as unit volumes fell. This report analyses these dynamics across three thematic sections, drawing on trade value, volume, pricing, partner data, and concentration metrics.

I. The LED transition reshapes production and trade composition

EU production shifted from volume to value

One of the most striking structural changes in the EU lighting industry over 2015–2025 was the simultaneous decline in production volume and growth in production value. EU output measured in number of items fell from approximately 389 million pieces in 2015 to about 203 million pieces in 2025, a decline of 47.9%. Over the same period, production value rose from €7.8 billion to €10.5 billion, an increase of 34.1%. This divergence points to a fundamental shift in the product mix: the EU moved away from high-volume, lower-value traditional lighting and toward fewer but more valuable LED-based and smart fixtures. The steep drop in unit count reflects the phase-out of incandescent, halogen, and fluorescent technologies, while the value increase signals that European manufacturers captured higher margins in premium LED segments.

LED subheadings now dominate EU imports

The data on product segment breakdown confirms that LED products have become the primary drivers of EU import trade. Although detailed subheading data is only available from 2022 onward, the figures are revealing. In 2025, the two largest import categories by value were:

Together, the two LED-specific subheadings (940511 and 940542) accounted for roughly €4.5 billion of EU imports in 2025—more than half the total. Their import volumes were also the largest, at 368,000 tonnes combined. The traditional (non-LED) subheadings such as 940519 (non-LED ceiling/wall fittings) and 940529 (non-LED table/floor lamps) were smaller in both value and volume, reflecting the declining market share of legacy technologies.

Import prices for LED products are converging downward

A noteworthy trend within the LED import segment is the steady decline in unit prices. Between 2022 and 2025:

This price erosion reflects the maturation of LED technology, economies of scale in Asian manufacturing, and intensifying price competition among exporters. Importantly, even as import prices fell, EU export prices for LED products rose significantly—for instance, 940511 export prices increased from €41,528/t in 2022 to €50,102/t in 2025 (+20.6%). This widening price gap underscores that the EU specialises in higher-value, more design-intensive or technically sophisticated lighting products, while basic LED fixtures are increasingly commoditised and sourced from Asia.

II. China's dominance deepens as alternative suppliers emerge at the margin

China consolidated its position as the EU's overwhelmingly dominant supplier

The most defining feature of EU import dynamics in lighting fixtures is the overwhelming dominance of China. In 2015, imports from China stood at €5.1 billion, representing roughly 80% of all extra-EU imports. By 2025, this had grown to €6.7 billion (+33.3%), and China's share remained dominant. The peak year was reached around 2022, when imports from China hit €8.2 billion, before easing somewhat thereafter. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration rose from 6,498 in 2015 to 7,208 in 2025 (an increase of 10.9%), confirming that the market became more—not less—concentrated on a single supplier. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered highly concentrated; at over 7,000, the EU's import market for lighting fixtures is exceptionally dominated by one source.

Emerging suppliers grew from a low base but remain marginal

While China's dominance deepened, several smaller suppliers posted impressive growth rates, albeit from very low starting points:

Viet Nam's tripling of exports to the EU and Türkiye's near-doubling may reflect supply chain diversification strategies and, in the case of Türkiye, geographic proximity. However, even combined, these three suppliers accounted for only about €164 million in 2025—roughly 2% of total imports. Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw its role decline sharply (from €89M to €33M, −62.3%), likely reflecting the shift of trade flows directly to mainland China.

EU exports to Russia collapsed following geopolitical disruptions

On the export side, the most dramatic shift was the near-total collapse of EU exports to the Russian Federation. From €264 million in 2015, exports fell to just €66 million in 2025—a decline of 74.9%. The sharpest drops occurred after 2022, coinciding with the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia had been the EU's sixth-largest export market in 2015; by 2025 it had fallen out of the top tier. This loss was only partially offset by gains elsewhere: exports to Switzerland grew by 30.6% (to €640M), to the United States by 18.7% (to €598M), and to Saudi Arabia by 25.9% (to €192M). Exports to the United Kingdom—the EU's single largest export destination—declined by 14.7%, possibly linked to post-Brexit trade frictions.

Member states diverged in their roles within EU trade

Within the EU, member-state roles shifted considerably. Germany remained the largest importer (€1.59B in 2025, though down 11.7% from 2015) and the largest exporter (€1.06B, down 9.1%). Poland emerged as a notable growth story: its exports grew by 74.1% (to €252M) and its imports more than doubled (+103.3%, to €584M), reflecting its role as both a growing manufacturing base and a major re-export hub. The Netherlands and France also saw import growth of 42.6% and 48.6% respectively, likely driven by their roles as logistics hubs and large consumer markets. The specialisation data confirms that Austria (RCA 2.00), Denmark (RCA 2.01), and Poland (RCA 1.89) have comparative advantages in lighting exports, while Ireland (RCA 0.06) and Malta (RCA 0.06) are the least specialised.

III. Rising import dependence and widening structural deficit

The EU trade deficit in lighting fixtures nearly doubled

The EU has run a persistent trade deficit in lighting fixtures throughout the period. In 2015, the deficit stood at approximately −€2.0 billion. By 2025, it had widened to −€3.7 billion, a deterioration of 87.7%. The deficit peaked at approximately −€5.2 billion around 2022, before narrowing somewhat as import values receded from their post-pandemic highs. The widening gap was driven by the divergence between rising imports (+27.0% in value) and essentially flat exports (−1.1% in value). When measured in net import reliance, the shift was even more dramatic: the metric rose from 0.7% in 2015 to 26.8% in 2025, a change of 3,659%. This indicates that the EU has become significantly more dependent on external sources for its lighting fixture supply.

Import volume grew while export volume contracted

The volume data tells a complementary story. EU import volumes rose from 628,128 tonnes in 2015 to 761,654 tonnes in 2025 (+21.3%), while export volumes fell from 159,094 tonnes to 107,698 tonnes (−32.3%). The decline in export volume despite stable export value is explained by a sharp rise in export unit prices (from €27,090/t to €39,568/t, +46.1%), which further confirms the EU's specialisation in higher-value, lower-volume products. By contrast, import unit prices rose only modestly (from €10,030/t to €10,502/t, +4.7%), consistent with the commoditisation of standard LED fixtures.

The following table summarises the key aggregate trade indicators:

Trade intensity and export propensity both surged

Two additional metrics from the vulnerability analysis underscore the EU's increasing integration into global lighting trade. Trade intensity (the share of production that is traded internationally) rose from 26.8% to 65.8% (+145.3%). Export propensity (exports as a share of production) grew from 15.2% to 39.6% (+161.2%). These figures indicate that the EU lighting sector has become far more outward-looking, but also more exposed to global competitive pressures and supply disruptions. The salience analysis identifies export propensity as the most dynamically growing indicator, suggesting that European producers are increasingly oriented toward international markets even as domestic production volumes decline.

Price shocks in 2022 highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities

The volatility analysis reveals that 2022 was a year of significant price disruption. A major price shock on imports from China was detected, with an abnormality score of 4.0 and a year-on-year price shift of +31.3% centred on 2022. This coincided with the global supply chain disruptions of the post-COVID period, elevated shipping costs, and energy price spikes. A simultaneous price shock on EU exports to Saudi Arabia (abnormality 5.6, +96.0% shift) suggests that pricing dynamics in downstream markets were equally volatile. Over the full period, import volatility was lowest for China (coefficient of variation 0.09) and Viet Nam (0.09), reflecting the stability and scale of these supply relationships, while smaller suppliers like Serbia (0.68) and the United Kingdom (0.42) showed much higher variability.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU market for lighting fixtures (CN 9405) underwent a profound transformation shaped by three converging forces: the technological transition to LEDs, the deepening of China-centric global supply chains, and the geopolitical ruptures of the early 2020s. EU production pivoted decisively toward higher-value LED products, with unit volumes falling by nearly half while output value rose by a third. Imports grew steadily, driven overwhelmingly by China, which accounts for the vast majority of extra-EU supply and whose share grew even as alternative suppliers like Viet Nam and Türkiye emerged at the margin. The EU's trade deficit widened from €2 billion to €3.7 billion, and net import reliance surged to nearly 27%. Meanwhile, EU exports remained broadly stable in value but contracted in volume, with the loss of the Russian market partially offset by growth in Switzerland, the United States, and the Gulf states. The data paints a picture of an EU lighting industry that is increasingly specialised and high-value, but also increasingly dependent on a concentrated global supply chain—one that proved vulnerable to price shocks in 2022 and remains heavily reliant on a single dominant partner.