Market evolution: Wicker furniture (CN 940389) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in goods classified under CN 940389 — furniture of materials other than metal, wood, plastic, bamboo or rattan, including cane, osier and similar materials. This residual category captures wicker furniture, basketry-based furniture, and pieces made from non-traditional or composite materials, excluding seats and medical furniture.

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU trade in this product class underwent significant structural transformation. Trade value increased on both the export and import sides, but the underlying volumes evolved very differently. The EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter, driven above all by Italy, while import sourcing diversified away from China toward emerging suppliers such as India and Viet Nam. At the same time, domestic production volumes collapsed even as their stated value surged — a paradox that points to repositioning at the premium end of the market and possible data reporting changes.

The three main sections that follow analyse the pricing revolution in EU exports, the geographic reconfiguration of import sourcing, and the tensions revealed by production and vulnerability indicators.

1. A pricing revolution: higher value, lower volumes

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between volume and value trends on the export side. EU export quantities fell by more than half, yet export revenues rose by nearly 40%. This was driven by a dramatic increase in unit values, suggesting a fundamental shift in the nature of what the EU sells abroad.

1.1 Export values grew while volumes collapsed

The headline figures for EU exports are as follows:

The export unit price nearly tripled over the decade, rising from €6,337 per tonne to €18,048 per tonne. This is an extraordinarily steep increase — far beyond what general inflation or raw material cost increases could explain on their own.

1.2 Italy dominates the EU export landscape

The concentration of exports among EU Member States reveals a clear leader. Italy alone accounts for over 60% of EU exports by value in 2025:

Italy's dominance is consistent with the country's broader positioning in design-intensive furniture and artisanal production. Italy also shows the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) among large economies, at 0.57 in 2025, confirming its structural specialisation in this product class. France and Spain also grew strongly, while Germany and Poland saw declines.

1.3 The premium pivot: from mass-produced to design-led

The divergence between a 37.9% increase in value and a 51.6% decrease in volume points to a premium repositioning of EU exports. Several complementary explanations are plausible:

• Design and brand value: EU producers, especially Italian ones, may have shifted toward higher-end, artisanal or designer wicker furniture that commands substantially higher prices per unit of weight.
• Production offshoring of low-end items: Lower-value, heavier wicker products may have been progressively moved to non-EU production sites (explaining the fall in volumes), while the EU retained production of lighter, higher-value pieces.
• Reporting changes: Some of the price escalation may reflect evolving classification practices or a shift in the product mix captured by this residual code.

Notably, export production volumes (in items) dropped by 64.3%, from 3.9 million items in 2015 to 1.4 million in 2025, while production value more than doubled from €194 million to €460 million. This reinforces the premium-pivot hypothesis: fewer items, higher prices.

2. Import geography shifts: China stable, Asia rising

While the export story is about pricing and value, the import story is about geography. The EU's import base diversified markedly over the decade, with several Asian and neighbouring countries gaining significant share at the margins, though China remained the dominant supplier.

2.1 China remained the anchor supplier but lost relative ground

China was and remains the largest single source of EU imports, with import value rising from €83.7 million in 2015 to €129.8 million in 2025 (+55.1%). However, China's growth rate was well below the overall EU import growth of 77.3%, implying a loss of market share. China's import volatility is also the lowest among the main partners (CV of 0.14), indicating a stable, structural trade relationship.

2.2 India, Viet Nam and Türkiye emerged as fast-growing suppliers

The most dramatic shifts occurred among three countries:

India's growth is particularly noteworthy: from under €1 million to over €17 million, representing a near-twentyfold increase. India's import volatility (CV of 0.77) is high, however, suggesting that this growth has been lumpy rather than smooth — likely driven by specific sourcing decisions by large EU retailers or manufacturers. Viet Nam, meanwhile, offers a more stable growth trajectory (CV of 0.40), consistent with the country's broader emergence as a furniture manufacturing hub.

2.3 Import concentration decreased, indicating diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell from 4,920 to 3,926 over the period (−20.2%). While this still indicates a moderately concentrated import structure (largely dominated by China), the decline confirms that supply sources are broadening. This trend reduces single-country dependency risk and is consistent with the EU's broader strategic push toward supply chain diversification.

2.4 France, Spain and the Netherlands drove import growth

On the EU importer side, three countries stood out:

The Netherlands' tripling of imports may partly reflect its role as a logistics hub for EU-wide distribution (Rotterdam effect). Spain's strong growth could reflect both domestic demand and re-export activity. Germany, despite its large economy, grew only modestly on the import side.

3. Autonomy, vulnerability and persistent trade surplus

The EU maintained a consistently positive trade balance throughout the period, and its net exporter position actually strengthened in value terms. However, the picture is more nuanced when considering production declines and concentration risks.

3.1 The EU is a persistent and growing net exporter

The EU trade balance moved from +€238.6 million in 2015 to +€281.2 million in 2025 (+17.9%). The net import reliance remained deeply negative (from −88.2% to −149.6%), confirming that the EU exports substantially more than it imports. In other words, the EU is not dependent on external supply for this product category — it is a net supplier to the world.

3.2 Export concentration is low, but import concentration remains a concern

The export HHI of 889 in 2025 indicates a highly diversified export base — the EU sells to many different partners, with the United States (€113.6 M), Switzerland (€62.6 M), United Kingdom (€43.4 M) and China (€27.7 M) as the top destinations. However, the UK and Russia — historically important markets — saw export declines of 16.3% and 40.5% respectively, while the United States nearly doubled as a destination (+96.4%).

On the import side, the HHI of 3,926 indicates moderate concentration, still dominated by China. This is a structural vulnerability: if geopolitical or logistical disruptions were to affect Chinese supply, the EU could face short-term sourcing challenges, even though the overall trade balance remains strongly in the EU's favour.

3.3 Specialisation is geographically concentrated within the EU

Specialisation data for 2025 reveals a clear East-West divide:

Poland, Lithuania and Italy stand out as the EU's most specialised producers/exporters in this category. Italy's position aligns with its design and artisanal furniture tradition. Poland and Lithuania's specialisation may reflect lower labour costs combined with proximity to Western European markets, making them competitive in the mid-range segment. The least specialised members — Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal and Hungary — have negligible production or export activity in this product class.

Conclusion

The EU trade in wicker and related furniture (CN 940389) over 2015–2025 tells a story of qualitative transformation. The EU remains a strong net exporter, but the character of its exports has changed fundamentally: fewer tonnes shipped, but at nearly triple the unit price. This "premium pivot" is driven primarily by Italy and, to a lesser extent, France and Spain — countries with strong design traditions.

On the import side, the EU diversified its sourcing. China remains the dominant supplier, but India, Viet Nam and Türkiye grew much faster, reducing concentration risk. The EU's trade surplus widened in value, and its net exporter position is not at risk.

However, questions remain. The 64.3% decline in domestic production volumes — even as production value surged — is a striking paradox that deserves further investigation. It may reflect genuine repositioning toward premium production, but it could also indicate reporting inconsistencies or structural hollowing-out masked by price effects.

Looking ahead, the main watchpoints are:

• Demand sustainability: Will the high-price export model hold if global demand weakens or if Asian producers move upmarket?
• Sourcing diversification: Can the EU maintain its shift away from Chinese dependency, and will India's volatile growth stabilise?
• Production resilience: Is the decline in production volumes a permanent structural shift, or does it leave the EU exposed if reshoring becomes necessary?

The data suggests a market in transition — moving from volume to value, from concentrated to diversified sourcing, and from broad-based to geographically specialised production.