Market evolution: Other base metals and cermets (CN 81) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Customs heading 81 groups a heterogeneous set of specialty metals — titanium, magnesium, cobalt, tungsten, manganese, antimony, and cermets among others — that serve as critical inputs for aerospace, defence, batteries, electronics, and the energy transition. Over the decade to 2025, the EU's external trade in this product category underwent profound structural change. Traded volumes barely moved, yet trade values surged on the back of repeated commodity price shocks, widening the EU's trade deficit by 79%. This report examines the principal dynamics behind these trends across three dimensions: the value-volume disconnect, recurrent price shocks, and the reconfiguration of trade partners and EU specialisation.

Overview of CN 81 trade

1. A Widening Deficit Entirely Driven by Price Inflation

1.1 The trade deficit expanded by 79% despite flat volumes

The EU's trade deficit in CN 81 widened from €1.48 billion in 2015 to €2.64 billion in 2025, a deterioration of 79.2%. Import values rose 60.0% (from €3.26 billion to €5.22 billion) while export values grew 44.1% (from €1.79 billion to €2.57 billion). Crucially, both import and export quantities declined over the period — imports by 4.0% (from 427,530 t to 410,278 t) and exports by 6.2% (from 94,942 t to 89,014 t). The entire increase in trade values was therefore driven by higher unit prices rather than growing physical flows.

1.2 Import prices rose faster than export prices, worsening the EU's terms of trade

Import unit prices climbed 66.7% over the decade, outpacing the 53.6% rise in export unit prices. This divergence means the EU paid proportionally more for its inputs than it earned from its outputs, eroding the bloc's terms of trade in this product category. The gap is especially significant given that CN 81 contains many metals classified as critical raw materials under EU policy, where price inelasticity of demand is high.

1.3 Net import reliance and trade intensity both climbed sharply

The EU's net import reliance rose from 22.9% in 2015 to 31.3% in 2025, peaking at 49.8% during the 2022 commodity spike. Simultaneously, trade intensity nearly doubled (from 29.6% to 55.0%), and export propensity surged from 5.1% to 23.7% — a 369% increase. These three indicators together paint a picture of an EU production base that has become far more integrated into global markets: more reliant on imported raw materials, more engaged in cross-border trade overall, and more oriented toward exporting processed or higher-value products.

1.4 Titanium dominates the deficit; antimony has become the fastest-growing contributor

Breaking the deficit down by sub-heading reveals that titanium (CN 8108) is by far the largest source, accounting for over €1.3 billion of the 2025 deficit based on import values of €2.10 billion versus export values of €787 million. Antimony (CN 8110) has emerged as a rapidly growing contributor, with its import bill quadrupling from €127 million to €811 million (see Section 2). Meanwhile, cermets (CN 8113) represent a structural surplus item for the EU, with export values of €246 million at very high unit prices (€82,000/t), reflecting the bloc's strength in advanced materials processing.

2. Recurrent Price Shocks: From the 2022 Energy Crisis to the 2025 Antimony Surge

2.1 The 2022 energy crisis triggered a broad-based price spike

The year 2022 was the most volatile of the decade. Three price shock events were detected: imports from the United States showed an abnormality score of 69.7 (with prices rising 28.4% and accounting for 33.6% of import value), imports from Russia recorded a 41.9% price shift, and exports to Brazil saw a 39.3% price increase. The 2022 shock was driven by the energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted European smelting capacity and tightened global supply chains for energy-intensive metals. Magnesium and manganese were particularly affected, as China — responsible for the vast majority of global production — faced its own energy-related output constraints.

2.2 Most commodity prices normalised after 2022, but some kept climbing

Prices for magnesium, manganese, and cobalt largely retraced their 2022 gains by 2025, suggesting the disruptions were temporary and supply adjusted accordingly. Magnesium import prices, for instance, surged from €2,812/t in 2021 to €5,522/t in 2022, before falling back to €2,497/t in 2025 — roughly back to the 2015 level. Similarly, manganese import prices spiked to €4,092/t in 2022 but returned to €1,812/t. Cobalt exhibited a more complex cycle, with the 2022 spike (€44,323/t) partly reflecting the electric vehicle battery demand boom alongside supply disruptions, before settling at €30,959/t.

Import prices in EUR per tonne.

2.3 Antimony prices entered an entirely new structural regime in 2025

Antimony (CN 8110) stands apart from all other sub-headings. After a decade of relatively stable prices (€5,000–€8,000/t), the 2022 crisis pushed prices to €12,387/t, and they then accelerated dramatically to €16,703/t in 2024 and €44,576/t in 2025 — a tripling in a single year. This occurred with virtually no change in imported volumes (18,905 t in 2015 vs. 18,204 t in 2025), meaning the EU's antimony import bill quadrupled from €127 million to €811 million purely on price. The most likely driver is China's imposition of export controls on antimony in late 2024; China accounts for roughly 60% of global mine production and an even larger share of refined output. The controls triggered a scramble for alternative supply and a structural repricing of the metal.

2.4 Tungsten and titanium showed steady price appreciation without dramatic shocks

Unlike the boom-bust pattern seen in magnesium and cobalt, tungsten (CN 8101) and titanium (CN 8108) import prices followed a more gradual upward trajectory, rising 28.6% and 28.9% respectively over the decade. This steady appreciation likely reflects sustained demand from aerospace and defence sectors, combined with structurally constrained supply. Notably, the volatility (coefficient of variation) for titanium imports from the United States was 0.18 — relatively low for this product group — suggesting a more stable supply relationship.

3. Shifting Partners, New Trade Corridors, and EU Export Specialisation

3.1 China remains the top supplier but its market share has diversified away

China was the EU's leading import partner throughout the decade, with imports rising 43.9% from €824 million in 2015 to €1.19 billion in 2025. However, this figure peaked at €2.21 billion in 2022 — during the magnesium and manganese price spike — before falling back as prices normalised. Import concentration by value (HHI) declined from 1,739 to 1,464 (−15.8%), confirming that the EU's supplier base has meaningfully diversified over the period. Notably, volume-based HHI remained much higher (4,837), indicating that bulk commodities like magnesium and manganese remain heavily concentrated in a handful of origins.

3.2 Tajikistan emerged as a critical new supplier, driven by the antimony supply crisis

The most dramatic shift on the import side was the emergence of Tajikistan, which went from €5.8 million in 2015 to €467 million in 2025 — a near-8,000% increase. Tajikistan is one of the world's largest antimony producers outside China, and its rapid rise as an EU supplier directly mirrors the antimony price crisis described in Section 2. The United States also consolidated its position, with EU imports growing 57.2% to €1.29 billion — nearly matching China — while Japanese imports grew 81.4% to €209 million. Conversely, Russian imports fell 17.4% to €210 million, their lowest level in the dataset, consistent with sanctions-related trade restrictions following 2022.

3.3 Unspecified and confidential trade flows are declining

A notable feature of the dataset is the category "Countries and territories not specified for commercial or military reasons," which ranked among the top partners in both imports and exports. This category likely captures strategically sensitive metals (such as beryllium or hafnium under CN 8112) traded under classified defence procurement. Import values fell from €182 million in 2015 to €145 million in 2025 (peaking at €760 million), while exports declined from €145 million to €47 million. This downward trend may reflect improved classification practices, shifts in defence procurement patterns, or changes in reporting thresholds.

3.4 EU exports became more concentrated and more specialised

On the export side, the value HHI rose from 1,505 to 1,701 (+13.0%) and the volume HHI from 1,638 to 2,450 (+49.6%), indicating growing concentration. The United States consolidated its role as the dominant export destination, growing 80.2% to €915 million — over a third of extra-EU exports. India emerged as a fast-growing market (from €40 million to €104 million, +160.3%), reflecting demand from its expanding industrial and technology base.

3.5 Germany and France anchor the EU's CN 81 trade; Austria and Luxembourg show the highest specialisation

Within the EU, Germany and France were the largest hubs on both the import and export side. France was the fastest-growing major importer (€629 million → €1.40 billion, +122.6%) and the second-largest exporter (€390 million → €714 million, +83.1%). Belgium's trade surged on both sides — imports up 136.2% and exports up 230.9% — suggesting its emergence as a metals processing and trading hub. In terms of specialisation, Austria (RSCA 0.60, RCA 3.97) and Luxembourg (RSCA 0.52, RCA 3.17) showed the strongest comparative advantages in CN 81, while the cermet sub-heading (CN 8113) — exported at €82,000/t in 2025 — confirmed the EU's competitive strength in high-value advanced materials.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in other base metals and cermets over 2015–2025 was shaped by three overarching dynamics. First, the trade deficit widened by 79% — driven entirely by price inflation rather than volume growth — raising the EU's net import reliance above 30% and its terms of trade deteriorated. Second, recurrent commodity price shocks tested the resilience of European supply chains: the 2022 energy crisis triggered broad-based spikes in magnesium, manganese, and cobalt (most of which subsequently normalised), while the 2025 antimony crisis — catalysed by Chinese export controls — produced a structural repricing that tripled the metal's import cost in a single year. Third, the EU's trade partnerships were reconfigured: China's dominance eased as the bloc diversified toward the United States, Tajikistan, and Japan, while the EU's own export base became more specialised and more concentrated in high-value segments such as cermets and processed titanium. Nevertheless, with antimony prices at record highs and volume-based import concentration remaining elevated, the strategic vulnerability of the EU in this product category remains a policy concern.