Market evolution: Bismuth and articles (CN 8106) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in bismuth and articles thereof (Combined Nomenclature code 8106) over the period from January 2015 to December 2025. The product category encompasses both high-purity bismuth (>99.99% by weight, subcode 810610) and other bismuth products and scrap (subcode 810690). The EU is a major global consumer of bismuth, which is used in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, alloys, and as a lead substitute, but it is heavily reliant on imports to meet its demand. The analysis covers trade values, volumes, and prices, identifying key partners and uncovering significant structural shifts that have occurred within this critical market over the past decade.

1. A Deficit-Driven Market Undergoing Price Inflation

The EU's bismuth market over the 2015-2025 period is characterized by a persistent and substantial trade deficit, driven by strong demand met through imports. While the deficit has fluctuated, the fundamental dynamic of high import dependency remains clear. A pronounced shift from volume- to value-driven growth highlights the impact of global supply constraints and inflationary pressures.

The persistent trade deficit and its recent narrowing

Throughout the period, the EU consistently imported far more bismuth by value than it exported, maintaining a significant trade deficit. The deficit peaked in 2022 at approximately -€29.3 million and stood at -€19.7 million in 2025. While still substantial, the deficit in 2025 was 10.0% smaller than in 2015, indicating a slight relative improvement in the trade balance, primarily due to a robust increase in export values.

Divergent trends in import volume and value: A sign of price shock

A critical observation is the severe divergence between the volume and value of EU bismuth imports. From 2015 to 2025, import quantity fell by 29.1% (from 1,630 to 1,156 tonnes), yet the value of those imports grew by 9.3% (from €27.2M to €29.7M). This points directly to a substantial increase in import prices. The average import price surged by 54.0% over the decade, rising from €16,654 per tonne to €25,645 per tonne, with a sharp peak in the final years of the series.

Export resilience: Growing value despite volatile volumes

In contrast to imports, EU exports showed strong growth in value. Export value nearly doubled, increasing by 89.9% to reach €9.9 million in 2025. This growth occurred even as export volumes were more volatile, peaking at over 1,093 tonnes in 2019 before falling back to 452 tonnes in 2025. The average export price, while generally lower than the import price, also experienced significant inflation, ending the period at €21,986 per tonne.

2. Structural Shifts in Sourcing and Destination Patterns

The landscape of the EU's key bismuth trading partners has undergone considerable reshuffling between 2015 and 2025. The historically dominant import supplier, China, has seen its market share erode, while new, more volatile suppliers have emerged. On the export side, the EU has successfully diversified its client base towards the United States and the United Kingdom.

China's enduring but diminished role as the primary import source

China has consistently been the EU's largest single source of bismuth imports. In 2015, it supplied 67.5% of total EU import value. By 2025, China's share had decreased to 53.3%, though its absolute value remained significant at €15.8 million. The most dramatic change has been the near-total collapse of imports from Thailand, which fell from €6.0 million (22.1% share) in 2015 to just €69,256 in 2025, a decline of 98.8%.

The rise of South Korea and Japan as strategic import partners

To compensate for reduced volumes from some traditional partners, EU importers increasingly turned to South Korea and Japan. Imports from South Korea grew by a staggering 1,186.3%, from €0.5 million to €6.2 million, making it the second-largest supplier by 2025. Similarly, Japanese imports surged by 5,973.5% to reach €1.4 million. This shift suggests a deliberate diversification towards suppliers in geopolitically aligned economies, albeit at a higher cost.

Export diversification: Strengthened ties with the US and UK

EU exporters found growing markets in North America and post-Brexit Britain. The United States became the top destination, with exports increasing by 580.1% to €3.4 million in 2025. Exports to the United Kingdom also grew robustly by 128.8% to €2.5 million. This contrasts sharply with the decline in exports to traditional Asian markets like Thailand (-86.9%) and Laos (-42.7%).

Internal market concentration and specialization

Within the EU, the trade is highly concentrated. Germany and the Netherlands are the dominant importers and exporters, reflecting their roles as major chemical and industrial hubs. Belgium and the Netherlands exhibit the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indices for 2025 (0.57 and 0.52 respectively), indicating a strong specialization in bismuth trade relative to their overall trade profile, possibly linked to refining, processing, or re-export activities.

3. Price Volatility, Product Segments, and Market Shocks

The latter part of the analysis period was marked by exceptional price volatility and distinct performance across the two main product segments. Specific, localized supply shocks in key partner countries further compounded the market's instability, underscoring its vulnerability.

Explosive price growth in the final years, especially for low-purity bismuth

Price increases accelerated dramatically towards the end of the period. The most striking example is seen in the segment for lower-purity bismuth and articles (subcode 810690). Between 2022 and 2025, the average import price for 810690 products skyrocketed from €19,757 to €54,812 per tonne, an increase of 177.5%. This segment now commands a significant price premium over the high-purity 810610 segment (€22,572/t in 2025), a reversal from earlier years. This could indicate a demand surge for bismuth in specific technical applications or severe supply bottlenecks for this grade.

Detected supply shocks highlight partner vulnerability

The volatility analysis reveals significant, localized disruptions. The most severe supply shock detected was a 100% drop in EU exports to Myanmar centered on 2020. Additionally, a major price shock was identified in exports to Thailand in 2020, where prices surged by 201.9%. These events, coupled with the high volatility (coefficient of variation > 1.5) observed in trade with Vietnam, Australia, Mexico, and Hong Kong, paint a picture of a market susceptible to sudden disruptions in smaller or less stable trade relationships.

EU production growth and evolving import concentration

While the data indicates a massive reported increase in EU domestic production value (from €8.8 million in 2015 to €3.0 billion in 2025), the persistent high import values suggest this may reflect reporting artifacts or include significant re-export/refining activity. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration decreased by 32.0% from 5,162 to 3,512, moving the market from a "moderately concentrated" to a "unconcentrated" state. This confirms the successful diversification of the EU's import base away from a near-duopoly with China and Thailand.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU's bismuth market transformed from one of stable, volume-driven importation to a value-driven market plagued by price inflation and supply-side restructuring. The EU successfully reduced its over-reliance on China and Thailand by cultivating new trade relationships with South Korea, Japan, the UK, and the US, thereby lowering overall import concentration. However, this diversification has come at a cost: higher and more volatile prices, particularly for lower-purity bismuth. The market remains fundamentally deficit-prone, and its recent history of localized supply shocks demonstrates its ongoing susceptibility to geopolitical and logistical disruptions in a globally interconnected supply chain. The strategic imperative for the EU lies in balancing supply security with cost management in this critical minor metal market.