Market evolution: Tungsten and articles (CN 8101) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in tungsten and articles thereof (Customs Code 8101) over the period 2015-2025. The product scope encompasses a range of goods from raw materials like tungsten powders and unwrought tungsten to finished products such as wire and articles, as well as waste and scrap. The analysis is based on official trade data, focusing on value, volume, and price trends, key trading partners, and structural shifts within the EU's trade position. Over the decade, the EU's tungsten trade underwent significant expansion in monetary terms, driven by complex price increases and evolving trade relationships, all while the bloc's structural dependency on external sources for this critical raw material showed a notable decline.

I. Resilient Value Growth Amidst Price-Driven Expansion

The EU's total trade in CN 8101 products experienced substantial growth in value over the examined period, though this expansion was primarily fuelled by soaring unit prices rather than a proportional increase in traded physical volume.

Strong appreciation in total trade value: The EU's total import value for tungsten articles grew from €110.6 million in 2015 to €230.4 million in 2025, a 108.3% increase. Over the same period, export value saw an even more pronounced rise of 136.7%, climbing from €78.7 million to €186.3 million. (General Overview).
Volume increases lag behind value gains: The physical quantity of imports rose by 62.0% (from 3,824 to 6,195 tonnes), while export volumes grew by 98.8% (from 2,742 to 5,453 tonnes). This disparity underscores the significant role of price inflation in the observed trade value expansion.
Pronounced price inflation, especially for exports: The average import price increased by 28.6% to €37,165 per tonne. More dramatically, the average export price surged by 18.9% to €34,104 per tonne. This price escalation is particularly stark for specific sub-products; for instance, the export price of tungsten wire (810196) exploded from €138,198/t in 2015 to €955,373/t in 2025. (Product Segment Breakdown).
Persistent trade deficit with a narrowing trend: The EU has consistently maintained a trade deficit in this product category. However, the deficit's magnitude fluctuated, reaching its widest point in 2022 (-€65.0 million) before narrowing to -€44.1 million in 2025, a 38.3% reduction from the starting value in 2015. This indicates the EU's growing export performance relative to its imports. (General Overview).

II. Geopolitical Realignments and Diversifying Trade Partnerships

The EU's sourcing and destination markets for tungsten products underwent significant restructuring, reflecting broader geopolitical and economic shifts. Import sources became slightly more diversified, while export destinations became more concentrated.

Import partners: Rise of new suppliers and the collapse of Russian trade: China remained the largest single import source, with its share of imports growing from €34.0 million to €44.7 million. However, the most striking changes were the near-complete cessation of imports from the Russian Federation (from €5.1 million to €1,036, a -100% change) and the rapid growth of imports from India (+277.6% to €33.5 million) and Türkiye (+523.5% to €11.1 million). This shift is likely linked to the sanctions regime following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. (General Overview).
Export partners: Consolidation in established markets and explosive growth in Asia: The United States solidified its position as the EU's premier export market, with its share growing from €24.9 million to €94.2 million (+278.4%). Exports to Japan (+431.5%) and Taiwan (+2740.5%) also expanded dramatically. Conversely, exports to Hong Kong collapsed by 96.9%, indicating a potential rerouting of trade flows. This concentration is reflected in a rising Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports, from 1562 to 2868, signalling increasing market concentration. (General Overview, Market Structure).
Price volatility and detected shocks in key flows: Trade with some partners exhibited high volatility (coefficient of variation), notably imports from South Africa (1.15) and exports to the Philippines (2.00). The system detected significant price shocks, including a major spike in export prices to Taiwan in 2021 (abnormality score: 14.9) and to the United States in 2022 (abnormality score: 5.1). These shocks may reflect supply chain disruptions or strategic stockpiling. (Volatility & Shocks).

III. Evolving Product Mix and Strengthening Domestic Production

The composition of traded goods and the EU's own production capacity evolved, with waste and scrap playing a dominant role and domestic output showing remarkable growth, enhancing the bloc's strategic autonomy.

Tungsten waste and scrap dominate trade flows: The sub-category "Tungsten waste and scrap" (810197) was the largest single traded item by volume in both imports and exports. Its import volume grew from 2,447 to 5,291 tonnes, and its export volume from 1,456 to 4,911 tonnes. This highlights the importance of recycling and secondary raw materials in the tungsten value chain. (Product Segment Breakdown).
Divergent trends in processed products: Imports of high-value "Articles of tungsten, n.e.s." (810199) saw relatively stable volumes but significant price increases. In contrast, imports and exports of tungsten wire (810196) declined in volume but surged in unit value, suggesting a shift towards higher-value, specialised niches.
EU's enhanced production and reduced import reliance: The EU's domestic production of tungsten products expanded massively, with production value rising from €470.7 million in 2015 to €3.71 billion in 2025. Concurrently, the EU's net import reliance (as a percentage of apparent consumption) fell from 2.34% to 1.17%, a 49.8% reduction. This indicates a successful strengthening of the EU's internal production base for this critical material. (Market Structure, Autonomy & Vulnerability).
Specialised production within the EU: In 2025, Luxembourg exhibited the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA: 0.94) for tungsten production, albeit from a very small base. Germany, holding the largest production share (54.2%), had a strong and positive RSCA (0.44), confirming its role as the bloc's primary tungsten manufacturing hub. (Market Structure).

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's tungsten trade profile transformed significantly. The market is characterized by robust value growth driven by steep price inflation, a strategic reshuffling of trade partners away from Russia and towards the US and Asia, and a strengthening of the EU's domestic production capacity which has markedly reduced its import dependency. Waste and scrap remain central to the trade ecosystem. While the EU has become less vulnerable in terms of net import reliance, the extreme price volatility and concentration of export markets in a few key partners present new dimensions of market risk. The trends observed reflect both reactive adjustments to geopolitical disruptions and proactive steps towards bolstering the resilience of critical raw material supply chains.