Market evolution: Manganese and manganese waste (CN 8111) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in manganese and related articles (Customs code 8111) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a decade of significant structural shifts, characterized by a marked increase in the bloc's dependence on imports, a reorientation of trade flows, and notable volatility. The EU's trade balance for this product has deteriorated considerably, driven by a simultaneous expansion in import volumes and a contraction in export activities. These dynamics underscore the strategic vulnerabilities and changing competitive landscape within the EU's manganese market.

1. The Widening Gap: A Decade of Growing Import Dependency and Shrinking Exports

The period under review was defined by a fundamental divergence in the trajectories of the EU's manganese imports and exports. While the bloc increased its purchases from the rest of the world, its ability to sell manganese products abroad diminished, leading to a substantial widening of the trade deficit. This section examines the scale of this shift and its primary drivers.

1.1. Imports Expanded While Exports Contracted

The EU's import value for manganese grew by 21.3% from €164.9 million in 2015 to €200.0 million in 2025. This growth in value outpaced the 18.6% increase in imported quantity (from 93,058 tonnes to 110,375 tonnes), indicating a modest rise in average unit prices over the decade. In stark contrast, the EU's exports suffered a steep decline. Export value fell by 36.0% to €16.5 million, while exported volume plummeted by 42.9% to just 5,789 tonnes. Consequently, the EU's trade deficit in manganese worsened by 31.9%, reaching -€183.5 million in 2025.

1.2. A Reconfiguration of the EU's Import Partners

The geographic sources of the EU's manganese imports underwent significant changes. China consolidated its dominant position, with imports from there growing by 23.0% to €181.0 million, representing the vast majority of EU import value. More dramatically, imports from Indonesia surged from a negligible €6,387 in 2015 to €7.8 million in 2025, while imports from Ukraine skyrocketed from €328,502 to €7.7 million. Conversely, traditional suppliers saw their shares erode: imports from Gabon collapsed by 99.7%, and those from South Africa declined by 36.1%.

1.3. Declining Export Competitiveness in Key Markets

The EU's export performance weakened across most of its traditional major destination markets. The most severe drops were registered in exports to the United Kingdom (-55.9%) and Spain (from a 2015 value that was the highest, implying a large decrease). Exports to Canada also fell by 36.8%. While some smaller markets saw increases, they were insufficient to offset the broader decline. This suggests a loss of competitive edge or a strategic shift away from exporting manganese goods from the EU.

2. Structural Shifts: Production, Specialization, and Market Concentration

Beyond the headline trade figures, the underlying structure of the EU's manganese market evolved considerably. Domestic production trends, the competitive positioning of individual EU members, and the degree of market concentration all reveal deeper transformations that have shaped the trade outcomes observed.

2.1. Domestic Production: A Story of Volume Growth and Value Erosion

EU production data presents a paradox. The quantity of manganese produced domestically surged by 252.2%, from 2.5 million kg in 2015 to 8.9 million kg in 2025. However, the value of this production simultaneously collapsed by 62.6%, falling from €110.0 million to €41.1 million. This implies that EU production shifted heavily towards higher-volume, significantly lower-value-added products, likely commoditized forms of manganese, while higher-value processed articles or specialized alloys may have lost ground.

2.2. Specialization Varies Widely Across the Bloc

Analysis of revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) shows that specialization in manganese production is highly uneven within the EU. The Netherlands is the most specialized member state (RSCA: 0.70), followed distantly by Austria (0.16). Most other EU countries have negative RSCA values, indicating they are not competitive in this product. This concentration suggests that the overall EU trade figures are heavily influenced by the performance of just a few member states.

2.3. Persistent and High Concentration of Import Sources

The concentration of EU manganese imports, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), remained consistently high throughout the period. The HHI for import value started at 8,042 in 2015 and ended at 8,237 in 2025, fluctuating within a band that consistently indicates a highly concentrated market (values above 2,500 are considered highly concentrated). This structural feature, largely driven by the dominance of China, represents a key vulnerability for the EU's supply security.

3. Rising Vulnerability and Price Volatility

The combined effects of growing import dependency, concentration, and shifting trade patterns have amplified the EU's vulnerability to external shocks. Metrics of trade intensity and net reliance, alongside detected price shocks, paint a picture of a market increasingly exposed to international supply and price dynamics.

3.1. Escalating Net Import Reliance and Trade Intensity

The EU's net import reliance on manganese from outside the bloc increased substantially, from 64.7% in 2015 to 83.1% in 2025. Concurrently, the trade intensity of the product rose from 78.4% to 90.5%. These indicators confirm that the EU's manganese market has become more open and more dependent on international trade over the decade, increasing its exposure to global market fluctuations and potential supply disruptions.

3.2. Evidence of Significant Price Shocks in Export Flows

The volatility analysis identifies several notable price shock events in EU manganese exports. The most severe was a price shock in exports to the United States centered on 2022, with an abnormality score of 266.4 and a 79.3% shift in unit price. This event coincided with the post-COVID global supply chain crisis and the onset of the energy crisis, which likely impacted production costs and logistics for EU exporters. Similar, though less extreme, price shocks were detected for exports to Türkiye and Canada around 2021.

3.3. The Central Role of the Netherlands in EU Trade Flows

Internal EU trade data highlights the pivotal role of the Netherlands. It is by far the largest importing member state, with imports of €161.8 million in 2025, constituting over 80% of the EU total. It is also the most specialized producer. This extreme concentration within the EU itself means that the bloc's overall trade statistics and vulnerability assessments are heavily influenced by the trade patterns and storage/refining activities centered in Dutch ports.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's market for manganese and related articles underwent a profound transformation. The bloc has evolved into a net importer with a deepening reliance on external suppliers, particularly China, which solidified its dominance. This growing dependency was fueled by rising import volumes and a simultaneous, steep decline in export competitiveness. Structurally, EU domestic production pivoted towards lower-value bulk output, while internal specialization became more concentrated in a few member states, notably the Netherlands.

The key dynamics are a widening trade deficit, heightened supply concentration risk, and increased exposure to global price volatility, as evidenced by significant export price shocks. These trends point to a loss of strategic autonomy and heightened vulnerability in the manganese value chain. The EU's ability to secure stable supplies and maintain competitive downstream industries for this critical raw material appears significantly more constrained at the end of this period than at its beginning.