Market evolution: Cobalt and cobalt products (CN 8105) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of the European Union in cobalt and cobalt-related products (Customs Code 8105) over the period 2015 to 2025. The analysis reveals a market characterized by significant structural shifts, marked by a sharp increase in the value of EU exports, a fundamental reconfiguration of trade partners, and a growing emphasis on higher-value finished articles. Despite these positive developments in export competitiveness, the EU's structural dependency on external sources for primary cobalt materials has remained largely unchanged. These trends are set against a backdrop of considerable price volatility and supply chain diversification.

I. Strong Export-Led Growth and a Narrowing Trade Deficit

The period under review witnessed a substantial expansion of the EU's cobalt trade, driven predominantly by vigorous export growth. This expansion occurred alongside a more modest increase in imports, leading to an improvement in the EU's trade balance.

EU Exports Nearly Doubled in Value, Outpacing Import Growth

The total value of EU exports in CN 8105 increased by 95.3% from 2015 to 2025, rising from €123.9 million to €242.0 million. This growth significantly outpaced the 17.6% increase in import values over the same period, which grew from €318.8 million to €375.0 million General Overview. The growth in exports was underpinned by a significant rise in traded quantities, which increased by 83.3% for exports versus 8.3% for imports. Notably, the average unit price for exports remained relatively stable, increasing by only 6.5%, indicating that the value surge was primarily volume-driven General Overview.

The Trade Deficit Narrowed, but EU Import Dependency Persisted

Consequently, the EU's trade deficit in cobalt products narrowed considerably. The negative balance improved from -€194.9 million in 2015 to -€132.9 million in 2025, a 31.8% reduction General Overview. However, this headline improvement masks a stable underlying vulnerability. The EU's Net Import Reliance remained consistently high, moving from 37.4% in 2015 to 38.6% in 2025. This indicates that the bloc's requirement for externally sourced cobalt, a critical raw material, did not diminish despite the rise in exports.

II. A Reconfiguration of Trade Flows: Diversification in Exports, Consolidation in Imports

The geographic landscape of the EU's cobalt trade underwent a radical transformation between 2015 and 2025. Export markets diversified significantly, while import sourcing became more concentrated among a few key suppliers.

Export Destinations Shifted Dramatically Towards Asia and North America

The list of top export partners reveals a pronounced pivot. While the United Kingdom remained the largest single destination, its share in value terms fell by 44.4%. Conversely, exports to the United States surged by 231.1% to become the second-largest market. The most dynamic growth, however, occurred with Asian partners: exports to Japan grew by 434.9%, to India by 444.2%, and to China by 269.0% General Overview. This diversification is further reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration, which fell from 2273 to 1287, indicating a much less concentrated export base General Overview.

Import Sources Consolidated Around New Key Suppliers

In contrast to export diversification, EU imports became more concentrated. Traditional sources saw dramatic declines: imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) plummeted by 96.7%, from Norway by 91.9%, and from Madagascar by 71.1% General Overview. This vacuum was filled by a sharp rise in imports from the United States (+91.1%), Canada (+288.9%), and, most notably, China (+349.4%). As a result, the import-side HHI increased from 1234 to 2095 General Overview.

The Volatility of Supply is Evident in Partner-Specific Price Shocks

This reconfiguration occurred within a market prone to significant price shocks. The Volatility analysis highlights several extreme price movements, such as a 78.5% price shift from China in 2017 (abnormality score: 227.8) and a 69.2% shift from the UK in 2022 Volatility & Shocks. These shocks underscore the risks inherent in the evolving supply chain.

III. A Structural Shift Towards Higher-Value Articles and Domestic Production Growth

Beneath the aggregate trade figures, a significant compositional shift occurred within the product segments. The EU increasingly traded in higher-value finished articles, while domestic production volumes surged.

Imports Dominated by Primary Materials, but Articles Grew in Importance

The product segment breakdown shows that imports were overwhelmingly dominated by CN 810520 (Cobalt mattes, unwrought cobalt, and powders), which accounted for the vast majority of both quantity and value throughout the period Product Segment Breakdown. However, the value share of CN 810590 (Articles of cobalt, n.e.s.) in imports grew steadily, reaching €163.0 million in 2024 (the latest full year), indicating an increasing need for finished cobalt goods.

EU Exports Shifted Decisively Towards Finished Articles

The trend was even more pronounced on the export side. While exports of primary cobalt (CN 810520) remained significant, the most dynamic growth was in CN 810590 (Articles of cobalt). The value of exported articles grew from €48.5 million in 2015 to €96.2 million in 2025, more than doubling Product Segment Breakdown. By 2025, finished articles constituted the largest single segment of EU exports by value, demonstrating a move up the value chain.

Domestic Production Volumes Increased Substantially, Albeit with Volatile Value

Parallel to trade developments, EU domestic production of cobalt products saw a dramatic increase in volume, rising by 287.3% from 8.9 million kg in 2015 to 34.5 million kg in 2025 Market Structure. However, the value of this production did not keep pace and actually declined by 26.9%, falling from €394.7 million to €288.6 million. This disconnect suggests that expanded production was focused on lower-margin primary materials rather than higher-value finished goods.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's cobalt market evolved considerably. The bloc successfully enhanced its export competitiveness, nearly doubling export values through aggressive penetration of Asian and North American markets, particularly for finished articles. This led to a significant narrowing of the trade deficit. However, this progress is coupled with persistent vulnerabilities. The EU's net import reliance for primary cobalt materials remains stubbornly high, and its import sources have consolidated around a new set of partners, including China, creating different strategic dependencies. The period was also characterized by sharp price volatility. Moving forward, the sustainability of the positive trade trends may depend on the EU's ability to further develop its domestic value-added processing and secure resilient supply chains for the critical raw material at the core of this industry.