Market evolution: Cermets and articles thereof (CN 8113) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in cermets and articles thereof (Combined Nomenclature code 8113) over the 2015–2025 period. Cermets — composite materials combining ceramic and metallic constituents — are critical inputs for cutting tools, aerospace components, electronics, and defence applications. The analysis draws on EU-level trade flows, partner concentration, production volumes, and vulnerability indicators. Over the decade, the EU's cermet market has been shaped by three overarching dynamics: a pronounced divergence between export values and volumes, a geographical reorientation of trade partnerships, and a structural erosion of the EU's historical trade surplus driven by surging domestic and import demand.

1. A Value-Volume Divergence: Exporting Less Material at Much Higher Prices

EU export volumes have contracted sharply while export values have grown

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's exports of cermets underwent a striking transformation: the value of extra-EU exports rose from €191.7 million to €245.7 million (+28.1%), while the volume shipped fell from 4,380 tonnes to just 2,995 tonnes (−31.6%). This divergence is explained by a near-doubling of unit export prices, which climbed from €43,775/t to €81,996/t (+87.3%). The EU is therefore selling fewer but increasingly higher-value cermet products abroad, consistent with a shift toward specialised, high-specification items.

Imports have expanded on both value and volume axes

By contrast, EU imports grew across all dimensions. Import values rose from €137.9 million to €229.5 million (+66.4%), volumes from 3,552 tonnes to 5,181 tonnes (+45.9%), and unit prices from €38,809/t to €44,281/t (+14.1%). Unlike exports, where price increases dominated, import growth was volume-driven, signalling that the EU's downstream industries increasingly rely on foreign-sourced cermet inputs.

The EU's trade surplus has narrowed dramatically

The combined effect of these diverging trends has been a collapse of the EU's trade balance in cermets. The surplus fell from €53.8 million in 2015 to just €16.2 million in 2025 (−69.9%). At its narrowest point, the surplus was barely €4.8 million. The net import reliance indicator — while remaining negative, confirming the EU's status as a net exporter — moved from −2.49% to −1.83%, indicating a clear trend toward import dependence.

2. Geographical Reorientation: Shifting Partnerships and Rising Concentration

The United States has become the EU's dominant export destination

A clear geographical reorientation has occurred on the export side. The United States consolidated its position as the EU's largest extra-EU export market, with shipments rising from €43.3 million to €79.7 million (+84.3%) and now accounting for nearly one-third of all EU cermet exports. Switzerland also grew strongly (+52.6% to €25.9 million), as did India (+101.8% to €18.7 million). Meanwhile, exports to several traditional Asian partners declined: China fell from €32.0 million to €24.6 million (−23.1%), Taiwan from €12.9 million to €7.5 million (−42.0%), and South Korea from €16.4 million to €12.8 million (−21.9%).

China has doubled its share of EU imports

On the import side, China cemented its position as the leading supplier to the EU, with import values doubling from €34.9 million to €70.7 million (+102.6%). The United States remained the second-largest source, growing from €25.9 million to €40.8 million (+57.3%). Canada showed the most dramatic growth among import partners, more than doubling from €5.7 million to €13.7 million (+139.9%). Switzerland, while still significant at €34.2 million, declined by 13.5% from its 2015 level.

Germany dominates intra-EU positioning, while trade concentration patterns diverge

At the Member State level, Germany accounts for the overwhelming majority of EU trade in cermets. Its extra-EU exports grew from €136.3 million to €224.2 million (+64.5%), while imports rose from €92.7 million to €154.4 million (+66.5%). Austria was historically a major exporter but saw a collapse of 87.6% (from €41.1 million to €5.1 million), while its imports surged by 717.7%. Specialisation analysis confirms Austria (RSCA: 0.87, RCA: 13.99) and Germany (RSCA: 0.30, RCA: 1.85) as the only EU members with a revealed comparative advantage in cermets. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import sources by value declined from 1,980 to 1,664 (−16.0%), indicating a diversification of supply. Conversely, the export HHI rose from 1,137 to 1,472 (+29.5%), reflecting growing concentration toward fewer destination markets — principally the United States.

3. Production Surge, Declining Trade Intensity, and Price Volatility

EU production of cermets has expanded dramatically

The available production data shows a very substantial increase in EU domestic output. Production value rose from €200 million to €3,102 million (+1,451%), and reported production quantity grew from 4,400 kg to approximately 2,431,954 kg. This extraordinary expansion likely reflects both a genuine increase in EU cermet manufacturing capacity — driven by demand from the automotive, aerospace, energy, and defence sectors — and possible changes in Prodcom survey coverage or classification methodology over the period. The Prodcom codes mapping to CN 8113 (24.45.30.91 for unwrought cermets, 24.45.30.92 for articles thereof, and 38.32.29.10 for secondary raw materials) may have seen scope adjustments that amplified the apparent growth.

Trade intensity and export propensity have both declined

Despite overall trade growth, trade intensity fell from 15.7% to 10.3% (−34.2%) and export propensity declined from 9.6% to 6.3% (−34.6%). This means that while the absolute value of trade has increased, the domestic EU market has grown even faster, absorbing a larger share of production internally. These indicators, both scoring above 70 on the salience scale, are consistent with a booming European demand environment — likely fuelled by strategic stockpiling, the green energy transition, and defence-related procurement of hardmetal and cermet components.

Price shocks have been concentrated in Asian export markets

The volatility and shock analysis reveals notable instability in certain bilateral trade flows. The most significant detected shock events were:

The 2018 price shocks to China and Taiwan coincided with escalating US–China trade tensions, which may have disrupted global supply chains for hardmetals and redirected trade flows. Taiwan shows the highest coefficient of variation (CV: 1.13) among EU export partners, indicating persistent instability. On the import side, Turkey (CV: 0.86) and Taiwan (CV: 0.82) display the most volatile supply patterns, while Japan (CV: 0.30) and the United States (CV: 0.17) offer more stable import relationships — a relevant consideration for supply-chain resilience.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's cermet market has undergone a profound structural transformation. The EU remains a net exporter, but its trade surplus has eroded by nearly 70% as import growth — led by China and the United States — has outpaced export expansion. Export values have been sustained primarily through higher unit prices rather than volume growth, suggesting a shift toward higher-value, more specialised cermet products. Simultaneously, EU domestic production has expanded substantially, driving down trade intensity and export propensity as the internal market absorbs an increasing share of output. The geographical orientation of trade has tilted further toward the United States for exports and toward China for imports, while concentration on the export side has increased. Price volatility remains a concern, particularly in trade with East Asian partners. Overall, these trends point to an EU cermet sector that is growing in production scale and upgrading in product sophistication, but facing increasing import competition and a narrowing trade surplus — dynamics that warrant continued monitoring given the strategic importance of cermets for European industrial sovereignty.