Market evolution: Nickel (CN 75) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in nickel and articles thereof (customs heading 75) over the period 2015–2025. The product group encompasses unwrought nickel, nickel mattes, powders, bars, rods, plates, tubes, and various fabricated articles. The EU is a major consumer and processor of nickel, with total imports averaging over €4.5 billion annually and a persistent structural trade deficit with the rest of the world. Over the decade covered, the nickel market was shaped by pronounced price cycles, a major price shock in 2022, and a significant reconfiguration of the EU's supply geography. Scope & Definitions

From Raw Metal to Intermediate Inputs: A Structural Shift in EU Import Composition

Unwrought nickel imports have declined sharply in volume

Unwrought nickel (CN 7502) has historically been the single largest import category by both volume and value, consistently accounting for the majority of total nickel imports. However, the quantity has fallen significantly over the decade:

Over the full period, unwrought nickel import volumes fell by 37.4%, from 231,324 tonnes to 144,752 tonnes. The decline was largely structural: the 2025 volume is the lowest in the entire series. Notably, the unit price peaked at €23,685/t in 2022 before settling at €14,979/t in 2025, still 33% above the 2015 level. Overview

Nickel mattes and intermediate products have surged to fill the gap

As unwrought nickel imports declined, imports of nickel mattes, nickel oxide sinters, and other intermediate products of nickel metallurgy (CN 7501) grew substantially:

Import volumes in CN 7501 more than doubled from 2015 to 2018 (from 40,768t to 117,326t), suggesting that EU smelters and refiners increasingly sourced intermediate inputs rather than finished unwrought metal. The value grew even more dramatically because prices also rose: the unit price increased by 16% from 2015 to 2025, peaking at €16,228/t in 2022.

Waste and scrap imports have expanded, pointing to circular economy dynamics

Another notable structural development is the growth in imports of nickel waste and scrap (CN 7503). Volumes rose from 12,504 tonnes in 2015 to 30,203 tonnes in 2025—a 141.6% increase. This category, historically the smallest by volume among the main raw material groups, nearly tripled in size and now exceeds unwrought nickel bar imports in several years. This likely reflects both the growing importance of secondary raw materials in EU nickel supply chains and regulatory drivers associated with the circular economy. Product compare

The 2022 Price Shock and Its Lasting Effects on Trade Values

A sharp and synchronized price spike hit all product segments in 2022

The year 2022 stands out as a dramatic inflection point in the EU nickel trade data. Prices spiked across virtually every product category, driven by the broader commodity price surge associated with the post-COVID recovery and geopolitical tensions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The following table shows unit prices for key import categories:

The price spike was confirmed by shock detection analysis for Norway (imports), which recorded an abnormality score of 11.3 and a 78% price shift centred on 2022, and for South Korea (exports), with an abnormality score of 282.5 and a 78.2% price shift. Both events were identified as major supply-side shocks. Supply shocks

Total import values peaked in 2022 despite stable volumes

Despite the decline in import volumes, the price spike drove total EU nickel imports to an all-time high of €7.62 billion in 2022—nearly double the 2015 level of €3.93 billion. This surge was almost entirely price-driven: the overall quantity of imports in 2022 (at approximately 429,000 tonnes across all subcategories) was actually below the 2015 level (approximately 317,000 tonnes for the same subcategories, though total figures may differ). By 2025, total import values had moderated to €5.05 billion, still 28.5% above 2015 but well below the 2022 peak. Overview

Export values followed a similar trajectory, peaking in 2022

EU nickel exports also peaked in value terms in 2022, reaching €3.80 billion—more than double the 2015 level of €1.78 billion. By 2025, export values had declined to €3.22 billion but remained 81.2% above the starting point. Export volumes grew more steadily, rising from 117,484 tonnes in 2015 to 175,378 tonnes in 2025 (+49.3%), suggesting that the EU's nickel processing and export capacity expanded structurally over the decade. Overview

The trade deficit narrowed, driven by strong export growth

The EU's nickel trade deficit with the rest of the world improved from €2.15 billion in 2015 to €1.83 billion in 2025, a 15.1% reduction. However, the path was highly non-linear: the deficit widened to a peak of €4.01 billion in 2022 when import prices spiked. The subsequent recovery reflects both the normalisation of commodity prices and the sustained growth in EU export capacity. Overview

A Geopolitical Recalibration of Supply Chains

Russia's dominance of EU nickel imports has persisted despite geopolitical tensions

The Russian Federation remained the EU's largest single supplier of nickel throughout the period, with import values ranging from €674 million in 2015 to a peak of €3.16 billion in 2022. By 2025, Russian imports stood at €974 million—a 44.4% increase over 2015 but a 69% decline from the 2022 peak. This pattern likely reflects both the price spike of 2022 and the subsequent partial decoupling of EU–Russia trade flows following sanctions. The volatility of Russian imports (coefficient of variation of 0.298) is moderate, but the wide range (€674M–€3.16B) illustrates the profound impact of geopolitical and macroeconomic events on this bilateral trade. Partners

North American suppliers have gained significant market share

Among the most notable trends is the rapid growth of imports from Canada and the United States:

Canada's growth is particularly striking: imports from Canada grew from €118 million to €418 million, with a peak of €687 million in 2023. The United States nearly doubled its nickel exports to the EU, reaching €1.26 billion by 2025. These shifts suggest a strategic diversification away from traditional European and Russian suppliers toward North American sources, likely driven by supply security considerations. Partners

Australia's role has diminished sharply

In contrast to North American growth, Australian nickel imports collapsed from €208 million in 2015 to just €72 million in 2025—a 65.4% decline. The volatility of Australian trade is among the highest (CV of 0.434), reflecting the instability of this supply relationship. This decline may be linked to the Australian nickel mining sector's well-documented difficulties in competing with Indonesian supply on global markets. Partners

EU import concentration has increased slightly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU nickel imports by value rose from 1,253 in 2015 to 1,447 in 2025 (+15.5%). This increase indicates a modest rise in supplier concentration. The HHI peaked at 2,426 in 2022, coinciding with the period of maximum price volatility and geopolitical disruption. While the 2025 level is below the 2022 peak, it remains above the 2015 baseline, suggesting that the diversification benefits gained from sourcing more from Canada and the US have not fully offset the growing weight of the largest suppliers. Concentration

EU domestic production has expanded dramatically

EU nickel production (in kilograms) increased from 12 million kg in 2015 to 326 million kg in 2025—a 2,618% rise. Production value followed a similar trajectory, growing from €113 million to €2.96 billion. This extraordinary expansion in domestic capacity is a significant structural development, likely driven by EU industrial policy, battery supply chain investments (nickel is a critical raw material for lithium-ion batteries), and the strategic imperative to reduce import dependency. Production volumes

Finland has emerged as a key EU production and export hub

Finland stands out as the most specialised EU member state in nickel production, with an RCA of 8.89 and an RSCA of 0.798 in 2025. Finnish exports grew by 214.0% over the period, from €207 million to €648 million, and Finnish imports grew by 313.1%. The Netherlands, while also specialised (RCA of 2.35), has a more balanced trade profile as both a major import hub and exporter. Specialisation

Conclusion

The EU nickel market over 2015–2025 has undergone a profound transformation driven by three reinforcing dynamics: a structural shift in the composition of raw material imports, the 2022 commodity price shock, and a geopolitical recalibration of supply chains.

The most important structural change is the decline in unwrought nickel imports (−37.4% by volume) and the simultaneous surge in imports of nickel mattes and intermediate products (+137% from 2015 to peak). This suggests that EU smelters are increasingly processing intermediate inputs domestically rather than importing finished unwrought metal. This trend is consistent with the massive expansion of EU nickel production capacity, which grew over 2,500% by both quantity and value over the period—driven in part by the EU's critical raw materials strategy and battery supply chain investments.

The 2022 price shock—linked to post-COVID commodity dynamics and the Russia–Ukraine conflict—temporarily distorted the EU's trade balance and supplier relationships. Import values peaked at €7.62 billion, and the trade deficit widened to €4.01 billion. Prices have since moderated but remain elevated relative to pre-2020 levels, and the shock accelerated diversification of supply sources.

Geopolitically, the data points to a partial reorientation away from Australian and unspecified sources and toward North American suppliers, particularly Canada and the United States. Russia remains the largest single supplier, but its share has become more volatile. The EU's import concentration has increased modestly, while export concentration has declined, reflecting a more diversified set of EU exporters. Overall, the nickel trade data reveals an EU market that is actively restructuring itself—building domestic capacity, diversifying supply, and adapting to a more volatile global environment.