Market evolution: Nickel waste and scrap (CN 7503) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of European Union (EU) trade in nickel waste and scrap, classified under Combined Nomenclature (CN) code 7503, from 2015 to 2025. The analysis focuses on trade with non-EU countries, interpreting key trends in value, volume, pricing, and partnership dynamics. The data reveals a period of significant expansion in trade volumes and values, accompanied by notable shifts in the EU's role as both an exporter and importer, and in its trading relationships. These dynamics reflect broader industry trends related to the green transition, supply chain realignment, and market volatility.

1. Sustained Growth Punctuated by a Resilient Trade Surplus

The period from 2015 to 2025 was characterized by robust growth in the EU's external trade of nickel waste and scrap, solidifying its position as a net exporter with a generally positive, though fluctuating, trade balance.

1.1. Strong Upward Trajectory in Trade Values and Volumes

Both exports and imports saw substantial increases over the decade. EU exports grew by 97.8% in value, rising from €79.5 million in 2015 to €157.2 million in 2025. This was accompanied by a 58.9% increase in quantity exported, reaching 19,057 tonnes. View the general trade overview. The growth was even more pronounced on the import side, with values increasing by 114.5% to €117.8 million and volumes surging by 141.5% to 30,203 tonnes. This indicates rising demand within the EU for nickel scrap as a secondary raw material.

1.2. Evolution of the Trade Balance: From Deficit to Strong Surplus

The EU consistently maintained a positive trade balance (exports minus imports) throughout most of the period, indicating it exported more nickel scrap by value than it imported. The balance peaked at €74.2 million before experiencing a significant dip in 2020, falling to a deficit of -€5.9 million, likely linked to pandemic-related disruptions in export markets. It recovered strongly, settling at a positive €39.4 million in 2025. Check the net import reliance metric. The net import reliance ratio, which was deeply negative (indicating a net exporter role), also saw a 42.7% improvement, moving from -56.3% in 2015 to -32.2% in 2025, reflecting the growing scale of its export operations.

1.3. Internal EU Dynamics: The Shifting Burden of Trade

The role of individual EU member states in driving trade evolved significantly. While Germany remained the top exporter, its growth was modest (11.6%). More dramatic increases came from Italy (387.7%), Spain (1,060%), and notably Poland, whose exports grew from a negligible €26,000 to €12.8 million. On the import side, Germany and France showed major increases (173.4% and 1,207% respectively), while traditional importers like Sweden and the Netherlands saw their shares decline. Explore top EU reporters. This suggests a geographical broadening and intensification of recycling and processing activities within the EU.

2. Geopolitical and Supply Chain Realignment in Trade Partnerships

The EU's network of trade partners for nickel scrap underwent a profound restructuring, marked by the rise of new suppliers, particularly from Central Asia, and a consequent reduction in concentration.

2.1. Diversification of Import Sources Away from Traditional Partners

The United Kingdom and the United States remained the EU's largest export destinations, together accounting for over 75% of export value in 2025. However, the most dramatic shifts occurred on the import side. The value of imports from Kazakhstan exploded by 50,483%, making it the third-largest supplier by 2025, up from a negligible share. Conversely, imports from the Russian Federation fell by 68.0%. This dramatic reorientation likely reflects supply chain diversification efforts and geopolitical sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. View top trade partners.

2.2. Emergence of New Strategic Export Markets

While traditional partners like the US, UK, and Japan absorbed the majority of EU exports, new markets gained significant share. Exports to the Republic of Korea grew by 670.3%, and those to Malaysia grew from a mere €56 to over €1 million. These shifts align with the growing global demand for nickel, driven by its critical role in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, directing EU scrap towards Asian battery supply chains.

2.3. Moderating Concentration in Import Markets

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, for imports by value increased slightly from 1,745 to 1,842, but remained well below the 2,500 threshold indicating a highly concentrated market. Analyze trade concentration. The HHI for exports, while still higher, decreased by 13.9%, indicating a modest diversification of the EU's customer base. This suggests the EU is successfully navigating supply chain diversification on the import side while broadening its export markets.

3. Value Creation, Price Dynamics, and Supply Chain Resilience

Distinct pricing trends between exports and imports, alongside the EU's production profile, highlight its strategic position in adding value to nickel scrap and the system's resilience to external shocks.

3.1. Sustained Export Premium Indicates Value Addition

A persistent price gap existed between EU exports and imports. The EU consistently exported nickel scrap at a higher average price than it imported. In 2025, the export price was €8,250 per tonne, while the import price was €3,899 per tonne. The export price saw a net increase of 24.5% over the period, while the import price declined by 11.2%. This premium suggests that the EU exports higher-grade scrap or processes it into a more valuable form before export, capturing more value in the supply chain. Track price movements.

2.2. Sensitivity to Commodity Price Cycles and 2022 Shock

The period was not without volatility. Prices for imports from Norway and the United States saw abnormal spikes (price shocks) in 2022, coinciding with broader global commodity market turmoil. Similarly, EU export prices to the United States surged by 107.1% in the same year. Examine supply shocks. This demonstrates the market's direct linkage to the volatile global nickel price cycle, influenced by factors like the LME nickel squeeze and energy market disruptions.

3.3. A Declining but Stable Domestic Production Base

EU domestic production of secondary raw nickel materials (Prodcom 38.32.24.00) declined in both volume (-17.4%) and value (-33.6%) over the available period. See production volumes. Despite this, the EU's role as a major net exporter implies that a significant portion of collected scrap is channeled into export rather than being fully consumed domestically. The high export propensity (115.2% of production value in 2025) underscores this outward-oriented model, positioning the EU as a critical supplier of secondary nickel resources to global, particularly Asian, manufacturing hubs.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in nickel waste and scrap (CN 7503) between 2015 and 2025 has been a story of strategic adaptation and robust growth. The bloc has solidified its role as a net exporter and a key player in the global circular economy for critical raw materials. Key dynamics include a successful diversification of import sources, notably the dramatic rise of Kazakhstan and the decline of Russia, enhancing supply chain resilience. The EU consistently captures a price premium on exports, indicating value addition. While domestic production has declined, the strong and growing export market, coupled with the intensification of intra-EU trade flows, highlights the region's integrated recycling network. Looking ahead, the EU's position is intrinsically linked to the green transition, with its nickel scrap streams becoming an increasingly strategic asset for global battery and stainless steel supply chains, albeit one subject to commodity price volatility and geopolitical shifts.