Market evolution: Nickel (CN 7502) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade performance of the European Union in unwrought nickel (customs code 7502) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers both non-alloyed nickel (750210) and unwrought nickel alloys (750220). The EU is a structural net importer of this commodity, and the period under review was marked by profound shifts in trade volumes, pricing dynamics, and supply-chain geography. Three main findings emerge: a persistent contraction in traded quantities, a dramatic price shock centred on 2022, and a significant reorientation of import sources away from Russia and toward Canada and South Africa.
Unwrought nickel — Scope & Definitions
1. A Structural Contraction in Traded Volumes
The most striking feature of the decade is a sustained decline in the physical quantities of unwrought nickel traded between the EU and the rest of the world.
Import volumes fell by more than one third
EU imports of unwrought nickel declined from 231,324 tonnes in 2015 to 144,752 tonnes in 2025, a drop of 37.4%. The peak was reached in 2018 at 236,601 tonnes, after which quantities fell almost continuously, reaching their lowest level of the decade in 2025. The contraction was concentrated in non-alloyed nickel (750210), which fell from 207,382 tonnes to 132,082 tonnes (−36.4%), while alloy imports (750220) declined from 23,942 tonnes to 12,670 tonnes (−47.1%) but stabilised in the most recent years.
| Year | Imports (t) | 750210 (t) | 750220 (t) | Exports (t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 231,324 | 207,382 | 23,942 | 37,096 |
| 2016 | 206,070 | 183,018 | 23,052 | 45,355 |
| 2017 | 219,548 | 201,638 | 17,910 | 37,220 |
| 2018 | 236,601 | 227,255 | 9,346 | 42,693 |
| 2019 | 197,024 | 186,596 | 10,428 | 46,648 |
| 2020 | 164,790 | 151,379 | 13,411 | 35,920 |
| 2021 | 178,046 | 171,235 | 6,811 | 31,062 |
| 2022 | 174,574 | 165,954 | 8,620 | 32,154 |
| 2023 | 150,805 | 138,988 | 11,817 | 28,857 |
| 2024 | 156,632 | 143,980 | 12,652 | 26,669 |
| 2025 | 144,752 | 132,082 | 12,670 | 19,989 |
Source: Product segment breakdown
Export volumes declined even more steeply
EU exports of unwrought nickel fell from 37,096 tonnes in 2015 to 19,989 tonnes in 2025 (−46.1%). The export peak was in 2019 at 46,648 tonnes, after which volumes contracted almost without interruption. Nearly all exports consisted of non-alloyed nickel (750210), which fell from 34,087 tonnes to 17,584 tonnes. EU domestic production grew only modestly over the same period — from 54,066 tonnes to 58,000 tonnes (+7.3%) — and was insufficient to offset the broader volume decline in trade.
The EU's trade deficit narrowed in volume terms but remained large in value
The EU's trade deficit in unwrought nickel ranged from −€1.42 billion in 2016 (the smallest gap of the decade, when prices were at their lowest) to −€3.37 billion in 2022 (the largest, driven by the price spike). In 2025, the deficit stood at −€1.88 billion, a 13.0% improvement compared to 2015. Crucially, the EU's net import reliance remained essentially flat at 73.3–75.7% throughout the period, indicating that the decline in traded volumes reflected changing market conditions rather than any reduction in the EU's structural dependence on imported nickel.
2. The 2022 Price Shock and Its Lasting Aftermath
Alongside the volume decline, the period was dominated by a dramatic price event in 2022, when nickel unit prices roughly doubled compared to pre-2021 levels and then gradually corrected over the following three years.
Unit prices surged to a peak in 2022
Import unit prices rose from a trough of €8,854/t in 2016 to a peak of €23,685/t in 2022, before falling back to €14,979/t in 2025. Export prices followed a nearly identical trajectory, from €8,947/t (2016) to €23,889/t (2022) and back to €14,485/t (2025). The 2022 peak was closely connected to the LME nickel squeeze of March 2022, compounded by surging European energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
| Year | Import value (€B) | Import price (€/t) | Export value (€M) | Export price (€/t) | Balance (€B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2.60 | 11,258 | 445 | 12,002 | −2.16 |
| 2016 | 1.82 | 8,854 | 406 | 8,947 | −1.42 |
| 2017 | 2.10 | 9,566 | 368 | 9,878 | −1.73 |
| 2018 | 2.71 | 11,468 | 495 | 11,590 | −2.22 |
| 2019 | 2.42 | 12,305 | 588 | 12,609 | −1.84 |
| 2020 | 2.00 | 12,150 | 442 | 12,303 | −1.56 |
| 2021 | 2.69 | 15,134 | 472 | 15,197 | −2.22 |
| 2022 | 4.13 | 23,685 | 768 | 23,889 | −3.37 |
| 2023 | 3.37 | 22,344 | 630 | 21,819 | −2.74 |
| 2024 | 2.68 | 17,136 | 439 | 16,448 | −2.25 |
| 2025 | 2.17 | 14,979 | 290 | 14,485 | −1.88 |
Price effects dominated value data in 2022–2023
The paradox of 2022 is that total import value reached its decade-high of €4.13 billion while import quantities (174,574 tonnes) were already well below the 2018 peak of 236,601 tonnes. Similarly, export value reached €768 million — the highest of the decade — on only 32,154 tonnes, a volume below the 2015–2019 average. The alloy sub-product (750220) recorded even higher prices than non-alloyed nickel in 2022, at €29,948/t for imports and €20,263/t for exports. A specific supply shock was detected for Norway in 2022, with a 78.9% price shift affecting 25.2% of total import value.
Prices have corrected but remain elevated relative to the pre-pandemic baseline
By 2025, unit prices had fallen roughly 37% from their 2022 peak but remained approximately 70% above 2016 levels for imports. The correction reflects easing energy costs, growing global nickel supply (particularly from Indonesia), and the normalisation of LME markets. However, prices have not returned to pre-2021 levels, suggesting that some structural repricing has occurred. The export propensity of EU production also fell sharply from 88.1% in 2015 to 61.0% in 2025, suggesting that more domestically produced nickel is being retained within the EU rather than re-exported.
3. Geopolitical Reorientation of Import Supply Chains
The period saw a fundamental reshuffling of the EU's nickel import sources, driven largely by the geopolitical fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions regime.
Russia's role collapsed from dominant supplier to marginal source
Russia was the EU's largest single import partner in 2015 at €638 million, and peaked at €1.38 billion before declining sharply to €289 million in 2025 (−54.8%). The decline accelerated after 2022 as EU sanctions on Russian metals and voluntary corporate disengagement reduced flows. The high volatility of Russian supplies (coefficient of variation of 0.46) reflects the instability introduced by these policy shifts. Meanwhile, the category of "countries and territories not specified for commercial or military reasons" also declined from €412 million to €178 million (−56.8%).
Canada and South Africa filled the supply gap left by Russia
Canada's nickel exports to the EU grew from €99 million in 2015 to €384 million in 2025 (+288.7%), peaking at €643 million. South Africa's growth was even more dramatic in percentage terms: from €33 million to €146 million (+340.9%), with a peak of €291 million. Norway remained the most stable large supplier, growing modestly from €493 million to €578 million (+17.1%) and serving as the EU's single largest source in 2025. Australia, by contrast, declined from €155 million to €64 million (−59.1%).
| Partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change (%) | CV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russian Federation | 638 | 289 | −54.8 | 0.46 |
| Norway | 493 | 578 | +17.1 | 0.15 |
| Canada | 99 | 384 | +288.7 | 0.38 |
| Australia | 155 | 64 | −59.1 | 0.50 |
| United Kingdom | 284 | 284 | +0.1 | 0.21 |
| South Africa | 33 | 146 | +340.9 | 0.43 |
Source: Top import partners
Import concentration decreased moderately while export markets diversified
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports fell from 1,718 to 1,551 (−9.8%), moving the market from the upper edge of moderate concentration toward a more diversified structure. The export HHI fell more sharply, from 2,098 to 1,151 (−45.1%), reflecting a broader diversification of EU export destinations — notably toward South Korea (+208%), India (+413%), and Brazil (+53%), while the United States (−62%) and the United Kingdom (−71%) declined as export markets.
EU Member States' roles shifted on both sides of the trade ledger
On the import side, the Netherlands remained the dominant entry point (€1.56 billion → €1.22 billion, −22%), handling more than half of all EU nickel imports by value. Sweden's imports grew significantly (€131 million → €212 million, +62%), while Germany's role collapsed (€233 million → €23 million, −90%). On the export side, Finland remained the largest exporter (€189 million → €115 million) with the highest specialisation index (RSCA of 0.878), while Italian exports grew from €9 million to €21 million (+133%).
Conclusion
The EU's unwrought nickel market over 2015–2025 was shaped by three intertwined dynamics: a long-term decline in traded volumes, a spectacular price shock in 2022, and a geopolitical reorientation of supply chains away from Russia. Despite these structural shifts, the EU's dependence on imported nickel has remained essentially unchanged, with net import reliance stable at 73–76% throughout the period and trade intensity still at 91.7% in 2025. Domestic production grew only modestly (from 54,066 to 58,000 tonnes, +7.3%) and was far from sufficient to reduce import reliance. The period demonstrated both the vulnerability of the EU's nickel supply chain to geopolitical shocks — particularly the disruption of Russian supplies — and the market's capacity, albeit slow and incomplete, to reorient toward alternative suppliers in Canada, South Africa, and Norway. With prices correcting from their 2022 highs but volumes continuing to decline into 2025, the EU's nickel trade outlook remains one of structural adjustment under persistent external dependence.