Market evolution: Unwrought nickel (CN 750210) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in unwrought nickel (CN 750210) over the period 2015–2025, covering imports, exports, trade balances, and the EU's strategic position in this critical raw material market. Nickel is a key input for stainless steel production and, increasingly, for electric vehicle batteries and energy transition technologies. The analysis draws on Eurostat trade data and reveals a market shaped by three major dynamics: a structural dependence on imports that has persisted despite modest domestic production growth, a dramatic reconfiguration of supply chains following geopolitical disruptions, and a price regime shift that has compressed volumes while elevating values. General Overview

1. A Market Structurally Dependent on Extra-EU Supply

The EU remains a net importer of unwrought nickel throughout the period

The EU's net import reliance for unwrought nickel remained persistently high, oscillating between 69.1% and 77.9% over the decade. Starting at 74.4% in 2015 and ending at 76.5% in 2025, the indicator shows that roughly three-quarters of EU nickel consumption relies on extra-EU sources. This structural deficit persisted even as EU domestic production edged up marginally from 47,200 tonnes to 48,000 tonnes (+1.7% in volume) and from €584 million to €600 million in value (+2.7%).

Trade volumes have contracted significantly while values have become more resilient

Over the 2015–2025 period, both import and export volumes fell sharply. Import quantities declined by 36.3%, from 207,382 tonnes to 132,082 tonnes, while export quantities dropped by 48.4%, from 34,087 tonnes to 17,584 tonnes. The trade deficit in value terms improved by 17.1%, narrowing from −€1.90 billion to −€1.58 billion, largely because unit prices rose substantially over the period.

Domestic specialisation is concentrated in a handful of EU Member States

EU production of unwrought nickel is geographically concentrated. Specialisation data for 2025 shows Finland as by far the most specialised producer (RCA of 17.6, RSCA of 0.89), followed by the Netherlands (RCA 4.5) and Belgium (RCA 1.5). The Netherlands alone accounts for 65.3% of EU nickel export value, reflecting its role as both a producer and a major transit hub via Rotterdam. In contrast, countries such as Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia show virtually no specialisation in this product.

2. A Supply Chain Redrawn by Geopolitics and Sanctions

Russian imports have collapsed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine

The most striking structural shift in the EU's nickel trade over the period is the decline in imports from Russia. Russian nickel imports fell by 53.5% in value, from €621 million in 2015 to €289 million in 2025. While Russia was the EU's largest single supplier in 2015, by 2025 it had been overtaken by Norway and Canada. The volatility data confirms that Russian import flows have been highly volatile (coefficient of variation of 0.46), consistent with a supply source subject to sanctions-related disruptions and self-sanctioning by European buyers.

Canada and South Africa have emerged as substitute suppliers

The decline in Russian and Australian supply has been offset by a dramatic increase in imports from Canada (+389%) and South Africa (+346%). Canada grew from a modest €79 million in 2015 to €384 million in 2025, while South Africa expanded from €32 million to €144 million. Both countries are major nickel-producing nations, and their rising share in EU imports reflects deliberate supply chain diversification away from Russia. Norway, the EU's geographically closest major nickel supplier, also grew steadily and remained the largest single supplier by 2025.

EU exports have become more diversified and less concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports fell from 2,028 in 2015 to 1,157 in 2025 (−43.0%), indicating a significant deconcentration of export destinations. Traditional markets such as the United States (−70%), the United Kingdom (−81%), and Taiwan (−89%) saw sharp declines, while exports to South Korea (+210%), India (+386%), and Brazil (+48%) expanded. This reorientation suggests EU exporters have diversified their customer base in response to shifting global demand patterns.

3. Price Shocks and the 2022 Nickel Market Turbulence

Unit prices surged between 2021 and 2022, then partially normalised

The period saw two distinct price regimes. From 2015 to 2020, import and export unit prices hovered around €8,600–€12,000/tonne, with a trough in 2020 at €8,660/tonne for imports. Prices then surged, peaking in 2022 at €23,360/tonne for imports and €24,215/tonne for exports — roughly double their 2015 levels. By 2025, prices had partially corrected to €13,760/tonne (imports) and €13,747/tonne (exports), still well above the 2015–2020 average.

*Approximate values inferred from min/max data; exact figures available in the trade dashboard.

Norway experienced a significant price shock in 2022

The supply shock analysis identified a notable price shock event for EU nickel imports from Norway in 2022. Norwegian import prices surged by 78.9% with an abnormality score of 10.8, and Norway accounted for 26.7% of EU nickel import value that year. This coincided with the broader commodity price spike triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the London Metal Exchange (LME) short squeeze in March 2022, which saw nickel prices briefly exceed $100,000/tonne before the exchange suspended trading.

Some supplier relationships show persistently high volatility

Beyond the 2022 shock, several import sources exhibit sustained volatility in their trade flows with the EU. Indonesia (CV 1.55), South Korea (1.41), China (1.00), and Madagascar (0.73) are among the most volatile import partners. On the export side, Hong Kong (CV 1.17) and Taiwan (0.90) show the highest variability. This volatility underscores the risks associated with emerging and opportunistic trade relationships, contrasting with the relative stability of established flows with Norway (CV 0.15) and the United Kingdom (CV 0.20).

Conclusion

The EU's trade in unwrought nickel over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural dependency, geopolitical disruption, and market adaptation. The EU remains heavily reliant on imports, with net import reliance consistently above 70%, while domestic production has barely grown. The most consequential development has been the collapse of Russian supply, driven by sanctions and reputational risks, which has reshaped import sourcing toward Canada, Norway, and South Africa. Meanwhile, export flows have become more diversified, with growing Asian markets replacing declining Anglo-Saxon ones. The 2022 price shock — triggered by the convergence of geopolitical conflict and speculative market dynamics — compressed volumes but temporarily inflated values, and while prices have since retreated, they remain elevated relative to the pre-2021 baseline. Looking forward, the EU's high import reliance (~77%) and the concentration of domestic production in a few Member States remain key vulnerabilities as nickel demand is expected to grow in line with the green energy transition.