Market evolution: Stone and plaster articles (CN 68) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Customs heading 68 — Articles of Stone, Plaster, Cement, Asbestos, Mica or Similar Materials — covers a wide range of processed mineral products, from worked natural stone and cement articles to mineral wool insulation, abrasive products, plaster articles, and carbon-fibre composites. The category spans fifteen four-digit sub-headings (CN 6801 through 6815) and maps to over thirty Prodcom product codes, reflecting its role as a heterogeneous "catch-all" for the EU's non-metallic mineral processing industries.

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU remained a consistent net exporter of CN 68 products, with its trade surplus widening modestly from €3.11 billion to €3.33 billion. However, this headline stability concealed three powerful structural dynamics: first, a broad-based surge in unit prices that masked stagnation or decline in traded volumes; second, a dramatic reconfiguration of the EU's trade partner landscape driven by geopolitical shocks, most notably the sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine; and third, highly uneven growth across the product sub-segments that make up this heading. This report examines each of these dynamics in turn.

1. Rising prices masked flat or declining traded volumes

EU export and import values both grew substantially, but volume trends diverged sharply from value trends

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the decoupling of trade values from underlying physical volumes. EU exports to non-EU countries rose from €7.01 billion to €8.49 billion (+21.1%), yet export volumes fell from 7.92 million tonnes to 6.57 million tonnes (−17.0%). On the import side, values climbed from €3.90 billion to €5.16 billion (+32.3%) while volumes barely moved, edging up from 4.78 to 4.82 million tonnes (+0.9%). In both cases, the entire value increase — and then some — was driven by higher unit prices.

Source: General Overview

Export unit prices increased by 46.0% over the period, while import prices rose by 31.2%. This differential is significant: it suggests that the EU's export basket shifted toward higher-value products or that EU producers succeeded in passing through cost increases more effectively than foreign competitors. The period from 2021 to 2022 saw the sharpest price acceleration, consistent with the broader surge in energy and construction-material costs across Europe following the post-pandemic recovery and the onset of the energy crisis.

EU domestic production exhibited the same pattern of value growth despite falling output volumes

Production data from the EU's Prodcom survey confirms that the value-volume gap was not merely a trade phenomenon but reflected underlying industrial trends. EU production volumes declined from 316 billion square metres to 259 billion square metres (−18.0%), while production values rose from €38.5 billion to €55.5 billion (+44.1%). This implies a domestic unit-value increase substantially larger than the export or import price movements, suggesting that cost pressures — energy, raw materials, labour — were felt most acutely in the home market.

Source: Production volumes

The EU's net export surplus widened modestly, supported by price dynamics and growing trade openness

The trade balance improved from €3.11 billion to €3.33 billion (+7.1%), while net import reliance moved from −4.4% to −5.8%, meaning the EU strengthened its position as a net exporter. More notably, trade intensity (exports plus imports as a share of production) rose from 12.4% to 21.1% (+70.2%), and export propensity (exports as a share of production) climbed from 8.6% to 14.2% (+65.5%). These figures indicate that CN 68 products became significantly more integrated into international trade over the decade, even as the EU's competitive advantage in net terms improved slightly.

2. Geopolitical disruptions reconfigured the EU's trade partners

Imports from Russia and Belarus collapsed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, creating supply shocks

The most dramatic partner-level event of the decade was the near-total elimination of imports from Russia and Belarus. Russian imports fell from €77 million in 2015 to just €1.5 million in 2025 (−98.1%), while Belarusian imports collapsed from €13 million to €1 million (−92.5%). The data identifies a supply shock for Russian imports centred on 2024 with an abnormality score of 3.2 and a volume decline of −99.4%, and a price shock for Belarus centred on 2023 with an abnormality score of 6.8 and a price increase of +220%. Both disruptions were highly volatile: the coefficient of variation for Belarusian import values was 0.90 and for Russian imports 0.73, far above the levels observed for other partners.

Türkiye emerged as the fastest-growing import source, while China consolidated its position as the leading supplier

The void left by Russian and Belarusian suppliers was partly filled by Türkiye, whose exports to the EU surged from €152 million to €468 million (+207.5%), peaking at €502 million in 2024. Türkiye's coefficient of variation (0.42) was elevated but well below that of the disrupted suppliers. China remained the EU's largest import source throughout the period, growing from €1.06 billion to €1.38 billion (+30.3%), roughly in line with overall import growth. India and Norway also expanded their shares, growing by 31.8% and 31.2% respectively.

Source: Top partners by value

The net effect on import concentration was a modest diversification: the import HHI fell from 1,443 to 1,302 (−9.8%) by value, and even more sharply from 2,753 to 1,455 (−47.1%) by volume, reflecting the disappearance of Russian and Belarusian supply and the rise of multiple alternative sources.

Export destinations became more concentrated, with the United States and United Kingdom commanding a growing share

On the export side, the EU's top three destinations — the United States, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland — all expanded their purchases significantly. The United States grew from €1.32 billion to €1.81 billion (+37.6%), the United Kingdom from €1.13 billion to €1.43 billion (+26.7%), and Switzerland from €683 million to €841 million (+23.1%). Serbia emerged as a high-growth destination, more than doubling from €46 million to €116 million (+150.9%).

Source: Top partners by value

This growth among a handful of key buyers drove export concentration upward: the export HHI rose from 834 to 980 (+17.5%) by value and from 874 to 1,174 (+34.2%) by volume. The top seven export partners accounted for an estimated 57% of total EU CN 68 exports by 2025, up from 54% in 2015 — a counter-trend to the diversification observed on the import side.

Within the EU, the largest member states maintained their positions while Poland and the Netherlands gained export weight

Germany remained the EU's leading exporter of CN 68 products, with exports rising from €1.61 billion to €2.00 billion (+24.5%), closely followed by Italy at €1.90 billion (essentially flat at −1.0%). Poland (+71.0%) and the Netherlands (+102.2%) recorded the fastest export growth among major EU exporters, suggesting an eastward and logistics-hub shift in the EU's production geography. On the import side, Poland also saw the fastest growth (+120.9%), followed by Spain (+134.2%), while Germany and the Netherlands remained broadly stable.

3. Sub-segment growth was highly uneven across product categories

Imports of natural stone setts and curbstones contracted dramatically, while cement and concrete articles more than doubled

The product segment breakdown reveals that import dynamics varied sharply across the seven principal sub-headings. The most dramatic decline was in CN 6801 (setts, curbstones, and flagstones of natural stone), where import volumes fell from 1.22 million tonnes to 631 thousand tonnes (−48.0%) and values dropped from €191 million to €123 million (−35.9%). Imports of CN 6807 (articles of asphalt and similar materials) also contracted sharply, with volumes falling from 239 thousand tonnes to 66 thousand tonnes (−72.2%).

By contrast, CN 6810 (articles of cement, concrete, or artificial stone) recorded the strongest volume growth, with imports rising from 444 thousand tonnes to 944 thousand tonnes (+112.6%) and values doubling from €235 million to €470 million (+100.2%). Plaster articles (CN 6809) also grew strongly in value, rising from €65 million to €117 million (+78.4%).

Source: Product segment breakdown

CN 6815 — a heterogeneous category including carbon fibres — dominated the import value landscape and continued to grow

The largest import segment by value was CN 6815 ("Articles of stone or of other mineral substances, including carbon fibres"), which grew from €1.04 billion to €1.41 billion (+35.5%) despite only modest volume growth (178 to 205 thousand tonnes). The unit price for this segment averaged €6,839 per tonne in 2025 — roughly five times the overall CN 68 average — reflecting the inclusion of high-value carbon-fibre products alongside more conventional stone articles. This segment also exhibited the highest and most variable import prices, rising from €5,827/t in 2015 with a peak of €8,590/t in 2023, consistent with supply tightness in advanced materials markets.

Export sub-segments showed divergent volume trajectories but broadly rising unit prices across the board

On the export side, cement and concrete articles (CN 6810) remained the largest sub-segment by volume (2.39 million tonnes in 2025) but saw a declining trend from a peak of 3.22 million tonnes in 2018. Natural stone exports (CN 6802) declined steadily in volume from 2.26 to 1.35 million tonnes (−40.2%), though their value fell only 7.6% (from €1.95 billion to €1.80 billion) thanks to sharply rising unit prices (from €863/t to €1,331/t, +54.2%). CN 6815 exports grew from €946 million to €1,565 million (+65.4%), reinforcing its emergence as the most dynamic value segment.

Source: Product segment breakdown

The overall pattern across export sub-segments is one of volume restraint coupled with price strength: even in categories where export volumes declined, unit prices rose sufficiently to more than compensate, resulting in higher total export values. This is consistent with the broader macroeconomic environment of the period — constrained construction activity in key markets, elevated energy costs, and a general shift toward higher-value-added products in the EU's industrial base.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 68 products over the 2015–2025 decade tells a story of resilience beneath surface turbulence. The EU maintained — and modestly strengthened — its position as a net exporter, with the trade surplus growing from €3.1 billion to €3.3 billion. However, this headline stability masked three deeper transformations.

First, the entire growth in trade values was driven by price increases rather than volume expansion. Export volumes fell 17% while values rose 21%; import volumes were flat while values rose 32%. This price inflation, which mirrored a 44% rise in domestic production values despite an 18% decline in output volumes, reflects the energy and construction-cost pressures that characterised the post-2020 European economy.

Second, the EU's trade geography was reshaped by geopolitical events. The near-total elimination of Russian and Belarusian imports (combined loss of approximately €89 million) was more than offset by the surge of Turkish exports to the EU (+207.5%) and the continued growth of Chinese and Indian supply. On the export side, the United States and United Kingdom consolidated their dominance, together accounting for an estimated 38% of EU CN 68 exports by 2025.

Third, the product mix shifted meaningfully. Natural stone and asphalt articles lost ground in imports, while cement/concrete articles and high-value mineral products (including carbon fibres in CN 6815) gained share. The EU's growing trade intensity (from 12.4% to 21.1% of production) and export propensity (from 8.6% to 14.2%) point to an industry that is becoming more internationally oriented even as its domestic production volumes contract — a pattern consistent with the broader structural evolution of European manufacturing toward higher-value, more trade-intensive activities.