Market evolution: Mineral articles (CN 6815) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of European Union trade in articles of stone, mineral substances, carbon fibres, and peat (Customs Code 6815) from 2015 to 2025. The period is characterised by a substantial transformation of the EU's trade position, moving from a deficit to a surplus, driven by significant shifts in export value and pricing dynamics. Key underlying factors include changes in trade partners, product mix, and likely strategic industrial developments, particularly in high-value carbon fibre segments.

An Outward Turn: From Structural Deficit to Sustained Surplus

The most striking feature of the EU's trade in CN 6815 products over the decade is its profound reversal in trade balance. The bloc transitioned from a consistent importer to a net exporter, reflecting a fundamental shift in competitive positioning and supply chain dynamics.

The Deficit-to-Surplus Trajectory

In 2015, the EU registered a trade deficit of €-91.3 million. By 2025, this had transformed into a surplus of €160.0 million, a change of 275.3%. The shift was not linear; the surplus peaked at €249.3 million in 2022. This overall improvement is a direct result of export growth significantly outpacing import growth (Trade Balance).

Export-Led Growth Fueled by Price Increases

EU exports of CN 6815 products grew strongly in value (65.4%), reaching €1.56 billion in 2025. This growth was price-driven: export quantities increased by 23.9%, while the average export price rose by 33.5% to €6,717 per tonne. This indicates a move towards higher-value-added products or successful pricing power. In contrast, import value growth (35.4%) was more closely tied to volume growth (15.4%), with prices rising 17.4% to €6,839 per tonne.

Evolving Reliance and Reduced Vulnerability

The EU's net import reliance for CN 6815 shifted dramatically. In 2015, it stood at 19.1%, indicating dependency on foreign supply. By 2025, this metric turned negative (-2.6%), signifying the EU had become a net exporter. Concurrently, the trade intensity (the share of trade relative to production) decreased from 69.2% to 57.5%, suggesting either growth in domestic production outpacing trade, or a strategic reduction in open-economy exposure.

Restructuring the Partnership Landscape

The period saw a notable reconfiguration of the EU's key trading partners for CN 6815 products, involving the strengthening of ties with major economies, the emergence of new partners, and a general diversification away from historical concentrations.

Consolidation with Traditional and Strategic Partners

The United Kingdom and the United States remained the EU's top two export destinations throughout the period. Exports to the UK grew by 36.5% to €282.8 million, while exports to the US surged by 54.0% to €343.6 million. Notably, the US is also a major source of EU imports, with trade flows indicating deep, integrated supply chains. Japan is another key bilateral partner, with the EU importing €121.8 million from Japan in 2025 and exporting a more modest amount, highlighting Japan's role as a supplier in likely specialized segments.

The Rise of Chinese Trade and Diversification

Trade with China evolved from a predominantly one-way flow to a more balanced, high-volume relationship. EU imports from China more than doubled (+131.7% to €268.8 million), reflecting China's role as a manufacturing base for various mineral and carbon articles. Crucially, EU exports to China grew even more explosively (+169.4% to €195.2 million), indicating that the EU successfully positioned itself as a supplier of high-value goods to the Chinese market (Top Partners).

Emerging Partners and Geopolitical Shifts

Several partners experienced extraordinary growth. Imports from Türkiye and exports to Ukraine surged by over 400% and 600%, respectively. Ukraine's inclusion as a top export destination in 2025, amidst geopolitical conflict, suggests strategic solidarity and a reorientation of supply chains. Trade with North Macedonia also saw a massive, though smaller in absolute terms, increase in imports. These trends point towards both nearshoring and strategic partnerships becoming more important.

The High-Value Carbon Fibre Anchor and Production Realignment

The product segment breakdown reveals that the overall trade performance is anchored by the high-value carbon fibre sub-sectors (681511, 681512, 681513, 681519), which were fully reported from 2022 onwards. These segments dominated EU trade flows and drove the aggregate price and value increases.

Dominance of Advanced Carbon Materials

In 2025, the four carbon fibre-related sub-codes accounted for the vast majority of the EU's CN 6815 trade value:

• Imports: €1,154 million (82% of total CN 6815 imports)
• Exports: €1,282 million (82% of total CN 6815 exports)

The import unit prices for these segments are exceptionally high (e.g., €25,049/t for carbon fibres), indicating a reliance on specialized, advanced inputs. The EU, however, commands even higher export prices for finished articles (e.g., €47,452/t for carbon fibre articles), demonstrating successful technology- or brand-intensive downstream processing (Product Segment Breakdown).

The Decline and Rebound of Traditional Mineral Articles

The older, traditional segments (681591, 681599) showed divergent paths. Exports of "other stone articles" (681599) peaked in volume in 2018 before declining, while their value remained relatively stable due to rising prices. In contrast, exports of magnesite/dolomite articles (681591) plummeted from 2015 to 2020 before a strong rebound in 2021-2022, coinciding with periods of industrial demand volatility.

Domestic Production Boom

EU production of CN 6815 products grew dramatically over the period. Production value increased by 1,093.8% to €3.78 billion, and quantity by a reported 4,906.1% to 12.1 billion kilograms. While the magnitude of the quantity change may reflect a change in reporting methodology or scope, the value increase strongly supports the narrative of expanded domestic capacity, particularly in the high-value segments that are now driving exports.

Conclusion

The EU trade in mineral articles (CN 6815) between 2015 and 2025 underwent a fundamental transformation. The union moved from a position of net import dependency to one of export leadership, primarily by capitalizing on the high-value-added carbon fibre supply chain. This shift was supported by growing competitiveness, successful penetration of major and emerging markets, and a significant expansion in domestic production. While traditional mineral commodity flows showed volatility, the strategic bet on advanced materials appears to have paid off, underpinning the sector's improved trade balance and integration into global high-tech industrial networks. The data suggests a sector that has successfully moved up the value chain.