Market evolution: Asphalt articles (CN 6807) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in CN 6807 — articles of asphalt or of similar materials (e.g. petroleum bitumen or coal tar pitch) — over the period 2015 to 2025. The product covers two sub-categories: articles in rolls (680710), which dominate volumes, and articles not in rolls (680790), a smaller segment.

Over the decade, the EU consolidated its position as a structural net exporter of asphalt articles. Total trade value grew on the export side (+14.1%, from €309 million to €353 million), while imports contracted sharply (−38.8%, from €90 million to €55 million). Yet behind these aggregate figures lies a far more turbulent story: volumes moved in the opposite direction to values, import sourcing was restructured under geopolitical pressure, and unit prices more than doubled. The following three sections unpack these dynamics.

1. A Decade of Rising Prices and Shrinking Volumes

1.1 Export values held firm despite a one-fifth drop in tonnage

Between 2015 and 2025, EU export volumes declined by 20.7%, falling from 519,200 tonnes to 411,864 tonnes. Over the same period, the average export unit price rose by 43.9%, from €595/t to €856/t, nearly fully compensating for the tonnage loss and pushing total export value up by 14.1% to €353 million.

1.2 Import prices surged even more steeply, while volumes collapsed

Imports tell a more dramatic story. Import volumes plunged by 72.2%, from 238,777 tonnes to just 66,350 tonnes. Meanwhile, the average import price rose by 120.3%, from €379/t to €834/t — meaning that by 2025, import and export unit prices had almost converged. The net result was a 38.8% decline in total import value, to €55 million.

1.3 The price trajectory reflects input-cost inflation and energy shocks

The sharp rise in unit prices — for both imports and exports — is consistent with the well-documented surge in petroleum bitumen costs following the post-COVID commodity rally of 2021 and the energy-price spike triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Notably, the most abrupt price increases occurred between 2021 and 2022: for sub-category 680710 (in rolls), import prices jumped from €419/t to €604/t in a single year, and export prices from €679/t to €873/t. This pattern aligns with the broader energy and raw-material cost environment of that period.

2. A Major Geopolitical Reconfiguration of Import Sourcing

2.1 Russia's near-total exit from the EU market

The single most striking structural change in this trade is the collapse of imports from Russia. In 2015, Russia was the EU's largest import partner for CN 6807, supplying €57 million (63% of total imports). By 2025, this had fallen to just €0.5 million — a 99.1% decline. The sharpest drop occurred between 2021 and 2023, coinciding with the EU sanctions regime adopted following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

2.2 Turkey and Serbia filled the supply gap

The vacuum left by Russia was partly absorbed by Türkiye and Serbia. Turkish imports grew by 925%, from €1.5 million to €15.9 million, making Türkiye the EU's top import partner by 2025. Serbian imports rose from €1.3 million to €10.0 million (+651%). However, these two countries together supplied €26 million in 2025 — less than half of what Russia alone supplied a decade earlier. This indicates that part of the supply loss was not replaced, contributing to the overall import volume collapse.

2.3 Import concentration fell sharply as sourcing diversified

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value dropped from 4,251 in 2015 to 1,700 in 2025, a 60% decline. An HHI above 2,500 typically signals a highly concentrated market; the 2015 figure reflected Russia's dominance. By 2025, the market had become moderately concentrated, with no single partner dominating — a direct consequence of Russia's exit and the emergence of multiple smaller suppliers.

2.4 Within the EU, import demand shrank most in Eastern Member States

Among EU Member States, the largest import declines were recorded in Poland (−88.2%), Lithuania (−90.5%), and Czechia (−70.5%). These countries had historically been the most reliant on Russian supply due to geographic proximity. The decline suggests both a sourcing disruption and, potentially, a substitution toward domestic EU production or alternative partners.

3. Italy Anchors the EU's Export Strength While Trade Openness Narrows

3.1 Italy is the dominant EU exporter, with Germany catching up

Italy has consistently been the EU's largest exporter of CN 6807, shipping €125 million in 2025 (up 2.6% from €122 million in 2015). Italy alone accounts for roughly one-third of all EU exports. Its Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.50 confirms a strong specialisation in this product.

Germany's exports nearly doubled (+88.5%), rising from €36 million to €68 million, making it the second-largest EU exporter by 2025. Belgium also grew strongly (+58.3%). Conversely, Finland's exports collapsed by 71.8%, and Spain's fell by a third.

3.2 The UK remains the EU's top export destination

The United Kingdom absorbed €100 million of EU exports in 2025 (+30.8% from 2015), representing nearly 28% of total extra-EU exports. Switzerland (+71.4% to €34 million) and Israel (+26.5% to €26 million) are also significant and growing markets. Notably, EU exports to Russia collapsed by 99.8% — from €14.3 million to virtually zero — mirroring the import-side disruption.

3.3 The EU is a consistent net exporter, and the surplus widened

Throughout the entire period, the EU maintained a positive trade balance in CN 6807, growing from €218 million in 2015 to €297 million in 2025 (+36%). The net import reliance ratio remained consistently negative (indicating net export status), deepening from −11.0% to −12.6%.

3.4 Trade intensity and export propensity declined modestly

Despite the strong surplus, trade intensity — the share of trade relative to production — fell from 16.8% to 15.4%. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) edged down from 13.6% to 13.5%. This modest inward turn is consistent with the observed import collapse and suggests that the EU's asphalt articles market has become somewhat more self-contained over the decade, even as its export base remained resilient.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 6807 evolved substantially between 2015 and 2025. Three forces shaped this evolution: (1) a persistent rise in unit prices — reflecting input-cost inflation and the 2022 energy shock — which allowed export values to hold firm despite declining volumes; (2) a dramatic geopolitical restructuring of import supply chains following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which saw Russia's share collapse from 63% to under 1% of imports, with Turkey and Serbia emerging as replacement suppliers; and (3) a strengthening of the EU's net exporter position, anchored by Italy and increasingly supported by Germany, with the trade surplus widening to €297 million.

The key vulnerability that emerges from the data is the EU's reduced import base: while diversification has lowered concentration risk (HHI down 60%), total import volume has fallen by 72%, meaning the EU is now significantly more dependent on its own production capacity than it was a decade ago. This self-reliance may prove advantageous in an era of geopolitical uncertainty, but it also leaves the market more exposed to domestic supply-chain disruptions or raw-material shortages.