Market evolution: Friction material brake pads (CN 6813) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in CN 6813 — friction material and articles thereof (e.g., sheets, rolls, strips, segments, discs, washers, and pads, not mounted, for brakes, clutches and the like) — over the period 2015–2025. The product scope encompasses three sub-headings: brake linings and pads (681381), other friction material excluding asbestos (681389), and asbestos-containing friction material (681320). The analysis covers the overall trade overview, partner dynamics, market structure, volatility, and vulnerability indicators. Three major dynamics emerge from the data: a pronounced volume-price divergence, significant shifts in trade partner composition driven by geopolitical factors, and a structural recomposition of sub-segments alongside growing trade intensity.
1. A Decade of Shrinking Volumes and Rising Unit Values
The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 6813 over 2015–2025 is the simultaneous contraction of traded volumes and the strong increase in unit values on both the import and export sides.
Export volumes fell by 38% while export values rose by 11%
Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of friction material declined from 15,610 tonnes to 9,665 tonnes — a drop of 38.1%. Despite this, the total export value increased from €144.4 million to €160.6 million (+11.2%). The explanation lies in a dramatic rise in average export unit values, which climbed from €9,166/t to €16,604/t (+81.2%). This indicates that the EU has been exporting progressively higher-value-added friction material even as aggregate tonnage shrinks.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 144.4 | 160.6 | +11.2% |
| Export quantity (t) | 15,610 | 9,665 | −38.1% |
| Export price (€/t) | 9,166 | 16,604 | +81.2% |
Import volumes also declined, but value remained flat
EU imports contracted from 14,240 tonnes to 10,837 tonnes (−23.9%). Unlike exports, import values barely changed (€133.1 million to €133.6 million, +0.3%), as the increase in unit prices (€9,349/t to €12,323/t, +31.8%) roughly offset the volume decline. The smaller price increase on the import side compared to the export side contributed to a widening of the EU's trade surplus.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (€M) | 133.1 | 133.6 | +0.3% |
| Import quantity (t) | 14,240 | 10,837 | −23.9% |
| Import price (€/t) | 9,349 | 12,323 | +31.8% |
The EU trade balance improved markedly
The EU's trade surplus in CN 6813 widened from €11.3 million in 2015 to €27.0 million in 2025 (+139.2%). The net import reliance indicator confirms this: it was consistently negative (indicating net exporter status), moving from −5.9% to −4.0%. The EU briefly approached self-sufficiency in 2023, when net import reliance briefly turned positive at +1.6%, before reverting to a surplus in 2024–2025.
Domestic production contracted in parallel
EU production volumes fell sharply — from 119,401 tonnes to 73,395 tonnes (−38.5%) — and production value declined from €637 million to €535 million (−16.0%). The fact that production value declined less steeply than production quantity mirrors the trade-side price dynamics: the friction material industry is producing fewer tonnes but at higher average prices, reflecting a shift toward premium, higher-value products.
2. Shifting Partners and Geopolitical Disruptions
The partner composition of EU friction material trade underwent significant changes over the decade, shaped by Brexit, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and evolving competitive dynamics from emerging economies.
The United States remained the dominant import supplier but with price volatility
The United States was by far the largest source of EU imports throughout the period, accounting for roughly 48% of import value in 2025 (€63.9 million). However, this trade fluctuated considerably, with import values ranging from €35.3 million to €82.4 million over the period. A notable price shock in EU exports to the US occurred in 2019, when export unit values surged by 42.7%.
China's role grew on both sides of the trade ledger
Chinese imports into the EU rose from €17.5 million to €23.4 million (+33.5%), making China the second-largest import source by 2025. On the export side, EU shipments to China also grew — from €18.2 million to €24.8 million (+36.6%) — reflecting China's dual role as both a competitive supplier and a growing market for European friction material. The coefficient of variation of trade with China was relatively low (0.14 for imports, 0.25 for exports), indicating a stable and structural trade relationship.
Brazil's share eroded while India surged as an export destination
Brazil, the second-largest import source in 2015 (€25.3 million), saw its share decline to €17.2 million by 2025 (−31.9%). A sharp price shock in Brazilian imports was detected in 2023, with unit values jumping 45.7%. Conversely, EU exports to India experienced the most dramatic growth of any major partner — from €5.2 million to €23.8 million (+357.4%) — propelled by India's expanding automotive sector.
Geopolitical shocks reshaped European and near-market trade
- Russia: EU exports to the Russian Federation collapsed from €7.7 million to €0.25 million (−96.8%), reflecting the impact of EU sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This was among the most volatile trade relationships (CV of 0.51).
- United Kingdom: Post-Brexit, both import and export flows with the UK declined — imports fell 21.3% and exports fell 45.6% — consistent with the introduction of customs frictions and regulatory divergence after January 2021.
- Mexico: EU exports to Mexico dropped from €20.5 million to €6.3 million (−69.2%), with high volatility (CV 0.57), suggesting possible supply-chain reorientation toward local or US-based suppliers.
The intra-EU member state picture diverged
Among EU member states, Germany dominated both imports (€48.5 million, stable) and exports (€73.1 million, down 8.9%). France significantly increased its export footprint (+68.3% to €39.0 million), while Czechia emerged as a growing exporter (+119.1% to €7.5 million). On the import side, Italy's import bill tripled (+218.8% to €14.5 million), while Spain and the Netherlands saw steep declines (−54.1% and −43.5% respectively).
3. Structural Recomposition: Sub-Segments, Specialisation, and Growing Trade Intensity
Beyond aggregate flows, the composition of CN 6813 trade shifted markedly between its three sub-headings, and the EU's friction material sector became more specialised and more internationally oriented.
Brake linings and pads (681381) lost ground in volumes; other friction material (681389) gained
The product segment breakdown reveals divergent trajectories:
- 681381 (brake linings and pads): Import volumes fell by more than half — from 10,630 tonnes to 5,099 tonnes — while unit values more than doubled (€3,996/t to €8,415/t). On the export side, volumes also declined (12,443t to 6,893t), but export unit values rose from €6,055/t to €10,988/t (+81.5%). This sub-segment is shrinking in tonnage but moving up-market.
- 681389 (other friction material, excl. brake linings and asbestos): Import volumes grew from 3,422 tonnes to 5,728 tonnes (+67.4%), with import values rising from €88.5 million to €90.5 million. This sub-segment is becoming the dominant import category, with a substantially higher average unit value (€15,792/t in 2025). On the export side, unit values surged from €21,330/t to €30,546/t (+43.2%), indicating premium product positioning.
- 681320 (asbestos-based): Trade in asbestos-containing friction material has effectively collapsed. Import volumes fell from 187 tonnes to just 10 tonnes, and export volumes remained negligible. This reflects the EU's progressive ban on asbestos and its derivatives.
| Sub-segment | Import qty 2015 (t) | Import qty 2025 (t) | Export qty 2015 (t) | Export qty 2025 (t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 681381 – Brake linings | 10,630 | 5,099 | 12,443 | 6,893 |
| 681389 – Other friction | 3,422 | 5,728 | 3,155 | 2,767 |
| 681320 – Asbestos-based | 187 | 10 | 12 | 4 |
The EU maintains comparative advantage in friction material
The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that several EU member states hold strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in this product:
| Member State | RSCA | RCA | Share of EU production | Share of EU exports |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 0.61 | 4.14 | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| France | 0.48 | 2.82 | 22.0% | 7.8% |
| Spain | 0.37 | 2.19 | 12.7% | 5.8% |
| Germany | 0.31 | 1.90 | 40.2% | 21.2% |
| Czechia | 0.07 | 1.14 | 5.5% | 4.8% |
Germany accounts for 40.2% of EU production and 21.2% of extra-EU exports, confirming its role as the sector's anchor. France and Spain also show strong specialisation. By contrast, Hungary, Croatia, Portugal, and Ireland display negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers with little competitive positioning in this sector.
Import concentration increased while export markets diversified
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose slightly from 2,786 to 2,859 (+2.6%), indicating moderately concentrated import sourcing — the US alone accounts for roughly half. By volume, import concentration rose more sharply (HHI from 1,952 to 2,967, +52.0%). On the export side, concentration fell (HHI from 929 to 813, −12.5% by value), indicating that EU exporters are selling to a more diversified set of markets. This diversification is a positive resilience signal, even as some traditional export markets (Russia, Mexico, UK) contracted.
Trade intensity and export propensity reached their highest levels
The trade intensity of the EU friction material sector nearly doubled — from 26.7% to 45.9% (+72.0%) — and export propensity rose from 17.8% to 31.1% (+75.4%). Both indicators reached their highest levels in 2025. This means the EU friction material industry has become significantly more dependent on international markets over the decade — a trend driven both by declining domestic consumption (linked partly to the electrification transition reducing demand for conventional brake pads) and by the sector's reorientation toward higher-value export niches.
Conclusion
The EU trade in friction material (CN 6813) over 2015–2025 is characterised by a fundamental structural transformation. Physical volumes have contracted sharply — down roughly 38% on both the import and export sides — yet the sector has moved decisively up-market, with export unit values rising 81% and the trade surplus widening to €27 million. The asbestos-based sub-segment has effectively disappeared, while non-brake friction material (681389) has become the highest-value component on both sides of the ledger. Geopolitical events — Brexit, the Russia–Ukraine war, and sanctions — have reshaped partner flows, with Russia collapsing as an export destination and India emerging as a major growth market. Import sourcing remains concentrated around the United States and increasingly China, while EU export markets have become more diversified. The sector's rising trade intensity and export propensity signal deeper global integration, but also heightened exposure to external demand shifts. The EU retains comparative advantage in this product, anchored by Germany, France, and Spain, though the ongoing transition toward electric vehicles may continue to reshape demand patterns for conventional brake and clutch friction material in the years ahead.