Market evolution: Fiber cement (CN 6811) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of Articles of asbestos-cement, cellulose fibre-cement or the like (CN 6811) within the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers corrugated sheets, panels, tiles, and other articles made from cellulose fibre-cement—materials widely used in construction and industrial applications. Over this eleven-year window, the EU trade balance for CN 6811 remained structurally positive, yet the underlying dynamics shifted significantly: imports grew much faster than exports, production volumes declined, and geopolitical disruptions reshaped supplier relationships. The following sections detail these transformations and assess their implications for the EU's competitive position in this sector.

I. A Widening Gap: Import Growth Outpaces Exports Despite a Persistent Trade Surplus

EU exports expanded in value but stagnated in volume

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's total exports of CN 6811 products rose from €104.8 million to €164.3 million, an increase of 56.7%. However, this growth was almost entirely price-driven: export volumes grew only 8.4% over the same period (from 196,146 tonnes to 212,672 tonnes), while the average unit export price climbed 44.5% (from €534/t to €772/t). This suggests that the EU's export growth reflects higher-value product mix or inflationary pass-through rather than significant market-share gains in physical terms.

Imports surged in both volume and value

The import side tells a very different story. EU imports of CN 6811 products increased by 175.4% in value (from €32.9 million to €90.6 million) and by 137.8% in volume (from 42,970 tonnes to 102,200 tonnes). The import unit price rose more modestly, by 15.8% (from €765/t to €886/t). The acceleration in import volumes—more than doubling over the decade—indicates that non-EU producers gained substantial ground in the European market.

The trade surplus narrowed in relative terms

The EU remained a net exporter throughout the period. However, net import reliance deepened from −4.7% to −11.6%, meaning the EU's export surplus relative to production shrank. At the same time, trade intensity (total trade relative to production) nearly tripled from 11.1% to 29.8%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 8.0% to 21.8%. The EU's fibre-cement sector thus became considerably more trade-oriented over the decade, with rising import penetration posing an increasing competitive challenge.

EU production declined over the period

The intensification of trade occurred against a backdrop of falling domestic production. EU production of CN 6811 products decreased by 28.8% in volume (from 356.5 million kg to 253.7 million kg) and by 8.8% in value (from €783 million to €714 million) between 2015 and 2025. This contraction in output, combined with rising imports, underscores the shifting competitive landscape.

II. Geopolitical Realignments and the Rise of Asian Suppliers

China became the EU's largest import source

The most striking shift on the import side was the emergence of China as the dominant supplier. Chinese exports to the EU surged from €7.8 million in 2015 to €34.4 million in 2025, a gain of 342.8%. China alone accounted for over one-third of EU imports by 2025, reflecting the country's massive production capacity and competitive pricing in cement-based building products.

Emerging Asian and Mediterranean suppliers also gained ground

Several other non-traditional suppliers expanded rapidly into the EU market:

Türkiye and Thailand, in particular, moved from negligible positions in 2015 to become significant suppliers by 2025, with import values multiplying more than twenty-fold. These countries benefit from proximity to raw materials, lower labour costs, and growing industrial capacity in fibre-cement production.

Russia collapsed as an export destination

On the export side, the most dramatic development was the near-total disappearance of exports to the Russian Federation. Russian imports of EU fibre-cement products fell from €4.1 million in 2015 to effectively zero by 2025 (−100%), a direct consequence of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Similarly, exports to Algeria declined sharply by 92.8% (from €6.7 million to €0.5 million).

The United Kingdom cemented its role as the EU's primary export market

UK imports of EU fibre-cement products grew from €56.0 million to €102.0 million (+82.2%), representing over 62% of total EU exports by 2025. This dominance reflects geographic proximity, established supply chains, and the UK's continued reliance on EU-manufactured building materials even after Brexit. Switzerland also grew significantly as a destination (+170.2%), while the United States expanded from €5.2 million to €10.1 million (+95.1%).

Export concentration intensified while import sources diversified slightly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports rose from 3,109 to 4,083 by value (+31.3%), confirming growing reliance on a smaller set of destinations—principally the UK. On the import side, HHI increased more moderately from 1,877 to 2,175 (+15.9%), reflecting a slight broadening of supply sources even as China's share grew substantially.

III. Product Mix, Price Dynamics, and Intra-EU Specialisation

Non-asbestos fibre-cement products dominate the trade

The product segment breakdown confirms that asbestos-containing products (CN 681140) are negligible in both imports and exports, consistent with the EU's long-standing ban on asbestos. The vast majority of trade flows through three subcategories:

• CN 681182 (sheets, panels, tiles — non-asbestos, non-corrugated): the largest category in both directions
• CN 681181 (corrugated sheets — non-asbestos): significant in exports
• CN 681189 (other articles — non-asbestos): a smaller but growing segment

Import volumes surged for flat panels and other articles

Imports of CN 681182 (sheets, panels, tiles) grew from 21,374 tonnes in 2015 to 82,815 tonnes in 2025 (+287%), with value rising from €18.0 million to €66.7 million. This subcategory absorbed the bulk of the import surge, likely driven by demand for cladding, roofing panels, and facade materials. CN 681189 (other articles) also saw strong volume growth from 8,107 tonnes to 14,005 tonnes (+73%), while CN 681181 (corrugated sheets) imports actually declined from 13,479 tonnes to 5,080 tonnes (−62%), suggesting EU domestic producers retained competitiveness in this traditional product.

Export prices rose significantly across product lines

EU export prices increased markedly over the period, reflecting cost pressures (energy, raw materials, labour) and a possible shift toward higher-value products:

• CN 681182: from €653/t to €973/t (+49%)
• CN 681181: from €322/t to €428/t (+33%)
• CN 681189: from €847/t to €1,855/t (+119%)

The sharp price increase for CN 681189 (other articles) is notable and may reflect a composition shift toward more specialised or customised fibre-cement products. Import prices for CN 681182 were lower than export prices (€806/t vs €973/t in 2025), confirming a price advantage for non-EU suppliers in the largest segment.

Central and Eastern European producers emerged as key exporters

The specialisation analysis reveals that several Central and Eastern European EU members developed strong export positions in fibre-cement products:

Czechia stands out as the largest specialised exporter, accounting for 17.2% of EU export value in 2025 with exports growing from €13.6 million to €28.3 million (+108%). Hungary's export growth was even more dramatic, surging from €0.09 million to €6.95 million (+7,526%), though from a very low base. These countries benefit from proximity to major markets, competitive production costs, and established industrial capacity in building materials.

Price shocks in 2021 signalled supply chain stress

The volatility analysis detected two notable price shock events centred on 2021:

• United Kingdom (imports): a price abnormality of 156.5 with a 53.9% shift, affecting 11.1% of import value
• United States (imports): a price abnormality of 3.1 with a 38.5% shift, affecting 15.5% of import value

These shocks align with the global supply chain disruptions of 2021, including surging energy costs, container shipping bottlenecks, and post-pandemic construction demand recovery. The UK shock was particularly severe in magnitude, likely compounded by post-Brexit trade friction. Some import partners also exhibited high volatility (coefficient of variation), notably India (CV: 0.88) and Indonesia (CV: 0.74), indicating that these sources, while growing, remain unreliable in terms of consistency.

Conclusion

The EU's fibre-cement market (CN 6811) underwent significant structural change between 2015 and 2025. While the EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout, the period was characterised by three overarching trends: (1) a dramatic acceleration of imports, particularly from China, Türkiye, and Thailand, which more than tripled in value and more than doubled in volume; (2) a more modest expansion of exports, concentrated heavily on the UK market and increasingly driven by price rather than volume growth; and (3) a contraction in EU domestic production, which fell by nearly 30% in volume.

The rising trade intensity (from 11% to 30%) and deepening net import reliance signal that the EU's fibre-cement sector is becoming more exposed to international competition. The loss of the Russian export market due to sanctions, while politically necessary, removed a former destination worth over €10 million annually. Meanwhile, the growing dominance of a single export partner (the UK, at 62% of exports) and the emergence of low-cost Asian suppliers create both concentration risks and competitive pressures.

Looking ahead, the data suggests that EU producers will need to compete on quality, customisation, and sustainability credentials rather than cost, as non-EU suppliers—particularly from China and emerging Mediterranean producers—continue to expand their footprint in the European market.