Market evolution: Lead and lead articles (CN 78) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of European Union trade in lead and articles thereof (Combined Nomenclature code 78) with non-EU countries over the period from 2015 to 2025. The sector is characterized by a significant increase in domestic production, a shift in trade partnerships and a notable reduction in the EU's net import reliance. While the overall trade balance worsened in value terms, this masks a fundamental transformation in the market structure, marked by rising export concentration and notable supply shocks affecting key partners.

1. Structural Re-alignment of Trade Flows and Partnerships

Over the decade, the EU's trade position in lead products underwent a significant structural shift. Import values increased while export volumes declined, altering the trade balance. Concurrently, the landscape of major trade partners was reshaped by geopolitical and market forces.

1.1. Diverging Paths: Growing Import Value versus Stagnant Export Volume

The EU's trade in CN 78 products exhibited divergent trends in value and volume. Between 2015 and 2025, the value of imports increased by 28.0% to €567.9 million, while the value of exports decreased by 2.2% to €366.2 million. This resulted in a significant deterioration of the trade balance, which moved from a deficit of €69.4 million to €201.8 million. However, examining volumes provides a different perspective: import volumes grew only modestly by 3.6% to 262.8 thousand tonnes, while export volumes fell sharply by 18.8% to 162.9 thousand tonnes. The rise in import value was therefore largely driven by a 23.5% increase in average import prices, which climbed to €2,161 per tonne by 2025. View the general trade overview.

1.2. Redrawing the Map: Key Partners Gaining and Losing Significance

The list of the EU's primary trade partners for lead products experienced considerable volatility. On the import side, the United Kingdom solidified its position as the largest source, with its share growing from €217.6 million to €282.9 million. In stark contrast, imports from the Russian Federation collapsed by 99.9% from €63.4 million to a negligible €94,047, reflecting the impact of sanctions following 2022. New suppliers emerged, with Lebanon (up 402.6% to €79.9 million) and Serbia (up 1971.3% to €27.9 million) becoming significant sources. For exports, Türkiye remained the EU's premier customer, increasing its share to €95.8 million. Meanwhile, exports to India surged by 300.7% to €70.9 million, whereas shipments to the United States dropped by 70.7%. Explore the top partners by value.

2. A Surge in Domestic Production Driving Specialization and Export Concentration

The most striking dynamic in the EU lead market was the explosive growth of domestic production, which fundamentally altered the bloc's trade orientation and internal market structure.

2.1. Unprecedented Growth in EU Lead Production

EU production of lead products witnessed extraordinary growth, both in volume and value. From 2015 to 2025, production quantity soared by 178.4%, reaching 4.05 billion kilograms. The increase in production value was even more pronounced, rising by 303.2% to €6.29 billion. This surge indicates substantial investment and expansion within the EU's lead processing and manufacturing industries, likely driven by demand from the automotive battery sector (for energy storage) and other industrial applications. View production volumes.

2.2. Specialization and the Concentration of Export Activity

The production boom fostered increased specialization within the EU. In 2025, Bulgaria emerged as the most specialized exporter of lead products, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index of 0.85, followed by Estonia and Sweden. Conversely, countries like Slovenia and Luxembourg showed very low specialization. This internal restructuring is mirrored in the export market's concentration. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export values increased by 44.8% to 1393, indicating a rising concentration of export flows among fewer partners or through fewer member states. Bulgaria was the top exporting member state by value (€117.1 million), followed by Germany (€54.8 million). Analyze the market specialization.

3. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Evident in Price Volatility and Geopolitical Shocks

Despite growing self-sufficiency, the EU's lead trade remained susceptible to significant price and supply shocks, underscoring persistent vulnerabilities in certain parts of the supply chain.

3.1. High-Volatility Partnerships and Notable Price Shocks

Trade with several partners was marked by high volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV). Imports from the Russian Federation (CV of 0.76) and the Republic of Korea (CV of 1.21) were particularly unstable over the period. The volatility analysis also detected several significant price shocks. For imports, a major shock occurred with Serbia in 2017 (abnormality score of 88.9), and a large price shift was observed with Russia in 2023 (a 350.3% price increase). On the export side, a price shock was detected for shipments to India in 2022. These events highlight the price sensitivity of trade flows with specific, sometimes politically sensitive, partners. Examine trade volatility.

3.2. The Collapse of Russian Supply and its Market Impact

The most profound supply shock was the near-total cessation of imports from the Russian Federation. From a value of €63.4 million in 2015, imports fell to a mere €94,047 by 2025, a reduction of 99.9%. This was a direct result of the EU's sanctions regime following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This shock forced a rapid reconfiguration of the EU's lead supply chains, likely contributing to the increased sourcing from Lebanon, Serbia, and other nations. It also demonstrated the EU's exposure to geopolitical risk in this commodity sector. The corresponding shock data from Russia for 2023, with a high abnormality score, may reflect final contract settlements or niche flows before the full impact of sanctions. See the detected supply shocks.

Conclusion

The EU market for lead and articles thereof (CN 78) between 2015 and 2025 was transformed by a domestic production surge, which significantly reduced the bloc's net import reliance from 15.9% to 4.2%. This shift towards greater self-sufficiency occurred alongside a reorganization of trade partnerships, driven partly by geopolitical upheavals like the sanctions on Russia. While the EU's trade balance in value terms worsened due to price inflation, the underlying structural change points to a more resilient, albeit more concentrated, domestic industry. However, persistent volatility with certain partners and the dramatic loss of a major supply source serve as reminders of ongoing vulnerabilities in global supply chains. The growth in export specialization, particularly from newer members like Bulgaria, signals a changing internal dynamic within the EU's lead industry.