Market evolution: Aircraft and spacecraft (CN 8802) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in powered aircraft, helicopters, and spacecraft (Combined Nomenclature code 8802) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers a wide range of high-value manufactured goods — from light helicopters and small aeroplanes to large commercial jets over 15 tonnes, as well as spacecraft, satellites, and launch vehicles. The scope of the product code bundles several subcategories, each with distinct trade characteristics.
Over the eleven-year window, the EU's external trade in this sector was characterised by a persistent and substantial trade surplus, a post-pandemic recovery in export volumes, and a dramatic rise in import values driven almost entirely by unit-price increases rather than volume growth. Three main dynamics emerge from the data: the resilience and restructuring of the EU's export base, a sharp surge in imports — particularly from the United States — that has compressed the trade surplus, and the growing strategic importance of the aerospace sector for a small number of EU member states.
1. Export resilience and the dominance of large-body aircraft
The EU maintained a large but narrowing trade surplus
Throughout the period, the EU remained a net exporter of CN 8802 products. The trade balance stood at €40.5 billion in 2015, contracted to a trough of approximately €20.0 billion around 2020–2021, and recovered to €28.3 billion by 2025 — still 30% below the 2015 level. This narrowing reflects the simultaneous stagnation of export volumes and the near-doubling of import values.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2020 (trough/recovery) | 2025 | Change 2015→2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports (value, € bn) | 54.1 | 32.6 | 54.5 | +0.6% |
| Exports (quantity, t) | 56,919 | 36,035 | 49,890 | −12.3% |
| Exports (price, €/t) | 950,127 | 832,072 | 1,002,597 | +5.5% |
| Imports (value, € bn) | 13.6 | 12.6 | 26.1 | +92.1% |
| Imports (quantity, t) | 25,677 | 16,359 | 26,285 | +2.4% |
| Imports (price, €/t) | 529,957 | 342,205 | 839,862 | +58.5% |
| Trade balance (€ bn) | 40.5 | 20.0 | 28.3 | −30.1% |
Source: General Overview
Large-body jets dominate the export basket
The subcategory "Aeroplanes of unladen weight > 15,000 kg" (CN 880240), which includes wide-body and narrow-body commercial aircraft, accounts for the overwhelming share of EU exports — consistently over 85% by value. In 2025, exports of CN 880240 were worth €47.9 billion, representing 88% of total CN 8802 exports. Export volumes in this segment recovered from a pandemic low of 31,836 tonnes (2020) to 38,417 tonnes (2025), still below the pre-crisis peak of 56,699 tonnes (2016).
The product segment breakdown reveals that mid-size aircraft (CN 880230, 2,000–15,000 kg) contributed €2.5 billion in exports in 2025, while helicopters over 2,000 kg (CN 880212) contributed €1.6 billion. Exports of spacecraft and launch vehicles (CN 880260) were volatile but reached €1.7 billion in 2025, reflecting growing demand for satellite constellation deployment.
France and Germany anchored the EU's export specialisation
The EU's export capacity was overwhelmingly concentrated in two member states. In 2025, France exported €26.9 billion and Germany €17.3 billion, together accounting for over 81% of EU exports. France's Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) stood at 0.54 and Germany's at 0.47, confirming strong specialisation in this sector. Poland emerged as a notable new exporter (exports rising from €303 million in 2015 to €1.1 billion in 2025, +251.7%), likely reflecting the integration of Polish aerospace suppliers into Airbus and other European supply chains.
| Top EU exporters | 2015 (€ bn) | 2025 (€ bn) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 26.6 | 26.9 | +1.2% |
| Germany | 19.7 | 17.3 | −12.1% |
| Ireland | 3.1 | 4.4 | +43.2% |
| Spain | 1.7 | 1.2 | −27.8% |
| Italy | 1.5 | 0.2 | −83.1% |
| Poland | 0.3 | 1.1 | +251.7% |
Source: Top reporters by value (exports)
2. Import surge: the US drives a near-doupling of inbound values
Import values nearly doubled while volumes barely changed
The most striking feature of the import side is the divergence between value and volume. Between 2015 and 2025, EU import values rose from €13.6 billion to €26.1 billion (+92.1%), while import tonnage grew only marginally from 25,677 tonnes to 26,285 tonnes (+2.4%). The implied unit price nearly doubled — from €529,957/t to €839,862/t (+58.5%). This pattern suggests that the EU has been importing higher-value, more expensive aircraft rather than simply more tonnage, consistent with demand for premium wide-body jets and defence platforms.
The United States dominates EU imports and accounts for most of the growth
The United States supplied €18.7 billion of CN 8802 products to the EU in 2025, up from €10.5 billion in 2015 (+78%). This single partner accounted for 71% of all EU imports by value. The growth was driven almost entirely by rising unit prices rather than volumes, reflecting deliveries of large commercial aircraft (Boeing) and military platforms.
Other import sources grew even faster from lower bases:
| Top import partners | 2015 (€ bn) | 2025 (€ bn) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 10.5 | 18.7 | +78.0% |
| China | 0.1 | 1.1 | +809.4% |
| Canada | 0.8 | 2.4 | +190.8% |
| Brazil | 0.6 | 0.8 | +26.7% |
| United Kingdom | 0.3 | 0.5 | +52.4% |
Source: Top partners by value (imports)
The surge in imports from China (+809%) and Canada (+191%) is noteworthy. Canadian imports likely reflect Bombardier and subsequent Airbus A220 programme activity, while Chinese imports — reaching €1.1 billion — may be linked to satellite and spacecraft components as well as helicopter deliveries.
Large-body aircraft also dominate the import side
The segment breakdown shows that CN 880240 (aircraft > 15,000 kg) was by far the largest import category, valued at €22.1 billion in 2025 out of €26.1 billion total. Imports of mid-size aircraft (CN 880230) also grew strongly — from €1.1 billion in 2015 to €3.3 billion in 2025 — with unit prices (per supplementary unit) rising from €10.4 million to €11.5 million, suggesting a shift toward larger or more expensive models within this weight band.
Ireland was the largest single EU importer (€4.1 billion in 2025), followed by Germany (€4.7 billion), reflecting the role of aircraft leasing companies headquartered in Dublin and German airline fleet renewals.
3. Shocks, volatility, and the growing strategic profile of aerospace
Export prices exhibited significant volatility across key partners
The volatility analysis reveals that several export relationships experienced large price swings. The coefficient of variation (CV) of export values exceeded 0.4 for most major partners, with the United Arab Emirates (CV 0.79) and the United States (CV 0.41) showing the most pronounced fluctuations. On the import side, Canada (CV 2.12), China (CV 1.02), and Australia (CV 1.94) displayed very high volatility, consistent with lumpy, order-driven trade flows typical of large aircraft.
Detectable price shocks centred on 2022–2023
The shock detection identified three notable events:
- Türkiye (exports, 2022): An abnormality score of 212 and a +20.3% price shift, with a 6.1% value share. This coincides with Türkiye's accelerated defence procurement and the EU's delivery of military aircraft and helicopters.
- United Kingdom (exports, 2023): An abnormality of 107 and a +42.8% price shift. Post-Brexit supply-chain reconfiguration and defence cooperation may explain this spike.
- United States (exports, 2022): An abnormality of 19.7 and an +82.0% price shift, reflecting a major swing in the mix of exported aircraft types.
These shocks are consistent with the broader pattern of defence-related procurement cycles and the post-pandemic recovery in commercial aviation demand.
The EU remains a strong net exporter with rising export propensity
The net import reliance remained negative throughout the period (−15.4% in 2015, −18.3% in 2025), confirming that the EU consistently exported more than it imported. The export propensity — exports as a share of EU production — surged from 13.4% to 226.7%, indicating that the sector became dramatically more export-oriented. Trade intensity similarly rose from 13.5% to 169.0%.
These figures point to a sector that is deeply integrated into global supply chains and highly dependent on international demand — a structural feature that creates both opportunity and vulnerability. The concentration of EU imports (HHI of 5,487 in 2025) remained moderately high and concentrated on the US, while export concentration was much lower (HHI of 781), reflecting a diversified customer base across the US, China, the UK, India, the UAE, and Türkiye.
Conclusion
Over 2015–2025, the EU's trade in aircraft and spacecraft (CN 8802) exhibited three defining characteristics: a resilient but volume-constrained export base centred on France and Germany; a near-doubling of import values driven overwhelmingly by the United States and by rising unit prices rather than volumes; and increasing strategic exposure as trade intensity and export propensity reached very high levels. The pandemic caused a sharp but temporary contraction in both exports and imports around 2020, followed by a recovery that restored export values to 2015 levels by 2025 while leaving the trade surplus 30% narrower. The concentration of imports on a single partner (the US at 71% of import value) represents a notable structural dependency, even as the EU's export markets remain diversified. Looking ahead, the sector's deep integration into global aerospace supply chains — combined with defence procurement cycles and the emerging demand for spacecraft and satellite launches — will continue to shape its trade dynamics.