Market evolution: Large aircraft (CN 880240) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union (EU) is a major global player in the large civil aircraft market, home to key producers and serving as both a significant exporter and importer of aircraft exceeding 15,000 kg in unladen weight (CN 880240). This report analyzes EU trade flows with non-EU countries over the 2015-2025 period, using annual data to describe market dynamics, interpret key trends, and identify volatility. The analysis reveals a market characterized by the EU's enduring but evolving export strength, a substantial growth in import value, and notable price volatility linked to high-value transactions and geopolitical or economic shocks. For a general overview of the trade data, see the General Overview.

The EU's Enduring Export Leadership Amidst Volume Decline

Despite a decrease in the physical quantity of aircraft exported, the EU has maintained and even grown the total value of its exports, underscoring a shift towards higher-value aircraft and sustained global demand.

Export value growth contrasts with falling volume

The EU's export value for large aircraft increased by 1.8% from 2015 to 2025, rising from €47.0 billion to €47.9 billion. However, the net mass exported fell by 25.5% over the same period, from 51,594 tonnes to 38,417 tonnes. This divergence indicates that the average value per unit weight of exported aircraft has risen significantly, by 20.4%, suggesting a trend towards more expensive, likely newer-generation or more advanced models. The year 2025 saw the highest average price at €1.096 million per tonne, a peak in the observed period.

France and Germany remain the core exporters, but Ireland shows strong growth

The export market is highly concentrated, with France and Germany consistently dominating EU exports. In 2025, France exported aircraft worth €24.2 billion and Germany €15.6 billion. While France's exports grew by 6.0% over the decade, Germany's saw a decline of 18.4%. A notable dynamic is the sharp growth from Ireland, which increased its export value from €3.1 billion in 2015 to €5.8 billion in 2025 (an 86.4% rise), solidifying its position as the EU's third-largest exporter. Poland and Sweden also registered remarkable growth, albeit from a lower base.

Diversification of key export partners

The top partners for EU exports show evolving demand. The United States remained the largest single destination, though its share in EU export value decreased from €8.4 billion to €7.2 billion (-14.0%). Conversely, exports to India surged by 419.9% to become the fifth-largest market, worth €4.1 billion in 2025. Exports to China, while still substantial at €6.8 billion, declined by 9.4% from its 2015 value. The United Kingdom, a significant partner, saw stable growth of 16.9%.

A Structural Shift: Rising Import Value and Changing Suppliers

While the EU is a net exporter, its import bill for large aircraft has grown substantially, driven primarily by increased purchases from the United States and Canada, highlighting deep transatlantic supply chain integration.

Import value growth outpaces volume, led by the United States

EU import value for large aircraft grew by 82.6% from €12.1 billion in 2015 to €22.1 billion in 2025. This growth occurred despite relatively stable import volumes (1.7% increase in tonnes). Consequently, the average price per tonne of imports rose by 9.1%, indicating the EU is importing more expensive aircraft. This trend is heavily influenced by the United States, which saw its exports to the EU increase by 60.5% to €15.6 billion in 2025, accounting for a major share of the total import bill.

Canada emerges as a key import source

The most striking growth in EU imports came from Canada, which saw its export value to the EU increase by 389.8%, from €438 million in 2015 to €2.1 billion in 2025. This significant rise reflects the strong market position of Canadian aerospace manufacturers in specific segments of the large aircraft market. Brazil also maintained a consistent presence, with imports valued at €703 million in 2025.

Shifting import concentration and internal EU dynamics

The concentration of imports by value (HHI) decreased by 23.9%, indicating a slight diversification of suppliers. Within the EU, Ireland is by far the largest importer, with its intake growing by 90.6% to €8.7 billion, likely related to its large aircraft leasing industry. Germany and France are also major importers, while countries like Sweden and Poland showed the highest growth rates, reflecting expanding domestic airline fleets or leasing activities.

Market Volatility and the Impact of Price Shocks

The large aircraft market exhibits inherent volatility due to the high unit value and long lead times of orders. This is amplified by occasional, extreme price shocks in bilateral trade flows.

Bilateral trade shows high volatility coefficients

The volatility of bilateral flows, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), is generally high. For imports, flows from Canada and Singapore are particularly volatile (CV > 1.0). For exports, partnerships with the United Arab Emirates and Singapore show the highest volatility. This underscores that trade in large aircraft is often concentrated in a few high-value transactions per year, making annual figures highly sensitive to the timing of individual deliveries.

Notable price shocks in key partnerships

The data detects significant price shock events, which are abnormal price increases. The most pronounced was an 83.7% price shift in EU exports to the United States in 2022. Similarly, a 118.6% price shift occurred in exports to Taiwan in 2019, and a 45.1% shift to Brazil in 2021. These shocks likely correspond to the delivery of wide-body aircraft or large orders and significantly influence the annual trade statistics for those routes.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU solidified its position as a high-value net exporter of large aircraft, with a trade surplus of €25.8 billion in 2025. The market is undergoing a subtle transformation: EU exports are generating more value from fewer physical units, pointing to a focus on premium products. Simultaneously, the EU's import needs have surged in value, heavily reliant on the transatlantic partnership with the United States and increasingly on Canada. Market dynamics are heavily influenced by a small number of high-value transactions, leading to observable volatility and price shocks. Looking ahead, the sustainability of the EU's export growth will depend on competition in key growth markets like India, while the import dependency highlights the deeply integrated, yet concentrated, nature of the global aerospace supply chain.