Market evolution: Rail locomotives and tenders (CN 8602) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the European Union's external trade in products classified under Combined Nomenclature code 8602 — namely, rail locomotives other than those powered from an external source of electricity or by accumulators, and locomotive tenders. The category primarily covers diesel-electric locomotives (subheading 860210) and other non-electric/non-battery locomotives (subheading 860290). Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as a strong net exporter, but the underlying dynamics reveal significant shifts in trade geography, unit values, and market concentration. Three major themes emerge: a deepening structural surplus, a dramatic reorientation of partner countries, and a sustained rise in unit values pointing to premiumisation of traded products.
1. A Structural Surplus That Deepened Over the Decade
1.1 The EU consistently exported far more than it imported
Throughout the entire period, the EU maintained a positive trade balance in CN 8602, and that balance widened. In 2015 the trade surplus stood at €140.4 million; by 2025 it had grown to €164.1 million, a rise of 16.9%. The surplus peaked at €216.4 million at its maximum during the period, before settling at a still-elevated level.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports (value, EUR) | 156,460,375 | 174,997,250 | +11.8% |
| Imports (value, EUR) | 16,081,099 | 10,851,608 | −32.5% |
| Trade balance (EUR) | 140,379,276 | 164,145,643 | +16.9% |
1.2 Net import reliance deepened in favour of exports
The EU's net import reliance in CN 8602 moved from −13.6% in 2015 to −29.8% in 2025. Negative values indicate that the EU is a net exporter, and the growing magnitude confirms that the bloc became structurally more dependent on export markets to absorb its production. Over the full period the indicator reached as low as −332.1%, reflecting individual years of exceptionally large export surpluses (likely driven by one-off large deliveries).
1.3 Production grew strongly in value even as unit counts declined
PRODCOM data for EU production of diesel-electric locomotives (30.20.12.00) and other locomotives/tenders (30.20.13.00) shows that total production value rose from €467.3 million in 2015 to €996.4 million in 2025 (+113.2%), while the number of units produced fell from 461 to 397 (−13.9%). This implies that the average value per locomotive produced roughly doubled, from about €1.0 million to about €2.5 million — a clear sign of the industry moving toward more complex, higher-value products.
2. Geographic Reorientation: New Partners Replace Traditional Ones
2.1 Export destinations shifted markedly toward Türkiye, Serbia, and the United Kingdom
The composition of the EU's export markets underwent a significant transformation between 2015 and 2025. Three partners stand out for their rapid growth:
| Partner | Exports 2015 (EUR) | Exports 2025 (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 1,265,834 | 34,157,321 | +2,598% |
| Serbia | 1,323,930 | 13,743,098 | +938% |
| United Kingdom | 15,410,593 | 61,493,442 | +299% |
| Switzerland | 29,391,085 | 10,256,818 | −65% |
| United States | 461,397 | 44,770 | −90% |
| Ukraine | 770,898 | 195,000 | −75% |
The United Kingdom became the EU's single largest export market for non-electric locomotives by 2025 (€61.5 million), likely reflecting post-Brexit procurement dynamics and fleet renewal needs. Türkiye's extraordinary growth (to €34.2 million) and Serbia's rise (to €13.7 million) are consistent with railway infrastructure modernisation programmes in those countries, potentially supported by EU pre-accession or connectivity funding. Meanwhile, Switzerland — once the largest single destination — saw its share collapse, and exports to the United States nearly vanished after what appears to have been a one-off very large delivery (the maximum annual value reached €132.2 million).
2.2 Import sources also shifted, with Norway and Serbia emerging as key suppliers
On the import side, the EU's sourcing geography changed considerably:
| Partner | Imports 2015 (EUR) | Imports 2025 (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 136,578 | 4,044,823 | +2,862% |
| Serbia | 56,650 | 2,136,578 | +3,672% |
| Russian Federation | 178,177 | 515,925 | +190% |
| Ukraine | 2,558,213 | 205,496 | −92% |
| Switzerland | 3,254,192 | 791,881 | −76% |
| United Kingdom | 487,899 | 341,723 | −30% |
Norway emerged as the largest single import source by 2025 (€4.0 million), a dramatic rise from near-zero levels in 2015. Serbia also became a significant supplier (€2.1 million), illustrating its dual role as both a growing market for EU exports and a niche supplier. Ukraine's imports fell sharply (−92%), almost certainly linked to the disruption of the ongoing conflict. Switzerland's decline as an import source mirrors its decline as an export destination, suggesting a bilateral thinning of trade in this product category.
2.3 Within the EU, Spain consolidated its dominance as the leading exporter
Among EU Member States, Spain was by far the largest exporter of CN 8602 products in 2025 (€118.5 million), followed by Germany (€22.5 million), Italy (€11.2 million), and Czechia (€9.0 million). Spain's Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.76 and RCA of 7.17 confirm it is the most specialised EU exporter in this category. Germany, while still the second-largest exporter, saw its export value halve from €45.0 million in 2015 to €22.5 million in 2025 (−50.0%).
| EU Member State | Exports 2025 (EUR) | RSCA (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 118,482,425 | 0.755 |
| Germany | 22,506,283 | 0.254 |
| Italy | 11,241,952 | −0.931 |
| Czechia | 8,962,449 | 0.451 |
3. Fewer Units, Higher Prices: The Premiumisation of EU Locomotive Trade
3.1 Export unit values rose dramatically while volumes fell
The most striking feature of the EU's export profile in CN 8602 is the divergence between volume and price. Export quantity declined from 7,560 tonnes in 2015 to 5,160 tonnes in 2025 (−31.7%), while export value per tonne rose from €20,697 to €33,914 (+63.9%). This pattern is consistent with a shift toward larger, more technologically advanced, and more customised locomotives — products that command higher prices per unit of weight.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export quantity (tonnes) | 7,560 | 5,160 | −31.7% |
| Export value (EUR) | 156,460,375 | 174,997,250 | +11.8% |
| Export unit value (EUR/t) | 20,697 | 33,914 | +63.9% |
| Import unit value (EUR/t) | 6,345 | 6,181 | −2.6% |
3.2 Diesel-electric locomotives dominate exports and command premium prices
The product segment breakdown reveals that diesel-electric locomotives (CN 860210) account for the vast majority of EU exports. In 2025, diesel-electric locomotives represented €152.4 million of the €175.0 million total (87.1%). Their unit export value rose to €36,748 per tonne in 2025, compared with €24,228 in 2015. The "other locomotives" category (CN 860290) also saw rising unit values (from €13,640/t to €22,316/t), but its total export value declined from €34.4 million to €22.6 million.
| Segment | Export value 2015 (EUR) | Export value 2025 (EUR) | Unit value 2015 (EUR/t) | Unit value 2025 (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 860210 — Diesel-electric | 122,068,338 | 152,387,295 | 24,228 | 36,748 |
| 860290 — Other | 34,392,036 | 22,609,955 | 13,640 | 22,316 |
3.3 Import unit values remained flat, widening the price gap with exports
Import prices stayed essentially stable over the period (€6,345/t in 2015 vs. €6,181/t in 2025, a decline of 2.6%). This contrasts sharply with the +63.9% rise in export unit values and means the EU's export-to-import price ratio widened significantly. The EU is increasingly exporting premium locomotives while importing more basic or standardised units — a classic pattern of intra-industry specialisation at the quality frontier.
3.4 Export concentration increased, pointing to fewer but larger deals
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value rose from 1,204 to 2,015 (+67.4%), indicating that EU exports became more concentrated among fewer partner countries. In contrast, import HHI fell from 3,174 to 2,355 (−25.8%), meaning import sourcing became more diversified. Both export and import concentration remained moderate overall, but the opposing trends suggest that the EU's export relationships deepened with select strategic partners while it broadened its import base.
| Concentration (HHI) | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports (value) | 1,204 | 2,015 | +67.4% |
| Imports (value) | 3,174 | 2,355 | −25.8% |
Conclusion
Over 2015–2025, the EU's trade in non-electric rail locomotives (CN 8602) tells a story of consolidation and specialisation. The EU strengthened its position as a net exporter, with its trade surplus widening to €164 million by 2025. However, this headline stability masks considerable structural change. The geographic footprint of exports shifted dramatically: traditional partners like Switzerland and the United States receded, while Türkiye, Serbia, and especially the United Kingdom became the dominant destinations. On the supply side, Norway and Serbia emerged as new import sources, while Ukraine's role collapsed.
Perhaps the most significant underlying trend is the sustained rise in export unit values (+63.9% over the period), which occurred alongside a decline in traded volumes (−31.7% by weight). Combined with the doubling of average production value per unit, this points to a clear premiumisation dynamic: the EU is producing and exporting fewer but substantially more expensive non-electric locomotives. Spain has emerged as the dominant exporter within the EU, accounting for over two-thirds of the bloc's exports by value in 2025, while Germany's share has halved.
The CN 8602 category also carries a strategic note: as global rail networks increasingly electrify, the non-electric locomotive segment is a shrinking niche. The EU's ability to maintain — and grow — its export surplus in this category likely reflects the delivery of specialised diesel-electric units to markets undergoing railway modernisation but not yet fully electrified. Long-term, the structural trend toward electrification (captured under CN 8601) may gradually reduce the relevance of this product category, but for the period under review, the EU's locomotive industry remained highly competitive and increasingly upmarket.