Market evolution: Refractory bricks and shapes (CN 6902) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in refractory bricks, blocks, tiles and similar refractory ceramic constructional goods (Combined Nomenclature code 6902) over the period 2015–2025. Refractory ceramics are essential inputs for high-temperature industrial processes—steelmaking, cement, glass, petrochemicals—and their trade patterns therefore serve as a barometer for broader European industrial health and competitiveness. The data reveal a market undergoing deep structural transformation: one where the EU has remained a strong net exporter but has seen volumes fall sharply, prices surge, trade partners shift significantly under geopolitical pressure, and the domestic production base contract in physical terms. The following sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

Source: Overview dashboard

1. The Great Volume–Price Divergence

The most striking feature of the decade is a pronounced decoupling between traded volumes and traded values. Physical quantities moved in one direction while unit values moved decisively in the other, reshaping the economics of the refractory trade for all participants.

1.1 Export volumes collapsed while export values barely moved

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 6902 fell from 677,794 tonnes to 428,881 tonnes—a decline of 36.7%. Yet over the same period, export value edged up by 3.7%, from €786.7 million to €815.6 million. The mechanism behind this resilience is an extraordinary rise in export unit values: average export prices climbed from €1,161/t to €1,902/t, an increase of 63.9%. In other words, European exporters shipped far less material but earned roughly the same revenue, reflecting a decisive shift towards higher-value-added products and/or a sharp repricing driven by input cost inflation (energy, raw materials).

Source: Overview dashboard

1.2 Import volumes grew modestly while import values surged

On the import side, quantities rose by 14.0%, from 141,420 tonnes to 161,185 tonnes. However, import values grew by 47.8%, from €152.8 million to €225.9 million, driven by a 29.7% increase in import unit values (from €1,081/t to €1,401/t). The import side thus shows a similar, if less dramatic, volume–price divergence. The surge in import values is partly explained by the global energy crisis of 2021–2022, which drove up the cost of refractory production worldwide, and partly by structural shifts in sourcing patterns.

Source: Overview dashboard

1.3 EU production confirms the structural volume decline

Production data from PRODCOM registers an even steeper decline in domestic output volumes: EU production fell by 50.6%, from 2,405,121 tonnes in 2015 to 1,188,393 tonnes in 2025. Meanwhile, production value rose by 10.1%, from €1.62 billion to €1.78 billion. This confirms that the volume contraction is not merely a trade-composition effect but reflects a genuine downsizing of the European refractory production base in physical terms—a trend likely linked to the contraction of heavy industry in Europe, the closure or consolidation of production lines, and the shift towards longer-life, higher-performance refractory products that command higher prices per tonne but require lower tonnage.

Source: Production volumes

1.4 The EU trade balance remains solidly positive but has eroded

The EU has maintained a substantial trade surplus in refractory products throughout the period. The balance started at €633.8 million in 2015, peaked at €729.3 million, and stood at €589.7 million in 2025—a decline of 7.0%. While the surplus remains large, the erosion is driven by faster growth in import values (+47.8%) than export values (+3.7%). The net import reliance measure (which is negative when the EU is a net exporter) moved from −49.3% to −60.0%, actually indicating a strengthening of net exporter status in proportional terms—because domestic production shrank even faster than the trade balance narrowed.

2. Geopolitical Realignment of Trade Partners

The 2015–2025 period witnessed a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's refractory trade geography, driven by Brexit, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the broader reorientation of European supply chains.

2.1 China dominates imports; Russia and Ukraine collapse

China has been and remains the EU's single largest import source for CN 6902, with import values rising from €84.6 million in 2015 to €116.2 million in 2025 (+37.4%). China's share is substantial: in 2022—the peak year for import values across the board at €323.4 million—Chinese imports alone accounted for €165.0 million, or over half of all EU imports.

The most dramatic changes, however, involve Russia and Ukraine:

• Russian Federation: EU imports from Russia fell by 98.0%, from €2.4 million to just €48,430. Exports to Russia, which had peaked at €77.5 million, fell by 62.3% to €12.6 million. This collapse is directly attributable to EU sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

• Ukraine: EU imports from Ukraine fell by 90.4%, from €2.8 million to €268,392. Ukraine's own refractory industry—historically significant—has been devastated by the conflict.

Source: Partners

2.2 India and Türkiye fill part of the gap

With Russia and Ukraine effectively exiting the EU's import supply map, India and Türkiye have emerged as significant alternative suppliers. Indian imports surged by 168.5% (from €13.1 million to €35.0 million) and Turkish imports by 94.4% (from €7.6 million to €14.8 million). India is now the EU's second-largest import source by value, having overtaken both the United Kingdom and the United States. This shift reflects both the competitive pricing of Indian and Turkish refractory producers and a deliberate diversification of EU supply chains away from geopolitically risky origins.

2.3 Export destinations show a North American pivot

On the export side, the United States has become the EU's single largest export destination, with values more than doubling from €66.0 million to €136.3 million (+106.4%). Canada also grew (+24.2%). Meanwhile, exports to India declined by 17.3% and exports to Algeria fell by 37.3%. The strengthening of the transatlantic refractory trade likely reflects the close integration of EU and US industrial supply chains, particularly in steel and automotive sectors, as well as the relatively higher quality positioning of European refractory products in the North American market.

Source: Partners

2.4 Import concentration declined; export concentration rose

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 3,332 to 3,087 (−7.4%), indicating a modest diversification of import sources—even as China's dominance persisted, the growth of India, Türkiye, and the UK helped spread the import base. For exports, the HHI rose from 343 to 527 (+53.9%), reflecting the growing concentration of EU exports towards the United States. This represents a structural risk: should US demand soften or trade policy shift, EU exporters would be more exposed than a decade ago.

2.5 Severe supply shocks traced to China in 2022

The shock detection analysis identifies the most significant event in the dataset as a price shock in EU imports from China in 2022: an abnormality score of 23.9 with a price shift of +46.8% year-on-year. Given that China accounted for 62.4% of EU import value that year, this shock had an outsized impact on the overall market. It coincides with the global energy crisis and post-COVID supply chain disruptions, which drove up the cost of Chinese refractory production (coal, alumina, magnesia). A smaller but notable export-side shock was detected in shipments to Argentina in 2021 (+63.1% price shift) and to the United Arab Emirates in 2023 (+140.2% price shift), though these affected much smaller trade volumes.

2.6 Ukraine and Russia remain among the most volatile partners

The volatility analysis (coefficient of variation) confirms the extreme instability of trade with conflict-affected origins. Ukraine's import CV stands at 0.68 and Russia's at 0.58, far above the levels of stable partners like China (0.10) or Türkiye (0.15). On the export side, Algeria (0.62) and the United Arab Emirates (0.77) show the highest volatility, reflecting project-driven, lumpy demand patterns in these markets.

3. Structural Shifts in the EU Refractory Industry

Beyond the headline trade figures, the data reveal deeper structural changes in the composition and competitiveness of the EU refractory sector, visible through product breakdowns, member-state specialisation, and trade-intensity metrics.

3.1 Product mix: alumina-silica refractories dominate both imports and exports

The product segment breakdown shows that CN 690220 (alumina/silica refractories, >50% Al₂O₃ or SiO₂) is the largest sub-segment by both import and export value. In 2025, it accounted for €120.3 million in imports and €466.1 million in exports—roughly 53% of imports and 57% of exports by value. CN 690210 (magnesia/calcia/chromia refractories) is the second-largest segment at €67.3 million in imports and €265.6 million in exports. The "other" category (CN 690290) is the smallest and has contracted most sharply.

Source: Product segment breakdown

3.2 All sub-segments show volume contraction and price inflation

Across every sub-product, the same volume-price divergence is visible:

• 690220: Export quantity fell from 301,905 t to 235,382 t (−22.0%), while export price rose from €1,188/t to €1,980/t (+66.6%). Import quantity grew slightly from 66,604 t to 70,766 t (+6.2%), while import price rose from €1,150/t to €1,700/t (+47.8%).

• 690210: Export quantity fell from 292,908 t to 162,067 t (−44.7%), while export price rose from €1,080/t to €1,639/t (+51.7%). Import quantity grew from 44,525 t to 73,230 t (+64.5%), while import price rose from €764/t to €919/t (+20.3%).

• 690290: Export quantity fell from 82,981 t to 31,433 t (−62.1%), while export price rose from €1,344/t to €2,669/t (+98.6%). Import quantity collapsed from 30,290 t to 17,189 t (−43.2%), while import price surged from €1,393/t to €2,228/t (+59.9%).

The sharpest relative export volume decline and the highest price inflation occurred in the 690290 "other" category, suggesting that this catch-all segment has been particularly affected by product upgrading or market exit.

3.3 Austria and Germany anchor the EU's export specialisation

The specialisation analysis (RSCA index) for 2025 identifies Austria as the most specialised EU member state in refractory exports, with an RSCA of 0.55 and an RCA of 3.46—meaning Austria's refractory exports are more than three times more concentrated than the EU average. Czechia (RSCA 0.32), Spain (0.27), Slovakia (0.23), and France (0.21) follow. At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland (RSCA −1.00), Latvia (−0.99), Finland (−0.96), Denmark (−0.96), and Estonia (−0.95) have virtually no specialisation in this product, as expected for smaller or services-oriented economies.

Source: Specialisation

3.4 Member-state export performance diverged significantly

Among the top EU exporting countries, Germany remained the largest exporter throughout the period, growing from €254.3 million to €275.6 million (+8.4%). Spain (+67.2%) and France (+71.2%) showed the strongest growth, while Austria (−36.3%) and Italy (−9.1%) contracted. The Netherlands grew by 63.3%. On the import side, Belgium recorded the most explosive growth at +179.9% (from €8.9 million to €24.9 million), while all major EU importers saw double-digit or triple-digit increases.

Source: Reporters

3.5 Trade intensity and export propensity rose markedly

The trade intensity of the EU refractory sector (the share of total output that is traded externally) rose from 43.9% to 57.8% (+31.8%). Similarly, export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 40.0% to 51.8% (+29.6%). These increases are driven by the decline in domestic production volumes: as the EU produces less in physical terms, external trade becomes a larger share of the remaining activity. While this may reflect greater integration into global value chains, it also signals growing exposure to international market conditions and supply disruptions.

Conclusion

The EU refractory bricks and shapes market (CN 6902) over 2015–2025 tells a story of profound transformation. The European industry has become leaner in volume terms—halving its physical production output and cutting export shipments by over a third—while simultaneously moving up the value curve, with prices per tonne rising by 50–100% depending on the segment. The EU remains a net exporter with a healthy trade surplus, but that surplus has narrowed as import growth (+47.8% in value) has outpaced export growth (+3.7%).

Geopolitical events have reshaped the trade map. The collapse of trade with Russia and Ukraine has been near-total, and while India and Türkiye have partially filled the gap on the import side, China's dominance as a supplier has only deepened. On the export side, the United States has become the EU's paramount partner, creating a concentration risk that did not exist to the same degree a decade ago. The 2022 price shock from China—driven by the global energy crisis—exposed the vulnerability of this import dependence.

Looking ahead, the data suggest that the EU refractory sector faces a balancing act: maintaining its competitive edge in high-value, specialised products while managing supply chain risks in an increasingly fragmented global trading environment. The strong specialisation of countries like Austria, Czechia, and Spain provides a foundation, but the declining physical production base and rising trade intensity mean that the sector's fortunes are increasingly tied to forces beyond European control.