Market evolution: Ceramic tableware and kitchenware (CN 6912) — 2015–2025
Introduction
The EU market for ceramic tableware and kitchenware (CN 6912) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The period is characterized by a dramatic shift in trade flows, marked by a surge in imports—particularly from China—which has outpaced the growth of EU exports. This has led to a significant widening of the EU's trade deficit and a sharp increase in its net import reliance. Concurrently, intra-EU production has collapsed, while the bloc's export profile has shifted towards higher-priced, lower-volume shipments to stable Western markets. These dynamics point to a market grappling with increased external dependency and fundamental changes in its internal productive capacity.
The Great Import Surge: Rising Deficits and Chinese Dominance
The most defining trend of the decade has been the relentless expansion of EU imports, fundamentally altering the market's trade balance.
Explosive Growth in Import Values and Volumes
Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports for CN 6912 grew by 90.4%, from €371 million to €707 million. This growth was underpinned by a 71.1% increase in physical quantity, from 164,526 tonnes to 281,505 tonnes. While import prices also rose (11.3% growth), the primary driver was volume expansion. This relentless rise stands in stark contrast to the more modest growth in exports, leading to a ballooning trade deficit. The deficit in value terms widened by 192%, reaching €-393 million by 2025, with its peak in 2022 at €-449 million. This structural shift is further evidenced by the EU's net import reliance, which soared from just over 1% in 2015 to nearly 35% in 2025.
China's Overwhelming and Consolidating Market Share
The import surge is overwhelmingly attributable to China. The value of imports from China grew by 139.8%, from €235 million to €563 million, and now constitutes the vast majority of the EU's total non-EU imports. This concentration is reflected in the import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which increased by 52% from 4,273 to 6,495, indicating a market becoming more dependent on a single supplier. While other traditional partners like Thailand and the UK saw stagnant or declining shares, China's dominance solidified, posing a clear strategic concentration risk.
| Partner | Import Value 2015 (€ million) | Import Value 2025 (€ million) | Share 2025 (%) | Growth 2015-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 234.6 | 562.5 | ~79.6% | +139.8% |
| Thailand | 45.7 | 54.2 | ~7.7% | +18.6% |
| United Kingdom | 34.6 | 32.1 | ~4.5% | -7.1% |
| Türkiye | 18.7 | 18.1 | ~2.6% | -3.4% |
| Total EU Imports | 371.1 | 706.6 | 100% | +90.4% |
A Transformed European Export Profile: Specialisation and Price Premiums
In response to, or alongside, the import wave, the EU's export strategy for ceramic tableware has evolved significantly, focusing on value over volume.
Export Value Growth Decoupled from Volume
EU exports increased in value by 32.7% over the period, reaching €314 million in 2025. However, this masks a 10.4% decline in exported volumes, from 66,478 tonnes to 59,593 tonnes. The entire value increase was achieved through a dramatic 48.0% rise in average export prices (from €3,555/tonne to €5,264/tonne). This indicates a successful pivot towards higher-value, premium, or niche products that can command better prices on international markets, even as physical shipments shrink.
Geographic Reorientation of Export Destinations
The destination of EU exports also shifted markedly. Exports to the United States—the top partner—grew solidly by 26.3% in value. The most dramatic growth occurred with Switzerland (+143.0%), Norway (+96.3%), Canada (+150.4%), and Brazil (+251.5%). Conversely, exports to the Russian Federation collapsed by 79.0%, likely due to geopolitical sanctions following 2022. This suggests a strategic reorientation towards more stable, high-income Western markets and promising emerging economies, away from volatile partners.
| Partner | Export Value 2015 (€ million) | Export Value 2025 (€ million) | Share 2025 (%) | Growth 2015-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 77.9 | 98.4 | ~31.4% | +26.3% |
| United Kingdom | 46.5 | 45.7 | ~14.6% | -1.6% |
| Switzerland | 13.1 | 31.8 | ~10.1% | +143.0% |
| Norway | 11.1 | 21.8 | ~6.9% | +96.3% |
| Total EU Exports | 236.4 | 313.7 | 100% | +32.7% |
The Collapse of EU Production and Rising Market Vulnerability
The external trade shifts are symptomatic of a deeper structural crisis within the EU's domestic production base for this product category.
A Domestic Production Sector in Severe Contraction
According to the Eurostat production data, EU production of CN 6912 has disintegrated. Production quantity plummeted by 68.8%, falling from 616 million kg in 2015 to just 192 million kg in 2025. Production value fell by 41.5%, indicating that while output collapsed, prices for locally produced goods increased—a possible sign of a niche focus or rising costs. This collapse is the primary driver behind the soaring net import reliance.
Specialisation Confirms a Niche, Not Volume, Strategy
Analysis of Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows that only a few EU members retain a clear competitive edge. Portugal is overwhelmingly specialised (RSCA 0.86), followed distantly by Romania (0.48) and Denmark (0.38). The vast majority of member states, including large economies, show negative specialisation scores, confirming that the EU as a whole does not possess a strong comparative advantage in this product category anymore, having ceded volume production to Asian competitors.
Market Vulnerability Intensifies
The confluence of rising imports, concentrated supplier base, and collapsing production has dramatically increased the EU's vulnerability. Key metrics confirm this: Trade intensity (the sum of imports and exports relative to production) more than doubled, from 36% to 75%. This means the EU's market is now far more exposed to international trade shocks. Furthermore, the coefficient of variation for imports from key partners like Vietnam (0.55) and Indonesia (0.31) indicates high volatility in these supply lines, posing additional risks.
Conclusion
The decade from 2015 to 2025 has reshaped the EU's ceramic tableware market into one defined by import dependency, export specialisation, and production decline. The EU has effectively transitioned from a region with a balance of trade to one that is a net importer on a massive scale, reliant on a single dominant supplier in China. Internally, the sector has contracted severely, with remaining production and exports focusing on high-value, niche segments for premium international markets. While this has allowed EU exporters to increase value despite lower volumes, the strategic consequence is a market far more exposed to external supply disruptions and geopolitical shifts. The future challenge for EU policy and industry will be to navigate this dependence while leveraging the remaining high-value specialisation to maintain its position in global ceramic tableware trade.