Market evolution: Platinum group metals (CN 7110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Platinum group metals (PGMs) — platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, osmium and ruthenium — are among the most strategically important commodities traded globally. They are critical inputs for automotive catalytic converters, hydrogen fuel cells, electronics, jewellery and a range of chemical processes. The EU, despite limited mine production on its own territory, plays a central role in the global PGM market as a major refining, recycling and trading hub. This report analyses the evolution of EU extra-EU trade under Combined Nomenclature heading 7110 over the period 2015–2025, a decade that encompassed an extraordinary price supercycle, a global pandemic, geopolitical supply disruptions and a subsequent market correction.

The product scope covers all six PGMs in unwrought, powder and semi-manufactured forms, bundling eight sub-headings from 711011 to 711049. EU domestic production of these metals ranged from 375 tonnes (2015) to 775 tonnes (peak year), valued at €1.73–4.66 billion. This output, combined with the EU's refining and recycling capacity, made it both a massive importer and a massive exporter — a dual role that defines the structural profile of this market.

1. The Rhodium-Palladium Supercycle and the Trajectory of EU Trade Values

Overall trade volumes grew enormously in value terms while physical quantities moved far less

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU import values grew by 69.5%, from €3.03 billion to €5.13 billion, while export values surged by 170.7%, from €1.96 billion to €5.31 billion. Both flows peaked well above their endpoints: imports reached a maximum of €9.56 billion and exports a maximum of €9.90 billion. By contrast, physical quantities were far more stable — import volumes fluctuated between 133.8 and 238.9 tonnes, while export volumes ranged from 97.5 to 715.4 tonnes. This disconnect between value and volume is the hallmark of a price-driven supercycle.

Source: General Overview

Rhodium was the single most explosive component of the supercycle

The sub-product breakdown reveals that rhodium (CN 711031, unwrought/powder) was the primary driver of the value explosion. Import unit prices for rhodium rose from approximately €27 million per tonne in 2015 to a staggering €564 million per tonne in 2021 — a roughly twenty-fold increase — before correcting to €181 million per tonne in 2025. Rhodium import values surged from €121 million (2015) to a peak of €3.36 billion (2021), while export values soared from €120 million to €5.29 billion in the same year.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

This rhodium price spike was driven by tightening emissions regulations (especially China 6 and Euro 6d standards), which increased catalyst loadings per vehicle, combined with extremely concentrated supply — South Africa accounts for over 80% of global rhodium mine output.

Palladium followed a parallel trajectory, while platinum moved counter-cyclically

Palladium unwrought (CN 711021) similarly saw import values climb from €919 million (2015) to €4.12 billion (2021), before easing back to €1.72 billion (2025). Unit prices moved from €17 million/t to €66 million/t at peak. Palladium's surge was fuelled by sustained demand from gasoline catalytic converters and supply disruptions in Russia and South Africa.

Platinum unwrought (CN 711011), however, told a different story. Its import value fell from €1.63 billion (2015) to €722 million (2019) — reflecting the "dieselgate" demand shock — before recovering to €1.31 billion (2025) as substitution effects (platinum-for-palladium in catalysts) and hydrogen economy demand gained traction.

2. Geopolitical Realignments and the Reconfiguration of Trade Partnerships

South Africa consolidated its position as the EU's indispensable PGM supplier

The partner data shows a clear intensification of the EU's import dependence on South Africa. South African imports grew from €880 million (2015) to €2.16 billion (2025), an increase of 145.2%, reflecting both price appreciation and volume resilience. South Africa's share of EU PGM imports expanded as other suppliers faltered.

Source: Partners

Russian supply declined structurally, not just cyclically

Russian PGM imports — predominantly palladium from Nornickel — peaked at €2.10 billion before falling to just €307 million by 2025, a 33.1% decline from even the 2015 baseline of €459 million. While the 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered immediate sanctions-related disruptions, the decline in Russian PGM flows to the EU appears to have preceded and outlasted the initial shock, reflecting both formal trade restrictions and voluntary corporate de-risking. This represents a structural reorientation of EU supply chains away from Russia.

The United Kingdom's role shifted post-Brexit from intra-EU hub to extra-EU partner

The UK appears prominently throughout the dataset as both a major import source (€766M–€1.93B) and export destination (€408M–€2.24B). London's role as a global precious metals trading and vaulting centre explains the high throughput, but the nature of UK–EU PGM trade fundamentally changed after the end of the Brexit transition period on 31 December 2020. Volatility analysis confirms this: the UK exhibited the highest price shock abnormality scores in the dataset — a +628.1% price shift in imports centred on 2020, and a +241.5% shift in exports centred on 2019. These anomalies likely reflect both the reclassification of UK trade from intra-EU to extra-EU and the associated customs reporting adjustments.

EU export destinations diversified towards emerging economies

On the export side, the most striking shift was towards Brazil, Japan and the United States:

Source: Partners

The near-quintupling of exports to Brazil and Japan likely reflects the growing role of these countries in automotive manufacturing and catalyst demand. Meanwhile, exports to China more than halved — a reversal that may be linked to China's own development of domestic refining capacity and the broader deterioration of EU–China trade relations.

Import concentration tightened while export concentration remained moderate

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 2,054 to 2,424 (+18.0%), moving from a moderately concentrated market towards a more concentrated one. This reflects the growing dominance of South Africa and the contraction of Russian supply. Export concentration by value, by contrast, barely changed (HHI from 2,145 to 2,127, −0.8%), suggesting a relatively stable and diversified customer base.

3. The EU's Structural Position: Net Importer, Export Powerhouse, or Both?

The EU trade balance swung dramatically over the decade

The EU's trade balance in PGMs underwent a remarkable transformation:

• 2015: deficit of €1.07 billion
• Worst deficit: €1.74 billion
• Best surplus: €2.06 billion (likely 2021, during the peak of the supercycle)
• 2025: modest surplus of €179 million

This swing was almost entirely driven by rhodium and palladium export values during the supercycle. When rhodium export values hit €5.29 billion in 2021, the EU temporarily became a massive net exporter in value terms despite importing most of its raw PGM feedstock.

Net import reliance shifted from deep exporter status to modest importer

The net import reliance indicator — which factors in domestic production — moved from −92.0% (2015, indicating a strong net exporter position relative to domestic use) to +21.3% (2025, a modest net importer). The extreme low of −445.5% was recorded during the peak supercycle year, when EU exports vastly exceeded imports. By 2025, with supercycle revenues fading and production volumes rising to 533 tonnes, the EU settled into a slight net-importing position.

EU member states show pronounced specialisation patterns

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals a concentrated industrial geography:

Source: Specialisation

Italy and Belgium stand out as the most specialised PGM traders, with high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores, reflecting their roles as precious metals refining and trading hubs (notably through Milan's and Antwerp's established infrastructures). Germany, while not exceptionally specialised relative to its overall export basket, dominates in absolute terms: German imports stood at €2.99 billion and exports at €2.91 billion in 2025, reflecting its large automotive and chemical industries. France, with a negative RSCA of −0.60, is a net importer of PGMs relative to its own export profile.

An anomaly in iridium/osmium/ruthenium exports warrants attention

A notable anomaly appears in the 2024–2025 export data for iridium, osmium and ruthenium unwrought (CN 711041). Export quantities surged from 9.2 tonnes (2023) to 604.7 tonnes (2024) and 238.5 tonnes (2025), while unit prices collapsed from €26.6 million/t to €0.5 million/t and €1.5 million/t respectively. This dramatic volume spike at collapsing unit prices suggests a large-scale flow of lower-value ruthenium (rather than the far more expensive iridium) — possibly related to increased recycling activity, stockpile liquidation, or a reclassification of trade flows. This segment alone contributed substantially to the overall rise in EU export quantities.

Export propensity remained very high, confirming the EU's hub function

The export propensity — exports as a percentage of domestic production — stood at 273.5% in 2015 and remained at 209.7% in 2025. These figures, far exceeding 100%, confirm that the EU exports significantly more PGM than it produces from primary sources, underlining its central role in global PGM refining, recycling and intermediation. Trade intensity similarly remained well above 100% (132.6% in 2025), confirming that PGM trade flows vastly exceed what the EU's own production base alone would generate.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 decade was transformative for the EU's platinum group metals trade. The rhodium-palladium supercycle, peaking in 2021–2022, temporarily turned the EU into a €2 billion net exporter despite its reliance on imported raw materials, as soaring commodity prices amplified the value of its refining and recycling output. The subsequent price correction brought trade values closer to — but still well above — their 2015 baselines.

Geopolitically, the period witnessed a fundamental restructuring of supply relationships: Russian PGM flows to the EU collapsed, South Africa's dominance deepened, and the UK transitioned from an intra-EU to an extra-EU trading partner. On the demand side, the EU diversified its export footprint, with striking growth in flows to Brazil, Japan and the United States, while exports to China contracted.

Structurally, the EU remains a critical node in the global PGM value chain — not as a primary mining centre, but as a refining, recycling and trading superhub. Its export propensity of over 200% of domestic production underscores this intermediating role. Going forward, the growing demand for platinum in hydrogen technologies, the gradual substitution of palladium for platinum in gasoline catalysts, and the EU's Critical Raw Materials ambitions are likely to sustain the strategic importance of this commodity cluster for European industry.