Market evolution: Gold (CN 7108) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of gold (Combined Nomenclature code 7108) by the European Union with non-EU countries from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a period of profound transformation, characterized by a dramatic surge in trade values driven by soaring gold prices, a fundamental shift in the EU's trade position, and significant structural realignments in production and partner relationships. By the end of the period, the EU had evolved from a modest net importer into a substantial net exporter of gold.

I. From Net Importer to Net Exporter: A Decade of Trade Reversal

The most striking feature of the 2015-2025 period is the fundamental reversal in the EU's gold trade balance, propelled by a meteoric rise in export values that far outpaced import growth.

The Surge in Export Values Outpaces Imports

While both imports and exports grew in value, exports increased at a significantly faster rate. Total EU exports of CN 7108 goods rose from approximately EUR 7.9 billion in 2015 to EUR 27.1 billion in 2025, a 241% increase. In contrast, imports grew from EUR 7.5 billion to EUR 19.5 billion (+160.5%). This divergence transformed the trade balance from a small surplus of EUR 455 million in 2015 to a massive surplus of EUR 7.6 billion in 2025. The EU's net import reliance consequently shifted from +23% in 2015 to -76% in 2025, underscoring its new role as a net supplier to the world market.

The Unwavering Centrality of Switzerland

Switzerland remained the dominant partner in EU gold trade throughout the period, but its role evolved. It was the top source of imports and the top destination for exports in both 2015 and 2025. However, the growth in the export relationship was more explosive. Exports to Switzerland surged from EUR 5.5 billion to EUR 16.3 billion (+195.2%), while imports from Switzerland grew from EUR 5.2 billion to EUR 13.0 billion (+149.3%). This cemented Switzerland's position as the primary hub for EU gold flows, likely reflecting its role as a global refining and financial center. The full picture of these partner dynamics can be explored on the dashboard.

Divergent Trends Among Key Member States

At the national level within the EU, the drivers of this shift were not uniform. Germany and Italy were the largest exporting members by 2025, with exports growing by 235% and 303% respectively. On the import side, Germany saw explosive growth (+263%), while Italy's growth was more moderate (+151%). Notably, France's import role expanded dramatically (+1044%), though from a low base. The table below summarizes the performance of the top EU reporters.

Source: Top reporters by value

II. The Price-Driven Nature of the Boom: Soaring Values Amid Stable Volumes

The dramatic increase in trade values was almost entirely a price phenomenon. Physical trade volumes in tonnes remained relatively stable, indicating that the value explosion was fueled by the global appreciation of gold prices.

Value Surges Contrasted with Flat Quantities

Between 2015 and 2025, the average price per tonne of EU gold imports more than doubled, rising from EUR 25.2 million to EUR 65.3 million. For exports, the price increase was even more pronounced, from EUR 29.0 million to EUR 80.8 million per tonne. In stark contrast, the traded volume in tonnes was remarkably stable. EU import quantity edged up by just 0.4% (from 297.6t to 298.8t), while export volume increased by 22.4% (from 273.8t to 335.1t). This clearly demonstrates that the value boom was driven by price, not volume.

High Volatility and Notable Price Shocks in Specific Trade Corridors

Price volatility varied significantly by partner. Exports to Lebanon and Korea showed the highest volatility (Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 1.98 and 2.09, respectively). Imports from the United Arab Emirates were also highly volatile (CV of 1.53). The data detects specific price shock events, most notably a 120.5% abnormal price shift in exports to Türkiye in 2023 and a 154.6% shift in imports from the United Kingdom in 2019. These shocks highlight the sensitivity of bilateral gold flows to market conditions and possibly to shifts in the composition of trade (e.g., varying purity or form).

III. Structural Shifts in Production and Trade Composition

Behind the headline figures, the period saw a structural consolidation of EU gold production and a clear shift in the product mix, favoring unwrought forms.

A Resurgence and Revaluation of EU Production

EU production of gold (CN 7108) underwent a significant revaluation. While production quantity (in kg) increased by 41.6% (from 352,737 kg to 499,323 kg), production value skyrocketed by 1,079% (from EUR 1.26 billion to EUR 14.9 billion). This indicates that price appreciation, not a massive output increase, drove the higher value of domestic production, aligning with global trends.

Dominance of Unwrought Gold in Trade Flows

A clear structural preference for unwrought gold (sub-code 710812) is evident. In 2025, unwrought gold accounted for 69% of the value of EU exports and 67% of the value of imports. Its trade value saw explosive growth. The export value of unwrought gold grew from EUR 6.0 billion to EUR 22.1 billion (+266%), while its import value rose from EUR 4.7 billion to EUR 13.2 billion (+183%). The product segment breakdown shows that semi-manufactured forms (710813) also grew but remained a secondary category. Trade in monetary gold (710820) was negligible.

Moderately Concentrated Yet Diversifying Market Structure

The market structure, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), suggests moderate concentration that slightly decreased over the period. The HHI for import values fell from 5,000 to 4,601 (-8%), and for export values from 5,121 to 4,524 (-11.7%). While still indicating a market dominated by a few players, the trend points towards a modest diversification of trade partners. Specialization within the EU remained high in traditional centers like Austria (RCA 3.98) and Italy (RCA 2.08) in 2025, though newer hubs like Estonia showed high export specialization.

Conclusion

The decade from 2015 to 2025 was transformative for EU gold trade. The period was defined by a price-driven explosion in trade values, which catapulted the EU's role from a net importer to a major net exporter. This shift was facilitated by the consistent and deepening trade relationship with Switzerland and supported by a revaluation of EU domestic production. While physical trade volumes remained relatively stable, the composition favored unwrought gold. The market structure, though still concentrated, showed early signs of diversification. These dynamics position the EU not just as a significant consumer, but as an increasingly active supplier and processor in the global gold market.