Market evolution: Semi-manufactured gold (CN 710813) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in semi-manufactured gold (Customs Code 710813) over the period 2015-2025. The data reveals a market profoundly influenced by global gold price movements, which have driven substantial increases in the total value of trade while physical volumes have followed a different, less dramatic trajectory. The EU's role has transformed from a net importer with significant internal consumption to a highly export-oriented hub, leveraging its refining and manufacturing capacity. Key developments include a dramatic reorientation of export destinations, a consolidation of import sources, and a strategic shift within EU production towards higher-value segments.

The Price-Value Divergence: Strong Growth Fueled by Soaring Gold Prices

The most prominent feature of the period is the stark divergence between the growth in trade values and the relatively modest changes in physical quantities. This pattern indicates that the primary driver of trade expansion has been the global appreciation of gold prices rather than a fundamental increase in the volume of semi-manufactured gold being traded.

Export value tripled while physical volume grew modestly

Between 2015 and 2025, the total value of EU exports of CN 710813 surged by 188.8%, from €1.73 billion to €5.01 billion. In stark contrast, the net mass exported grew by only 14.5%, from 61.6 to 70.6 tonnes. This resulted in the unit price for exports (EUR per tonne) increasing by 152.5% over the same period, confirming that price appreciation was the dominant factor behind value growth. Similar dynamics are observed on the import side, where value grew by 125.6% despite a 19.7% decrease in quantity imported. The General Overview shows this trend clearly across all years.

The EU trade deficit persists but narrows on a value basis

The EU consistently ran a trade deficit in semi-manufactured gold over the period. However, the deficit's evolution reflects the price-driven market. Its value decreased from -€1.08 billion in 2015 to -€1.34 billion in 2025, a change of -24.1%. This modest change masks the fact that the underlying quantities shifted more significantly: import volumes fell while export volumes rose slightly, reducing the EU's net import reliance from 23.0% in 2015 to 19.0% in 2025.

Geographic Reorientation: A Surge in Exports and a Concentration of Imports

The period witnessed a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's key trade partners, with a powerful pivot in exports towards the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates, and a consolidation of imports around Switzerland.

Export growth was led by the UK and UAE, surpassing traditional partners

The most significant shift was in the destination of EU exports. While Switzerland remained the top partner, its share of export value grew by a more modest 64.1%. The explosive growth was directed elsewhere. Exports to the United Kingdom grew by 411.3%, from €471 million to €2.41 billion, making it the largest single destination by 2025. Similarly, exports to the United Arab Emirates grew by 305.4%, reaching €445 million. This reorientation suggests the EU has increasingly served as a refinery and processing center for gold flowing to these major financial and trading hubs. The data on top export partners underscores this geographic pivot.

Import supply consolidated around Switzerland amid volatile secondary sources

EU imports became heavily concentrated on Switzerland, which consistently supplied over 80% of imports by value. This partnership saw import values grow by 147.1%. Other major suppliers displayed high volatility. For instance, imports from Brazil and Suriname collapsed (by -97.5% and -98.1% respectively), while imports from the United States grew by 1,088.7%. This volatility in non-Swiss sources, reflected in high coefficients of variation, further solidified Switzerland's role as the EU's primary and most stable source of semi-manufactured gold, as detailed in the volatility analysis.

Internal EU Dynamics: Production Shift and Member State Specialization

Internal EU dynamics show a strategic adaptation, with production moving towards higher-value outputs and economic activity concentrating in member states with established gold industries.

EU production volume fell sharply, but its value increased dramatically

The EU's domestic production of semi-manufactured gold underwent a profound structural shift. Between the first and last available years, production volume in kilograms fell by 37.6%. However, its value increased by 208.3%. This indicates a clear move within EU manufacturing up the value chain, focusing on products with higher gold content or more refined forms, which command significantly higher prices per unit of weight. This trend aligns with the observed growth in the import and export of the sub-category "other semi-manufactured forms" (71081380), which typically includes more specialized items. The production volume data provides the basis for this observation.

Export activity concentrated in Southern and Western European member states

The rise in EU export performance was driven by a specific group of member states. Spain emerged as the standout exporter, with export value growing by 591.2% to become the largest single exporter within the EU by 2025. Italy and Austria also saw massive growth (867.4% and 5,358.2% respectively), cementing their roles. This concentration is further validated by specialization indices: in 2025, Spain, Portugal, and Luxembourg had the highest Relative Revealed Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores for CN 710813 exports, indicating a high degree of competitive specialization in this product. The specialization data highlights this geographic focus.

Conclusion

The EU trade market for semi-manufactured gold (CN 710813) over 2015-2025 was characterized by three defining trends: first, a price-driven explosion in trade values that masked more stable physical volumes; second, a strategic reorientation of exports towards the UK and UAE, turning the EU into a major processing and distribution node; and third, an internal adaptation where production shifted to higher-value segments and export capacity concentrated in a few specialized member states like Spain, Italy, and Austria. While the EU maintained a structural trade deficit, its net import reliance declined. The market's high dependency on Swiss imports for raw material was consolidated, while the volatility of other suppliers increased. Overall, the period saw the EU deepen its role in the global gold semi-manufactures supply chain, albeit one heavily leveraged to gold price cycles and reliant on key partners for both imports and export outlets.