Market evolution: Unwrought gold (CN 710812) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU trade in unwrought non-monetary gold (CN 710812) over the 2015-2025 period. The data reveals a market characterized by a dramatic escalation in trade values, driven primarily by surging global gold prices rather than proportional increases in traded volumes. The EU has solidified its position as a significant net exporter, with trade flows heavily concentrated around key partners like Switzerland. The period also shows a strengthening in the EU's export specialization and production capacity.

1. The Great Value Divergence: Prices Surge, Volumes Modest

The most striking dynamic in the EU's gold trade is the dramatic divergence between value and volume. While the physical quantity of gold traded grew moderately, its total value skyrocketed, reflecting the dominant role of global price movements.

Trade values have expanded massively while quantities remain relatively stable.

Between 2015 and 2025, EU import values increased by 182.6%, from €4.66 billion to €13.16 billion. In contrast, import quantities (net mass) grew by only 5.4%. This pattern is even more pronounced in exports: value surged by 266.4% to €22.05 billion, while quantity rose 28.9% to 263.7 tonnes. The EU's trade balance in value terms swung from a modest surplus of €1.36 billion in 2015 to a robust surplus of €8.89 billion in 2025, an increase of over 550%.

Unit prices, not volumes, drove the value explosion.

The unit price per tonne tells the story. For imports, the average price grew from €31.68 million per tonne in 2015 to €84.97 million in 2025 (view data). Similarly, export unit prices rose from €29.39 million to €83.61 million per tonne. This near-tripling of prices aligns with the global bullion market rally over this decade and is the fundamental driver behind the soaring trade values.

Table: EU Trade Evolution in CN 710812 (2015 vs. 2025)

2. Geographical Reorientation: Partner Concentration and Shocks

The EU's gold trade is highly concentrated, but the geographical map of its key partners has shown some volatility and notable shifts in specific corridors.

Switzerland is the undisputed cornerstone of EU gold trade.

Switzerland consistently dominates both sides of the EU's gold ledger. It was the source of 67.4% of EU imports in 2025 and the destination for 67.2% of exports. The value of trade with Switzerland has followed the overall market trend, growing substantially in absolute terms, though its share has remained relatively stable.

The United States and United Arab Emirates have become major import sources.

While traditional suppliers like South Africa remain important, the most dramatic growth occurred with other partners. Imports from the United States surged by an extraordinary 5,802%, from €22 million in 2015 to €1.31 billion in 2025. Similarly, imports from the UAE grew by 2,624%. This volatility is reflected in the high coefficient of variation (CV) scores for these partners, indicating significant year-on-year fluctuations.

Trade concentration has slightly decreased.

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports declined by 20.8% from 4,699 to 3,721, suggesting a modest diversification of import sources. Export concentration also fell, though less sharply (-8.5%). This indicates a slight broadening of the EU's trade network beyond its primary Swiss hub.

3. The EU's Strengthening Export Profile and Production Base

Beyond the price effect, the period reveals a structural strengthening of the EU's role as a major gold exporter, supported by growing internal production and specialization.

Germany and Italy have become export powerhouses.

Within the EU, Germany's exports grew by 244% to €9.84 billion, while Italy's grew by 273% to €7.24 billion in 2025. These two countries accounted for over three-quarters of the EU's total export value in 2025. France also emerged as a significant exporter, growing from €94 million to €1.50 billion.

EU production has expanded to meet demand.

EU production of unwrought gold increased by 39.5% in quantity (from 186 to 260 tonnes) and by 53.6% in value (from €6.51 billion to an estimated €10 billion) over the period. This growth underpins the EU's capacity to maintain and expand its export surplus. The EU is a specialized exporter, with a negative net import reliance of -269%, meaning it exports roughly 3.7 times more value than it imports.

Export propensity highlights the sector's outward orientation.

The export propensity (exports as a share of production) reached 170.5% in 2025, up from 144.4% in 2015. This indicates that the EU's gold sector is becoming increasingly oriented towards international markets, with a growing share of its output being exported.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in unwrought non-monetary gold between 2015 and 2025 was transformed by the global bullion price boom. This masked a more modest growth in physical trade volumes. The market structure remains highly concentrated on Switzerland, though with signs of gradual diversification towards new suppliers like the US and UAE. Internally, the EU's role as a net exporter has strengthened, powered by a significant expansion in production and exports, particularly from Germany and Italy. The sector is now a major, price-sensitive export earner for the bloc, with a high degree of outward orientation. Future volatility will remain tied to global gold prices and the stability of key bilateral trade flows.