Market evolution: Gold semi-manufactures (CN 71081310) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in gold semi-manufactures — bars, rods, wire, sections, plates, sheets and strips over 0.15 mm thick, including gold plated with platinum — classified under Combined Nomenclature code 71081310. The analysis covers the period 2015–2025 based on annual trade data.

Over this decade, the EU's trade in gold semi-manufactures underwent a dramatic transformation. While both import and export values surged — rising 171.8% and 86.0% respectively — physical quantities told a very different story, with export volumes actually declining by 16.1%. This divergence points to the dominant role of rising gold prices in shaping headline figures. Beyond price effects, the period saw a marked geographic re-concentration of trade around Switzerland, a collapse of traditional Latin American supply routes, and a significant shift in the EU's structural position from a net importing to an increasingly export-oriented bloc. Three dynamics stand out as the most consequential: the price-driven value explosion, the deepening dependence on Switzerland, and the EU's evolving role as a processing and re-export hub.

1. The Price-Value Divergence: Soaring Values Mask Weakening Volumes

Export values climbed while quantities fell

Between 2015 and 2025, EU export values for gold semi-manufactures rose from €1.34 billion to €2.50 billion — an 86.0% increase. Yet over the same period, export quantities in net mass declined from 42.6 tonnes to 35.7 tonnes (−16.1%). This means the entire increase in export value was driven by higher unit prices rather than by growing physical flows. The average export price per tonne surged from €31.5 million to €69.9 million (+121.8%), closely tracking the global appreciation of gold over the same decade.

Import volumes grew but price increases dominated

EU imports showed a different pattern: both quantities and values increased. Import volumes rose from 72.0 tonnes to 84.0 tonnes (+16.7%), while import values soared from €1.38 billion to €3.74 billion (+171.8%). Again, the price effect was decisive — the average import price per tonne more than doubled, from €19.1 million to €44.5 million (+132.9%). This suggests the EU sourced more physical gold semi-manufactures but paid disproportionately more for them.

EU production reflected the same pattern

The EU's domestic production followed an even more pronounced version of this dynamic. Production volumes fell sharply from 352,657 kg to 220,000 kg (−37.6%), yet production value surged from €1.26 billion to €3.89 billion (+208.3%). This divergence is fully consistent with a gold price boom rather than a genuine expansion of productive capacity.

The trade balance deteriorated substantially

The EU's trade balance in gold semi-manufactures shifted from a near-equilibrium position (−€31.5 million in 2015) to a significant deficit of €1.24 billion by 2025. This deterioration was driven by imports growing much faster than exports in value terms. The supplementary-unit data — based on gross tonnage rather than net mass — confirms this trend, with import supplementary quantities rising 73.5% while export supplementary quantities fell 18.0%.

Notably, net import reliance actually declined over the period, suggesting that while the monetary deficit widened, the EU's structural dependence on external gold supplies — measured in relation to apparent consumption — eased somewhat. This is consistent with the EU becoming a more significant re-exporter of processed gold.

2. Switzerland's Dominance and the Collapse of Latin American Supply Chains

Switzerland consolidated its position as the EU's overwhelmingly dominant partner

The most striking geographic development over 2015–2025 was the dramatic concentration of EU gold semi-manufactures trade around Switzerland. On the import side, Swiss shipments to the EU grew from €738 million to €3.17 billion (+329.5%), accounting for 84.7% of all EU imports by value in 2025. On the export side, Switzerland also remained the EU's largest customer, absorbing €1.19 billion in 2025 (up 96.3% from 2015).

This concentration is confirmed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports, which more than doubled from 3,204 to 7,270. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered highly concentrated; at 7,270, the EU's import market for this product is essentially a single-supplier market. Switzerland's role as the world's premier gold refining and trading hub — centred in Zurich and Geneva — explains this dominance: raw gold is imported to Switzerland, refined into semi-manufactured forms, and then shipped to EU industrial and jewellery consumers.

Latin American suppliers virtually disappeared

Two of the most dramatic shifts in the data involve Brazil and Suriname. Brazil's exports to the EU collapsed from €171.5 million in 2015 to just €4.5 million in 2025 (−97.4%). Suriname's exports fell from €135.7 million to €2.6 million (−98.1%). These two countries, once significant direct suppliers of gold semi-manufactures to Europe, have effectively exited the market. The likely explanation is twofold: (a) increased regulatory scrutiny and due diligence requirements around artisanal and small-scale mining, and (b) a shift in global gold flows whereby South American gold is increasingly refined in Switzerland or the Middle East before reaching European buyers.

The United States emerged as a fast-growing secondary supplier

US exports of gold semi-manufactures to the EU grew from €18.1 million to €228.0 million (+1,158.5%), making the United States the second-largest import partner by 2025. This dramatic rise may reflect the growth of US gold refining capacity, the strengthening of transatlantic industrial supply chains (particularly for electronics and aerospace applications), or re-routing of flows previously channelled through other intermediaries.

Export markets diversified slightly, with the UAE gaining prominence

On the export side, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the fastest-growing destination, with EU shipments rising from €103.8 million to €412.0 million (+296.9%). The UAE's role as a gold trading hub for the Middle East and South Asia makes this a natural development. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom remained a stable major customer (€455.5M to €463.2M), and Andorra emerged as a surprisingly dynamic small market (€0.3M to €18.3M, +5,147.9%). The export HHI declined slightly from 3,276 to 2,903, indicating a modest diversification of export destinations even as imports became more concentrated.

3. The EU's Transformation into an Export-Oriented Gold Processing Hub

Export propensity surged dramatically

Perhaps the most structurally significant development was the transformation of the EU's export orientation. Export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production — leapt from 14.7% to 79.6% (+440.4%). This means that whereas in 2015 the EU exported only a small fraction of its output, by 2025 it was exporting the vast majority. This is a fundamental shift from a domestically-oriented to an externally-oriented production model.

Trade intensity doubled, indicating deeper integration into global gold value chains

Trade intensity — the sum of imports and exports relative to production — rose from 41.1% to 90.0%. This near-doubling suggests the EU has become far more deeply integrated into the global gold semi-manufactures value chain, serving both as a major import hub (primarily from Switzerland) and a significant re-exporter (to the UAE, UK, Türkiye, and other markets). The EU increasingly functions as a processing and distribution node rather than a self-sufficient producer.

Member-state specialisation reveals a fragmented industrial landscape

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals marked heterogeneity among EU member states:

Germany alone accounts for 48.4% of EU production but has only a moderate comparative advantage (RCA 2.28), suggesting its output is driven by large-scale industrial demand rather than export specialisation. Spain and Portugal show much higher RCA values (4.61 and 4.40 respectively), indicating that their gold semi-manufactures sectors are disproportionately export-oriented. Luxembourg's high RCA (4.79) likely reflects its role as a financial and precious metals trading centre. Conversely, the Netherlands and Belgium — despite their large overall trade volumes — show very low specialisation in this product, consistent with their roles as general-purpose logistics hubs rather than gold processing centres.

Volatility and shocks highlight supply chain risks

The volatility analysis reveals significant instability in key trade relationships. Two notable shock events were detected:

1. UK import price shock (2019): A 331.0% price shift in imports from the United Kingdom, with an abnormality score of 3.9. This may reflect the reclassification of gold flows ahead of Brexit or a sudden change in the composition of UK-origin gold shipments.

2. UAE export price shock (2022): A −37.8% price shift in exports to the UAE, with an abnormality score of 4.1 and a value share of 15.3%. This coincided with a period of global gold market turbulence and may reflect compositional changes in the types of semi-manufactures shipped to Dubai.

Export volatility was generally higher than import volatility. The coefficient of variation for exports to the UAE (2.22), Andorra (2.68), and Lebanon (2.12) was markedly elevated, indicating that these routes are prone to large year-to-year swings. Import volatility was highest for Guinea (1.71) and the UAE (1.83), though these are relatively small trade flows.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU's trade in gold semi-manufactures (CN 71081310) was shaped by three converging forces: surging gold prices, geographic concentration around Switzerland, and a structural shift toward an export-oriented processing model.

The headline figures — import values up 171.8%, export values up 86.0% — are largely a reflection of gold price appreciation rather than genuine volume growth. Physical export quantities actually declined, and EU production volumes fell by 37.6%. The trade balance deteriorated from near-equilibrium to a €1.24 billion deficit, driven by the faster growth of imports relative to exports.

The geographic structure of trade became dramatically more concentrated. Switzerland's share of EU imports surged to 84.7% by value, while traditional suppliers from Latin America (Brazil, Suriname) virtually vanished. This concentration creates a structural dependency on Swiss refining capacity and regulatory frameworks. The import HHI of 7,270 signals a level of supplier concentration that warrants attention from a supply security perspective.

Most fundamentally, the EU's role in the global gold semi-manufactures value chain has been redefined. The explosion of export propensity from 14.7% to 79.6% indicates that the EU has become a major re-exporter and processing hub, importing primarily from Switzerland and shipping finished or semi-finished gold products to markets in the UAE, UK, Türkiye, and beyond. This evolution — from a relatively self-contained market to a deeply integrated node in global gold value chains — represents the single most important structural transformation documented in these data.