Market evolution: Glass rods tubes balls unworked (CN 7002) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Customs code 7002 covers unworked glass in balls, rods, or tubes — a category that sits upstream in the glass value chain and supplies critical inputs to industries ranging from semiconductors and photovoltaics to laboratory equipment and lighting. The product scope includes five sub-categories: glass balls (700210), glass rods (700220), fused quartz or silica tubes (700231), low-expansion tubes (700232), and other glass tubes (700239). The European Union has historically been a major net exporter in this segment, leveraging strong capabilities in high-purity quartz processing and specialty glass manufacturing.

Over the 2015–2025 decade, however, EU trade in CN 7002 has undergone a profound transformation. Total exports fell by 42.7% in value (from €502.2 million to €287.7 million) while imports rose by 33.0% (from €100.4 million to €133.5 million). This report examines the main dynamics behind this shift, tracing the erosion of the EU's trade surplus, the reorientation of trade partners, and the structural changes occurring at the product-segment level.

1. The Erosion of the EU's Trade Surplus

Export volumes and values have declined across the period

The EU's external trade in CN 7002 has contracted on the export side in both volume and value terms. According to the general trade overview, export quantity fell from 75,194 tonnes in 2015 to 54,878 tonnes in 2025 (−27.0%), while export value dropped from €502.2 million to €287.7 million (−42.7%). The value decline was steeper than the volume decline because average export prices also fell by 21.5% (from €6,678/t to €5,240/t), although the unit-value trajectory was volatile over the decade, peaking at €7,215/t in 2022 before retreating.

The trade surplus has narrowed dramatically

The EU's trade surplus in CN 7002 shrank from €401.8 million in 2015 to €154.3 million in 2025, a decline of 61.6%. The surplus reached its peak at approximately €509.7 million around 2017–2018, driven by a boom in fused quartz tube exports. Since then, the erosion has been relentless. The net import reliance indicator, which measures the EU's dependence on external supply, moved from −29.7% in 2015 to −15.8% in 2025 (a 46.7% change). While the EU remains a net exporter — the indicator is still negative — the margin of self-sufficiency has narrowed considerably, and the peak surplus reliance of −81.1% around 2018 now appears exceptional rather than structural.

Domestic production has shifted toward higher-value output

Production data reveals an important nuance: EU production volume in CN 7002 declined from 162,693 tonnes to 141,173 tonnes (−13.2%), yet production value rose from €421.5 million to €592.1 million (+40.5%). This divergence implies that the remaining EU production has shifted toward higher-value-added segments — consistent with the observed pattern of premium-priced specialty glass (fused quartz, low-expansion tubes) retaining or increasing unit values even as volumes contract. The EU appears to be producing less glass in absolute terms but capturing more value per unit, a classic sign of upstream economies moving up the value chain or being pushed into niche specialization by lower-cost competitors.

2. Shifting Trade Partners: Geopolitical Ruptures and New Dependencies

China has receded as the EU's primary export destination

The most striking partner-level change on the export side is the collapse of EU exports to China. In 2015, China was the EU's largest export market at €191.8 million; by 2025, this had fallen to €54.7 million (−71.5%). The United States, the second-largest market, also contracted sharply from €155.0 million to €71.5 million (−53.9%). Together, these two markets accounted for the vast majority of the EU's export decline. Smaller markets like Switzerland (+4.2%), Egypt (+8.9%), and Mexico (+32.1%) proved more resilient, but their combined weight could not compensate for the loss of the two dominant destinations.

The retreat from China likely reflects the maturation of the Chinese domestic glass industry, which has progressively built capacity in fused quartz and specialty tubes — segments where the EU once held a near-monopoly. China's increasing self-sufficiency in these inputs, driven by massive investments in semiconductor and photovoltaic supply chains, has directly eroded demand for EU-origin glass.

Asian suppliers have gained ground in EU import markets

On the import side, the United States remained the largest supplier (€44.0 million → €58.8 million, +33.8%), but the most rapid growth came from Asian sources. China's exports to the EU grew from €27.3 million to €46.3 million (+69.3%), while Malaysia surged from €6.7 million to €14.9 million (+121.5%) and Thailand from €0.6 million to €1.2 million (+97.8%). The growth of Malaysia as a supplier is particularly noteworthy and may reflect broader "China+1" supply-chain diversification strategies, with some glass manufacturing shifting to Southeast Asia.

Sanctions and Brexit have redrawn parts of the trade map

The near-total disappearance of imports from Belarus (from €1.2 million to €0) and the Russian Federation (from €0.6 million to €53.7) is a direct consequence of EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. On the export side, EU sales to Russia held up at €7.1 million in 2025 (from €8.0 million in 2015, −11.7%), suggesting either that glass rods/tubes were not fully covered by sanctions regimes or that some trade persisted through indirect channels. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom's share of EU imports fell by 62.2% (from €2.1 million to €0.8 million), consistent with the post-Brexit reorientation of UK trade patterns.

Export concentration has diversified while import sources have become more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) tells a revealing story of opposing trends. On the export side, the value-based HHI fell from 2,484 to 1,262 (−49.2%), indicating that EU exports have become significantly more diversified across partner countries — a healthy development from a risk perspective. On the import side, however, the HHI rose from 2,830 to 3,366 (+18.9%), meaning that EU import sources have become more concentrated. This growing import concentration, combined with the rising share of Asian suppliers, may expose the EU to greater supply-chain risk in this product category.

Germany dominates intra-EU trade, while Poland has emerged as a major importer

Among EU member states, Germany is overwhelmingly the largest exporter (€409.7 million in 2015, declining to €232.8 million in 2025, −43.2%) and also the most specialised member state, with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.45. France (RSCA 0.31) and Italy (RSCA 0.21) also display moderate specialisation.

The most dramatic shift among importers is Poland's surge: its imports rose from €4.9 million to €31.5 million (+538.0%), making it the second-largest importing member state by 2025 after Germany. This likely reflects Poland's rapid industrialisation and its growing role as a manufacturing platform within the EU, particularly for electronics and automotive components that consume unworked glass inputs.

Belgium's extraordinary export growth (+1,645%) merits attention: rising from under €300,000 to €5.2 million suggests the emergence of new production or distribution capacity, possibly linked to logistics hub effects or re-export activity.

3. Rising Unit Values and Segment-Level Divergence

Fused quartz tubes: the backbone of EU exports under severe pressure

The product segment breakdown reveals that the decline in EU exports is overwhelmingly concentrated in one sub-product: fused quartz or other fused silica tubes (CN 700231). This segment saw export volumes collapse from 5,458 tonnes in 2015 to just 1,085 tonnes in 2025 (−80.1%), while export value fell from €278.2 million to €85.5 million (−69.3%). Yet export unit values for this segment actually rose from €50,973/t to €78,711/t (+54.4%), indicating that the EU has retreated from the higher-volume part of the market while retaining pricing power in premium niches.

Fused quartz tubes are critical inputs for the semiconductor, solar, and fibre-optic industries. The EU's volume decline in this segment likely reflects intensified competition from Chinese producers who have invested heavily in high-purity quartz processing capacity. The simultaneous rise in EU export unit values suggests that remaining EU producers are focusing on the most technologically demanding specifications — those requiring the highest purity standards or the tightest tolerances — where barriers to entry remain significant.

Import prices have surged across all product segments

On the import side, the most striking feature is the broad-based escalation of unit values. Import prices for fused quartz tubes (700231) more than doubled from €16,369/t to €37,659/t (+129.9%), while volumes fell from 2,593 tonnes to 1,177 tonnes (−54.6%). The general glass tubes segment (700239) saw prices rise from €1,557/t to €2,093/t (+34.4%). This pattern — rising import prices alongside declining volumes — is consistent with a market in which supply constraints (energy costs, raw material shortages, post-COVID disruptions) have pushed up costs, and where the remaining import flows are increasingly concentrated in higher-specification products.

Glass rods have emerged as a fast-growing import category

The most dynamic import segment is glass rods (CN 700220). Import volumes grew from 354 tonnes to 905 tonnes (+155.6%), while the value of imports surged from €17.7 million to €57.2 million (+223.4%). At a unit value of €63,139/t in 2025, glass rods are by far the most expensive import segment, suggesting that the EU is importing highly specialised rod products — likely borosilicate or other specialty formulations used in laboratory, lighting, or technical applications. The volatility data shows relatively moderate coefficient of variation for major import partners (China at 0.28, United States at 0.30), suggesting these flows are becoming structurally embedded rather than opportunistic.

Price shocks have been concentrated in export markets

The supply shock analysis identifies three notable price shock events in EU exports:

The 2022 US price shock is the most consequential, affecting a market that still accounted for nearly a third of EU export value. The 2020 Russia shock — a sharp price spike with abnormality of 3.7 — preceded the formal sanctions regime and may reflect early supply disruptions or anticipatory pricing behaviour.

Conclusion

The decade 2015–2025 marks a period of significant structural change for EU trade in unworked glass (CN 7002). The EU has moved from a position of strong export dominance — with a trade surplus exceeding €400 million — to a more balanced but diminished position, with the surplus shrinking to €154 million. The primary driver has been the collapse of fused quartz tube export volumes, once the crown jewel of EU glass exports, as Chinese and other Asian producers have built competing capacity.

At the same time, the EU's trade profile has become more geographically diversified on the export side (HHI −49.2%) but more concentrated on the import side (HHI +18.9%), creating an asymmetric risk exposure. The disappearance of Belarus and Russia as suppliers, the decline in UK trade post-Brexit, and the rise of Malaysia as an import source all point to a market being reshaped by geopolitical forces as much as by competitive dynamics.

The silver lining lies in unit-value trends: across both exports and imports, prices have risen substantially — by 54% for exported fused quartz tubes and by 130% for imported ones. This suggests that the EU is retaining its position in the highest-value niches of the market, even as it cedes volume ground. The challenge for the coming years will be whether this premium positioning can sustain the EU's trade surplus as Asian competitors continue to move up the quality curve.