Market evolution: Safety glass (CN 7007) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in safety glass products (customs code 7007) over the 2015–2025 period. The product category encompasses toughened ("tempered") and laminated safety glass, excluding multiple-walled insulating units, spectacle lenses, and clock/watch glasses. The category includes four subcategories: toughened glass for vehicles (700711), toughened glass for other uses (700719), laminated glass for vehicles (700721), and laminated glass for other uses (700729).

Over the decade, the EU's position in global safety glass trade has undergone a dramatic transformation. What was a market characterized by trade surpluses and export dominance has shifted toward structural import dependence, driven by the rapid growth of Asian supply—particularly from China—combined with declining EU export volumes. This report identifies three principal dynamics that have reshaped the market.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: The Structural Reversal of EU Trade Balance

The EU's trade balance has swung from a €309 million surplus to a €264 million deficit

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the complete reversal of the EU's trade position in safety glass. In 2015, the EU enjoyed a trade surplus of €309.4 million, exporting €1.13 billion while importing €822 million. By 2025, this had flipped to a deficit of €263.8 million, with imports reaching €1.30 billion against exports of €1.03 billion. The net import reliance shifted from -5.0% (indicating net exporter status) to +2.8% (indicating net importer status).

Diverging volume trajectories drove the balance shift

The reversal was not merely a price phenomenon—it reflected a fundamental divergence in traded volumes:

EU exports declined by over 81,000 tonnes in volume while export prices rose significantly—suggesting the EU has been losing competitiveness in lower-value segments while maintaining or shifting toward higher-value exports. Meanwhile, imports grew by nearly 250,000 tonnes with stable prices, indicating that foreign suppliers have been able to scale up shipments without substantial price inflation.

EU production has remained broadly flat in volume while value increased

EU domestic production volume was 558 million kg in 2015 and 551 million kg in 2025—a decline of just 1.3%. However, production value grew from €4.71 billion to €6.46 billion (+37.3%), implying substantial price increases within the EU's own manufacturing base. This combination of flat volume and rising domestic prices, alongside growing import volumes at lower price points, points to a structural shift whereby imported glass increasingly serves price-sensitive demand segments.

2. Geographic Reorientation: China's Rise and the Reshaping of Trade Corridors

China has become the EU's dominant safety glass supplier

The most consequential geographic shift has been China's surge as an import source. Chinese imports grew from €330 million in 2015 to €758 million in 2025—an increase of 129.7%. China now accounts for a dominant share of EU safety glass imports, and this growth has been a primary driver of the overall import surge.

China's growth is complemented by a parallel expansion from Türkiye (+124.4%), which has grown from €104 million to €232 million. The Moroccan import source shows the largest percentage increase (+443.6%), rising from €7 million to €37 million—likely reflecting the development of export-oriented glass manufacturing in Morocco serving the European market.

European trade corridors have been disrupted by Brexit and geopolitics

Two major policy events have reshaped the EU's traditional trade flows:

• Brexit caused a significant decline in UK-related trade. EU imports from the UK fell by 61.0% (from €113 million to €44 million), and EU exports to the UK declined by 36.4% (from €451 million to €286 million). The UK remains the EU's largest single export destination but its share has diminished.

• Sanctions against Russia eliminated what had been a growing trade relationship. Imports from Russia fell from €9 million to virtually zero (-100%), while a major price shock in Russian imports was detected in 2023, with an abnormality score of 56.4 and an 823.1% price shift. Russia's import volatility coefficient of 0.84 and export volatility of 0.82 are among the highest of any partner, reflecting the disruption.

Import concentration has increased while export destinations have diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,145 to 3,812 (+77.7%), reflecting the increasing dominance of China as a supplier. This level of concentration—approaching the 4,000 threshold—indicates a moderately concentrated import market with meaningful supply-chain risk.

Conversely, the export HHI fell from 1,943 to 1,354 (-30.3%), as the EU has diversified its export base. New or growing destinations include Morocco (exports up 209.0% to €43 million) and Türkiye (exports up 123.5% to €125 million), partially offsetting the decline in UK-bound shipments.

3. Product Segment Divergence: Vehicle Glass Under Pressure, Industrial Laminated Glass Expanding

The laminated non-vehicle segment has experienced the most dramatic import growth

A breakdown of imports by product subcategory reveals that growth has been unevenly distributed:

The laminated non-vehicle segment (700729) has seen imports more than triple in volume—from 46,922 tonnes to 149,274 tonnes. This segment, which serves construction, architecture, and industrial applications, has been the fastest-growing import category. By contrast, the vehicle-related segments (700711 and 700721) have grown more moderately, suggesting that the EU's automotive glass supply chain has been relatively more resilient.

EU exports have shifted away from vehicle toughened glass

On the export side, the most notable decline has been in toughened vehicle glass (700711), where volumes fell from 84,994 tonnes in 2015 to just 30,242 tonnes in 2025 (-64.4%), despite a near-doubling of export prices (from €3,386/t to €6,316/t). This suggests the EU has been progressively exiting lower-value vehicle toughened glass production for export, concentrating instead on higher-specification products.

Similarly, toughened non-vehicle glass exports (700719) declined from 43,272 tonnes to 27,754 tonnes (-35.9%), again with substantial price increases. In contrast, the laminated segments have held up better: laminated non-vehicle exports (700729) grew from 102,091 tonnes to 128,834 tonnes (+26.2%).

Poland and Czechia anchor the EU's export specialization in safety glass

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in 2025 shows that Poland (RCA of 2.77) and Czechia (RCA of 2.28) are the most specialized large EU exporters, together accounting for nearly 29% of the bloc's production share. Smaller Member States such as Luxembourg (RCA of 7.92) and Estonia (RCA of 4.22) show very high specialization but account for minimal production volumes. The fact that EU production value has grown by 37.3% while volumes stagnated suggests that the remaining EU production is increasingly focused on higher-value, potentially more specialized safety glass products—consistent with the upward price trajectory observed across all export segments.

Conclusion

The EU safety glass market (CN 7007) has undergone a structural transformation over the 2015–2025 decade. The bloc has transitioned from a net exporter with a €309 million trade surplus to a net importer with a €264 million deficit—a swing of €573 million. This shift has been powered by the rapid expansion of imports from China (+130%) and Türkiye (+124%), which have more than compensated for declines in traditional European trade partners affected by Brexit and Russia-related sanctions.

At the product level, the most dramatic change has occurred in the laminated non-vehicle glass segment, where imports have tripled in volume. Meanwhile, the EU's export profile has evolved toward fewer tonnes at higher prices, suggesting a move up the value chain. Rising import concentration (HHI up 78%) alongside declining production volumes creates a meaningful vulnerability for the EU, particularly should supply disruptions occur from key Asian sources. The simultaneous increase in trade intensity (from 18.8% to 29.8%) confirms that the EU safety glass sector has become substantially more exposed to international market dynamics over the period under review.