Market evolution: Processed glass sheets (CN 7006) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of EU extra-EU trade in processed glass sheets and profiles under Combined Nomenclature code 7006 over the period 2015–2025. The product covers glass sheets or profiles that have been bent, edge-worked, engraved, enamelled or otherwise worked — excluding safety glass, insulating glass units, and mirrors. The decade under review was marked by significant structural shifts: a dramatic decline in traded volumes coupled with rising unit values, a reversal of the EU's trade surplus into deficit, increasing import concentration on China, and the near-complete collapse of EU exports to Russia. These dynamics reflect a combination of post-pandemic supply-chain repricing, geopolitical disruptions, and a repositioning of EU production towards higher-value segments.

Overview on the Trade Dashboard

1. From Surplus to Deficit: A Decade of Trade Balance Reversal

1.1 The aggregate picture shows the EU losing its net-exporter status

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU extra-EU exports of CN 7006 grew marginally in value terms, from €115.1 million in the first observed year to €117.4 million in the last (+2.0%). Imports, however, surged from €83.2 million to €133.0 million (+59.9%). As a result, the EU's trade balance swung from a healthy surplus of +€31.9 million to a deficit of −€15.7 million — a decline of −149.2%.

1.2 The shift was driven by collapsing volumes and surging unit prices

Behind the stable-looking export value lies a dramatic volume contraction. EU export quantities fell from 43,030 tonnes to just 17,857 tonnes (−58.5%), while export unit values tripled from €2,673/t to €6,550/t (+145.0%). A similar, though less extreme, pattern is visible on the import side: volumes declined from 53,431t to 40,257t (−24.7%) while unit values more than doubled from €1,557/t to €3,302/t (+112.1%). This simultaneous volume decline and price escalation suggests that the EU has progressively exited the lower-value, higher-volume segments of processed glass — where it faces cost competition — while concentrating on higher-specification products. The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent energy crisis (especially the 2022 spike in European natural gas prices) likely accelerated this structural shift by raising production costs for basic processed glass in Europe.

1.3 EU domestic production grew in value but showed only modest volume gains

Available production data confirms the move up the value chain. EU production quantity rose from 639 million kg to 735 million kg (+15.1%), but production value surged from €1.08 billion to €1.72 billion (+60.0%). The production unit value therefore rose substantially, reflecting both general inflation and a compositional shift toward higher-margin processed glass products.

2. Geopolitical Disruptions and Shifting Partner Concentration

2.1 China consolidated its position as the dominant import supplier

Chinese exports to the EU in CN 7006 grew from €40.8 million to €71.6 million (+75.7%), now accounting for over half of all EU imports by value. This concentration is reflected in the import HHI, which rose from 3,096 to 3,492 (+12.8%), indicating increasingly concentrated sourcing. China's cost competitiveness in processed glass — supported by lower energy and labour costs — appears to have allowed it to capture market share as EU domestic producers moved away from volume-driven segments.

2.2 Russia's near-disappearance from EU export markets reflects sanctions and trade disruption

EU exports to Russia collapsed from €7.2 million in 2015 to just €0.5 million in 2025 (−92.6%), with a coefficient of variation of 1.50 — the highest volatility among all tracked export partners. The timing is consistent with the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This represents a significant loss of an established market for EU processed glass exporters.

2.3 Japan emerged as a high-value but volatile import source with notable price shocks

Japanese imports into the EU grew from €18.8 million to €25.5 million (+35.3%), making Japan the third-largest supplier. However, the relationship was punctuated by the single largest detected price shock in the dataset: an abnormality score of 44.8 and a unit-value shift of +58.3% centred on 2023, accounting for 31.8% of import value share at that time. This likely reflects the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen combined with increased energy costs in Japan, or a compositional shift toward higher-specification Japanese glass products (e.g., display glass substrates).

2.4 Emerging Eastern European suppliers grew rapidly from low bases

Several smaller partners showed outsized percentage growth:

These suppliers remain small in absolute terms but their growth signals a diversification of EU sourcing away from traditional partners — though the geopolitical situation in Belarus (post-2020 sanctions) may reverse this trend in coming years.

2.5 Export market concentration shifted toward the United States and Switzerland

On the export side, the United States remained the largest destination (€27.4M → €34.7M, +26.8%), followed by Switzerland (€15.4M → €15.2M, essentially flat) and China (€13.8M → €15.1M, +9.4%). The export HHI rose from 1,121 to 1,505 (+34.3%), meaning that export destinations also became more concentrated — partly driven by the loss of Russia as a meaningful market. A notable price shock hit EU exports to the US in 2022 (abnormality 14.4, +68.1% unit-value shift), consistent with the post-COVID energy cost pass-through and logistics disruption.

3. Internal EU Dynamics: Production Specialisation and Member-State Divergence

3.1 Germany dominates EU trade but other members show divergent trajectories

Germany accounted for the largest share of both EU exports (€64.2M → €68.1M) and imports (€24.6M → €21.2M) in 2015–2025. However, several other member states displayed markedly different patterns:

Top EU exporters (value):

Top EU importers (value):

3.2 Poland and Italy saw explosive import growth, suggesting rising domestic demand or re-export roles

Poland's imports surged by +642.1% (from €2.4M to €17.6M), making it the fifth-largest EU importer by 2025. Italy's imports more than doubled (+125.4%, reaching €30.1M). These dynamics likely reflect booming construction and renovation activity, automotive glass processing demand, and in Italy's case, a strong solar panel and architectural glass sector. Poland's growth also aligns with its emergence as a central European manufacturing hub.

3.3 France is the most specialised EU exporter; Finland and Sweden are the least

The specialisation analysis (2025 data, using RSCA) reveals stark contrasts:

France's very high RCA (4.18) and RSCA (0.61) indicate a pronounced comparative advantage in processed glass exports, contributing nearly one-third of all EU exports in this product category despite representing only 7.8% of total EU exports. This is consistent with France's large flat-glass industrial base (notably Saint-Gobain's production network). By contrast, Nordic countries show no meaningful specialisation in this product.

3.4 Czechia's export collapse is the most dramatic intra-EU decline

Czechia's extra-EU exports in CN 7006 fell by −85.6%, from €5.1 million to €0.7 million. This steep decline, which saw Czechia drop from the sixth-largest EU exporter to near-irrelevance, may reflect the redirection of Czech glass production toward intra-EU supply chains (particularly for the German automotive sector), rising domestic energy costs following the European gas crisis, or restructuring of the Czech glass industry away from basic processed glass.

Conclusion

The EU market for processed glass sheets (CN 7006) underwent a fundamental structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most striking change is the inversion of the EU's trade balance: the bloc moved from a comfortable net-exporter position (+€32M surplus) to a modest net-importer (−€16M deficit). This was not primarily a volume story — both export and import volumes declined — but rather a price and composition story. Unit values more than doubled on both sides of the trade flow, reflecting a European industry that increasingly focuses on higher-value, more specialised processed glass while ceding commodity-grade products to Asian competitors, principally China.

Geopolitical events left a deep imprint on trade patterns. The collapse of EU exports to Russia (−92.6%) removed a significant market, while import sourcing became more concentrated on China (now over half of EU imports by value, with the import HHI rising to 3,492). Price shocks were detected in the Japan–EU import relationship (2023) and the US–EU export relationship (2022), both consistent with the post-pandemic energy repricing and currency dynamics.

Within the EU, member states diverged sharply. Germany remained the dominant player, but Italy and Poland saw explosive import growth, while Czechia's exports nearly disappeared. France emerged as the most specialised exporter, reflecting the country's deep industrial base in flat and processed glass. Overall, the data points to an EU processed glass sector that is becoming more concentrated, more specialised, and more dependent on imports for standard-grade products — a pattern consistent with broader European industrial trends of upgrading to higher-value manufacturing while outsourcing commodity production.