Market evolution: Glass bottles and containers (CN 7010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in glass bottles, containers, and related closures (Combined Nomenclature code 7010) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The analysis reveals a market characterized by a significant increase in imports, a shifting geographic concentration of trade partners, and a notable price shock in 2022. While EU exports also grew, they did so at a slower pace, leading to a substantial erosion of the sector's trade surplus. This introduction sets the stage for a deeper exploration of these three defining dynamics.

1. The Import Surge: Reshaping the EU's Trade Balance

The decade was marked by a dramatic acceleration in the value and volume of glass container imports into the EU, fundamentally altering the sector's trade position with the rest of the world.

1.1. The Scale and Speed of Import Growth

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports of CN 7010 products more than doubled, increasing from €479.4 million to €1,138.4 million—a rise of 137.5% (General Overview). Import volumes in tonnes grew by 78.3% over the same period, indicating that both higher prices and greater physical quantities contributed to the value increase. This surge stands in contrast to the more modest 28.0% growth in export value, directly leading to a 47.5% decline in the EU's trade surplus, which fell from a peak of €694.6 million in 2015 to €364.8 million in 2025.

1.2. Shifting Sources: The Rise of China and Turkey

The growth in imports was not evenly distributed across partner countries. China and Türkiye emerged as the primary drivers of this increase. Imports from China grew by 268.2% in value, rising from €96.5 million to €355.2 million, making it the EU's largest single source of glass container imports by 2025. Similarly, imports from Türkiye exploded by 657.4%, from €17.0 million to €128.4 million (top_partners_by_value). This rapid growth led to a notable increase in the concentration of EU imports, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which rose by 41.8% between 2015 and 2025.

1.3. The Erosion of Self-Sufficiency

The rapid import growth directly reduced the EU's net self-sufficiency in this product category. The net import reliance indicator, which was negative (indicating a net exporter position) at -8.8% in 2015, moved closer to zero, ending at -2.9% in 2025 (net_import_reliance_pct). This indicates that while the EU remains a net exporter, its competitive advantage has diminished considerably as its internal market has become more penetrated by imports.

2. The 2022 Price Shock and Market Volatility

The period under review was punctuated by a distinct supply-side shock in 2022, which had a lasting impact on trade values and prices, highlighting the market's vulnerability to external disruptions.

2.2. The Anatomy of the 2022 Price Spike

The year 2022 was characterized by abnormal price increases across major trade flows. The most significant shock was detected in the average unit value of EU exports to the United Kingdom, which surged by 20.2% in a single year, an event deemed highly abnormal (top_shock_events). Concurrently, the average unit value of imports from Türkiye jumped by 47.4%. This coincided with a period of high energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and inflation, which directly impacted the energy-intensive glass manufacturing industry. The shock was not uniform, with some partners like Russia (whose trade collapsed) and Belarus showing extreme volatility in their trade flows.

2.2. Lasting Effects on Prices and Unit Values

The price shock was not a temporary spike. While import prices (EUR per tonne) stabilized at a higher level, they remained well above pre-shock levels. The average import price in 2025 (€947/t) was 33.2% higher than in 2015. More strikingly, the average price per item for the main container segment (701090) imported from non-EU countries in 2025 (€0.177/item) was 39% higher than in 2015 (€0.128/item), suggesting a structural repricing of goods (Product Segment Breakdown).

2.3. Differential Volatility Across Partners

The market's vulnerability varied significantly by trading partner. Imports from Russia exhibited the highest volatility (Coefficient of Variation of 0.92), collapsing from €66.4 million in 2017 to near-zero by 2025, likely due to sanctions. Imports from Belarus (CV 0.76) and Türkiye (CV 0.56) also showed high volatility. In contrast, export flows to key partners like Switzerland (CV 0.08) and Norway (CV 0.08) were remarkably stable, indicating a more mature and predictable commercial relationship (volatility_bars).

3. Structural Shifts: Product Mix and Competitive Landscape

Beyond the headline trade figures, the period witnessed underlying shifts in the product composition of trade and a reshuffling of competitive advantages among EU member states.

3.1. Dominance of Standard Bottles and Jars

Trade in CN 7010 is overwhelmingly concentrated in the sub-category 701090, which covers standard carboys, bottles, flasks, and jars. In 2025, this segment accounted for 96.1% of import value and 97.8% of export value. The dynamics of the entire market are therefore dictated by this product line. Notably, the volume of imports (in items) for 701090 grew massively until 2021 before slightly receding, while export volumes have been declining since 2022, pointing to possible production shifts or changing demand in destination markets.

3.2. The Specialization Divide Within the EU

An analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows a stark divide within the EU. Several smaller member states exhibit high specialization in glass container production for export, with Croatia (RSCA: 0.81), Portugal (0.75), and Bulgaria (0.72) leading. Conversely, larger economies like Ireland (RSCA: -1.00), Sweden (-0.80), and Greece (-0.80) are highly unspecialized, relying heavily on imports to meet domestic demand (most_specialised_reporters). This specialization pattern influences intra-EU trade flows and the sector's overall export performance.

3.3. Production Trends and the Import Gap

EU production of glass containers (in items) grew by only 5.5% over the decade, from 91.7 billion items in 2015 to 96.8 billion in 2025. However, production value grew much faster (62.4%), reflecting the same price increases seen in trade data. The modest growth in production volume, coupled with the 78.3% growth in import volume, explains the growing import penetration. Domestic production appears to have been insufficient to meet the total demand in the EU market, or was out-competed on price, creating the space for the import surge documented in Section 1.

Conclusion

The EU's market for glass bottles and containers (CN 7010) between 2015 and 2025 has been transformed by three interconnected forces: a relentless surge in imports, primarily from Asia and neighboring regions; a severe price shock in 2022 that revealed supply chain vulnerabilities; and a realignment of production and trade within the EU itself. The sector's traditional trade surplus has been significantly eroded as import growth has far outpaced export growth. While the EU maintains a net exporter status, its increased reliance on external suppliers, coupled with the demonstrated volatility of these supply lines, presents a new strategic reality for the industry. The 2022 shock served as a stark reminder of the market's sensitivity to global disruptions, leaving a lasting imprint on prices and trade patterns that will continue to shape the competitive landscape in the years ahead.