Market evolution: Insulating glass units (CN 7008) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Multiple-walled insulating units of glass (customs code 7008) are energy-efficient glazing products widely used in construction and renovation. The EU has consistently been a net exporter of these units throughout the 2015–2025 period, with a trade surplus that grew marginally from €305 million in 2015 to €310 million in 2025 (+1.8%). However, beneath this stable headline figure lie significant structural shifts: imports grew much faster than exports (+155% vs. +14% in value), the geographic composition of trade changed markedly, and EU production volumes declined while their value surged. This report examines these dynamics across three main axes — overall trade integration, geographic reconfiguration, and price/production trends — drawing exclusively on the data provided.

1. Sustained Surplus but Deepening International Integration

The EU's net exporter position remains intact despite rapid import growth

Throughout the period, the EU maintained a positive trade balance in insulating glass units. Exports grew from €331 million in 2015 to €378 million in 2025 (+14.0%), peaking at €465 million in an intermediate year. Imports, while starting from a much smaller base, rose from €26 million to €67 million (+155.4%), reaching a high of €85 million. The net import reliance deepened from −3.0% to −6.7% over the period, meaning the EU became a proportionally stronger net exporter.

Trade intensity and export propensity roughly doubled

A striking feature of this period is the sharp rise in the EU's outward orientation. The trade intensity — total extra-EU trade as a share of EU production value — climbed from 4.0% to 9.1% (+127.7%). Similarly, the export propensity — extra-EU exports relative to production — rose from 3.5% to 7.8% (+123.8%). This suggests that the EU insulating glass sector became significantly more export-oriented over the decade, even as the domestic market remained the dominant outlet.

Export volumes grew modestly while import volumes expanded much faster

On the quantity side, export volumes increased only slightly from 104,813 tonnes to 107,744 tonnes (+2.8%). By contrast, import volumes surged from 14,346 tonnes to 22,796 tonnes (+58.9%). In supplementary area units (m²), the divergence was even more pronounced: export area grew by 9.7% while import area grew by 87.5%. This indicates that the import base, while still small, is expanding at a substantially faster rate than exports in volume terms.

2. A Reconfiguration of Trade Geography Within and Beyond the EU

Türkiye emerged as the dominant import source, while traditional partners grew slowly

The most dramatic shift on the import side was the rise of Türkiye, which went from €3.6 million in 2015 to €22.4 million in 2025 — an increase of 524.6% — making it the EU's largest single import source for insulating glass units. Other fast-growing suppliers included Belarus (+3,181.8%), the United States (+431.2%), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (+212.2%). Meanwhile, established partners like Switzerland (+21.6%) and China (+97.8%) grew at more moderate rates. The concentration of imports by value (HHI) declined from 2,235 to 1,934 (−13.5%), reflecting this diversification of supply sources.

Export destinations remained concentrated among EFTA and Anglosphere partners, but new markets surged

On the export side, the EU's top three destinations — Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom — accounted for large shares and grew steadily (+29.0%, +33.3%, and +13.1% respectively). The United States grew strongly (+70.0% to €82.0 million), and Canada nearly doubled (+84.2%). The most spectacular growth, however, was in Morocco, which jumped from €0.3 million to €8.7 million (+3,036.7%). Thailand was an outlier, declining by 61.8%. Export concentration by value (HHI) edged upward from 1,389 to 1,543 (+11.1%), indicating a slight re-consolidation around top destinations.

Inside the EU, production leadership shifted from Germany toward Poland and Spain

Among EU Member States, Germany remained the largest exporter but saw its share fall from €165 million to €105 million (−36.6%). Poland rose sharply from €46 million to €88 million (+92.1%), and Spain more than doubled from €21 million to €54 million (+160.0%). Specialisation data confirms this shift: in 2025, Lithuania (RSCA 0.76), Croatia (0.76), and Poland (0.56) were among the most specialised EU exporters, while Germany does not feature in the top five despite its absolute size. On the import side within the EU, Germany (+193.7%), the Netherlands (+403.0%), and Ireland (+443.5%) saw the largest increases, suggesting growing demand in Western European markets that is partly met by non-EU suppliers.

3. Price Escalation, Production Restructuring, and Asymmetric Volatility

Unit values rose across both imports and exports, with import prices converging upward

A key trend over the period was the sustained increase in unit prices. The average export price rose from €3,163/tonne to €3,507/tonne (+10.9%), while the average import price climbed more steeply from €1,840/tonne to €2,957/tonne (+60.7%). The import-export price gap narrowed considerably: in 2015, imported glass units cost only 58% of the export price, whereas by 2025 they cost 84%. In area terms (€/m²), export prices rose from €96 to €100 (+3.9%) while import prices rose from €41 to €57 (+36.2%). This convergence may reflect rising input costs globally, a shift toward higher-value imports, or both.

EU production volumes declined while production values surged — a sign of product-mix upgrading

According to PRODCOM production data, EU production volume (in m²) fell from 97.4 million m² to 90.9 million m² (−6.7%). Over the same period, production value rose from €2.9 billion to €5.0 billion (+75.8%). This divergence — declining volume but surging value — points to a structural shift toward higher-value products (e.g., triple glazing, low-emissivity coatings, argon-filled units) and/or significant input-cost inflation. It also means that EU producers are capturing more value per square metre even as the physical output contracts.

Import volatility is high and geographically concentrated in geopolitically sensitive origins

The coefficient of variation of import values reveals that the most volatile supply sources include the Russian Federation (CV 1.52), Ukraine (1.09), and the United States (0.81). The first two reflect geopolitical disruptions, particularly following 2022. Two notable price shock events were detected: a 32.4% price increase for exports to Norway in 2022 (abnormality score 24.8), and a 58.5% price spike for imports from Switzerland in 2017 (abnormality score 12.4). Export-side volatility was generally lower, with the UK (CV 0.10), Norway (0.12), and Switzerland (0.13) showing very stable flows — consistent with their role as long-standing, deeply integrated trade partners.

Conclusion

The EU insulating glass unit market over 2015–2025 is characterised by three overarching dynamics. First, the EU remained a strong net exporter, but its trade intensity roughly doubled, signalling deeper integration into global markets. Second, the geographic composition of trade shifted: imports diversified away from traditional European sources toward Türkiye, Eastern European neighbours, and even the US, while inside the EU, Poland and Spain gained ground against a declining Germany. Third, unit values rose across the board, and EU production underwent a clear value-over-volume transformation — producing fewer square metres but at significantly higher prices, likely reflecting both product upgrading and cost pressures.

The rising import prices and the volatility associated with geopolitically sensitive suppliers (Russia, Ukraine) suggest that while the EU's overall trade position is comfortable, supply-side vulnerabilities are worth monitoring. The concentration of export flows in a few stable EFTA and Anglosphere markets, by contrast, offers relative predictability but also creates dependence on those specific demand cycles. Looking ahead, the continued growth of intra-EU producers in Central and Eastern Europe, combined with the EU's energy-efficiency regulatory push (e.g., the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive), is likely to sustain demand for high-performance insulating glass units — though the balance between domestic supply and growing imports will be an important dynamic to watch.