Market evolution: Clock and watch glass blanks (CN 7015) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in products classified under Combined Nomenclature (CN) code 7015 over the period 2015 to 2025. This category encompasses blanks for clock or watch glasses, glasses for non-corrective and corrective spectacles, and related hollow glass spheres, all curved or bent but not optically worked. The analysis is based on a comprehensive set of trade, production, and structural data. The period was marked by a significant contraction in trade volumes, a profound transformation in the EU's production base, and a notable shift in the value and sourcing of the products traded.

I. A Decade of Contraction: The Overall Market Shrinks in Volume but Not Necessarily in Value

The most striking macro-level trend is the persistent decline in the physical volume of EU trade in this product category, which occurred alongside significant shifts in unit values and the trade balance.

Export volumes collapsed while import volumes fell more moderately

Between 2015 and 2025, the total quantity of EU exports to non-EU countries fell by 57.7%, from 1,757 tonnes to 744 tonnes. The decline in export value was less severe, at -42.1% (from €25.0 million to €14.5 million), indicating that the average price of exports increased by 40.1% over the period. This suggests a compositional shift towards higher-value products or the exit of lower-value segments from the EU's export basket.

Import trends followed a similar direction. The volume of imports into the EU decreased by 69.6%, from 312 tonnes to just 95 tonnes. Import value also declined, but by a much smaller 23.1% (from €12.6 million to €9.7 million), because the average import price surged by 147.5%. This dramatic price increase signals a shift in the nature of the products the EU sources externally, moving towards more specialized and expensive blanks.

The EU's trade surplus eroded significantly

As a net exporter throughout the period, the EU's trade surplus in glass blanks for clocks, watches, and spectacles shrank substantially. The surplus fell from €12.4 million in 2015 to €4.8 million in 2025, a contraction of 61.5%. This was driven by the steeper decline in export volumes compared to import volumes, despite the positive effect of rising export prices. The overall trade balance and its evolution clearly illustrate this trend.

II. The Hollowing Out of Domestic Production and the Rise of Concentrated Trade

The decline in trade volumes is not an isolated event but is deeply linked to a severe contraction in EU manufacturing capacity for these products, which in turn reshaped trade patterns and increased supplier concentration.

EU production of watch/spectacle glass blanks collapsed

The most dramatic structural change was the near-disappearance of EU production. Between the first and last available years, the quantity of EU production fell by 79.2% (from 12,042 tonnes to 2,507 tonnes), and its value fell by 44.4% (from €95.2 million to €52.9 million). This indicates a massive offshoring or closure of production facilities within the EU for this specific product category over the decade. The evolution of EU production volumes is central to understanding the market's trajectory.

Trade concentration increased, revealing strategic sourcing shifts

As production moved offshore, the concentration of both import and export partners increased markedly.

• The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose by 16.9%, from 3,438 to 4,019, indicating a more concentrated supplier base.
• The HHI for export value more than doubled (+106.1%), from 1,379 to 2,843, suggesting the EU's export destinations became far more focused.

The import concentration analysis shows Switzerland became the dominant import source by value (€5.2 million in 2025, despite a -13.9% decline), while China remained the top destination for EU exports (€6.4 million, +2.5%). However, major traditional export partners like India, the United States, and Japan saw their demand for EU exports plummet between 69.9% and 80.2%.

Specialization became more polarized within the EU

Among the remaining EU producers, specialization intensified. In 2025, Germany (with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage, RSCA, of 0.56) and France (RSCA 0.36) were strongly specialized in this product, while most other EU members, including the Netherlands, Austria, and Romania, showed significant negative specialization (RSCA < -0.70). This suggests the industry became concentrated in a few key EU member states, while others likely ceased production. The specialization data highlights this polarization.

III. Strategic Adjustments: Shifting Vulnerabilities and Volatile Supply Lines

In response to the contraction and increased concentration, the EU's overall trade posture adjusted, though it remained exposed to specific risks from volatile partners and supply shocks.

The EU became slightly less reliant on net imports, but export dependency grew

The net import reliance improved from -23.7% to -16.6%, meaning the EU's position as a net exporter, while diminished, became slightly more pronounced relative to its own consumption. However, the trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) rose from 35.8% to 43.0%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 29.3% to 32.6%. This indicates that while the EU's net import bill shrank, its surviving production became more oriented towards, and dependent on, external markets.

Trade with certain partners was highly volatile and subject to shocks

The volatility analysis reveals that trade flows with several partners were unstable. For imports, the coefficient of variation (CV) was highest with the United Kingdom (CV=2.94) and Japan (CV=2.02). For exports, the highest volatility was with Hong Kong (CV=1.11) and Taiwan (CV=1.37). The system also detected a major supply shock: in 2023, the average price of imports from the United Kingdom spiked by an abnormal 334.9%, indicating a potential one-off disruption or a dramatic shift in product mix from that source.

The product mix traded diverged sharply between imports and exports

A breakdown of the two main sub-segments reveals divergent strategies.

• For corrective spectacle glass blanks (701510): The EU remained a major net exporter, though volumes fell from 1,695 t to 480 t. Prices for these exports rose steadily to €20,261/t by 2025. Imports of this segment were smaller and cheaper.
• For other watch/spectacle glass blanks (701590): The EU became a significant net importer by value. While import volumes were modest (80 t in 2025), their unit price exploded, reaching €105,008/t in 2025. This indicates the EU sources very high-value, likely specialized, blanks in this category (e.g., from Switzerland). Conversely, exports of 701590 grew in volume (from 62 t to 264 t) but had a lower and more volatile price (€17,229/t in 2025).

Conclusion

The market for CN 7015 glass blanks in the EU underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The period was defined by a severe contraction in physical trade volumes, underpinned by a dramatic collapse in EU domestic production. This led to a more constrained and specialized market landscape, with higher concentration in both import suppliers and export destinations.

While the EU's overall net trade position improved slightly, this masked a deepening dependency: the remaining production became more export-reliant, and the imports that were still needed became vastly more expensive, pointing to a focus on ultra-high-value blanks (e.g., for Swiss watches). The market adjusted not by maintaining volume, but by shifting towards higher-value niches and consolidating supply chains around fewer, more specialized partners. However, this increased concentration and the observed price volatility with key partners represent clear strategic vulnerabilities in the current structure of the EU's trade in this segment.