Market evolution: Float glass (CN 7005) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in Float glass (CN 7005) over the period 2015–2025. CN 7005 covers float glass and surface ground or polished glass in sheets — a foundational input for construction, automotive, and solar-energy industries. The EU has remained a net exporter throughout the decade, yet the period has been far from static: volumes have shifted, unit values have surged, supplier geographies have reconfigured, and domestic production has contracted. Three broad dynamics stand out: (1) a structural rise in export and import prices that has reshaped value flows independently of physical volumes, (2) a notable reorientation of the EU's import supply base — away from Belarus and towards China and Türkiye — accompanied by rising import concentration, and (3) a decline in EU production volumes that has nonetheless coincided with growing export value, suggesting a move toward higher-value-added glass products.

1. A Margin-Driven Decade: Prices Rise Much Faster Than Volumes

Export values grew 32% while physical volumes fell 13%

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's total exports of float glass rose from €418 million to €552 million (+32.0%). However, the quantity exported fell from 841,789 tonnes to 731,788 tonnes (−13.1%). The entire value increase was therefore driven by higher unit export prices, which climbed from €497/t to €755/t (+51.8%). The supplementary-unit price (EUR per m²) followed the same trajectory, rising from €5.70/m² to €7.53/m² (+32.2%). This pattern indicates that EU exporters have been able to command significantly higher prices, likely reflecting a combination of energy-cost pass-through, a shift toward higher-specification products, and tighter global supply conditions.

Import values rose 59% but at different speed: volumes up 46%, prices up only 9%

On the import side, the picture contrasts sharply. Import value grew from €159 million to €253 million (+59.2%), but this was overwhelmingly volume-driven: imported tonnage rose from 365,228 t to 534,846 t (+46.4%), while the average import price edged up only 8.7% (from €435/t to €472/t). In other words, the EU has been absorbing significantly larger physical quantities of imported float glass, but at prices that have grown far more slowly than export prices.

The widening export–import price gap signals product upgrading on the export side

The divergence between export and import unit prices is striking:

The export price premium over imports widened dramatically after 2020. EU exports have become substantially more expensive per tonne than imports, pointing to a structural shift: the EU is increasingly exporting coated, thicker, or otherwise higher-specification float glass (sub-headings 700510 and 700521, which command higher unit values), while importing more standard uncoated float glass (700529) at lower price points. This dynamic is consistent with the EU glass industry repositioning toward higher-value segments where energy costs (a major component of float-glass production) can be more easily passed on.

The 2022 price shock stands out in both flows

Across all partner-country relationships, the most significant price shock events cluster in 2022. EU export prices to Türkiye jumped +69.5% (abnormality score 32.5), and import prices from Türkiye rose +64.6% (abnormality score 14.0). UK-bound export prices also spiked +52.0% that year. These coincide with the global energy-price surge following Russia's invasion of Ukraine — float glass is an energy-intensive product (continuous high-temperature furnaces), and 2022's record natural-gas prices in Europe translated directly into higher production costs and thus export prices. The parallel rise in import prices from Türkiye — itself a major float-glass producer — suggests the shock was global rather than EU-specific.

2. A Reconfigured Supplier Landscape and Rising Import Concentration

China, Türkiye, and Algeria replaced Belarus as key import sources

The partner composition of EU imports has undergone a pronounced transformation:

Belarus's collapse (from €14.2 million to just €25,000) is almost certainly a consequence of EU sanctions imposed in 2022 and tightened thereafter, which restricted imports of various goods from Belarus. Meanwhile, China's import value quadrupled over the period, making it the single largest source of EU float-glass imports by 2025 (€69.1 million). Türkiye also became a much larger supplier, nearly tripling its share. The rapid emergence of Algeria (up 1,253%) and Iran (up 16,991% from a very low base) reflects growing float-glass capacity in North Africa and the Middle East, potentially benefiting from lower energy costs.

Import concentration has increased substantially

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU import concentration by value rose from 1,044 in 2015 to 1,612 in 2025 (+54.5%), its highest level in the period. The volume-based HHI followed a similar trajectory (1,270 → 1,918, +51.0%). An HHI above 1,500 is generally considered to indicate a moderately concentrated market. This means the EU's import base has become significantly less diversified — fewer suppliers now account for a larger share of total import value, which could present supply-chain vulnerability if any major supplier were disrupted.

Export destinations have remained more diversified

The export-side HHI tells a different story: it declined from 728 to 673 (−7.6% by value), indicating that the EU's export destinations have become slightly more diversified. Among the top destinations, Ukraine stands out with a dramatic +2,033% increase in EU export value (from €3.6 million to €76.1 million), almost certainly reflecting post-2022 reconstruction demand and Ukraine's need to replace Russian and Belarusian glass supplies. Meanwhile, the UK — historically the largest single destination — saw its share decline by 35.4% (from €62.1 million to €40.2 million), possibly reflecting post-Brexit trade friction and changing supply-chain patterns.

Trade volatility is highest with geopolitically sensitive partners

The coefficient of variation of import values reveals that the most volatile import relationships are with China (CV = 0.77), Iran (CV = 0.74), Algeria (CV = 0.54), and Russia (CV = 0.42). On the export side, Ukraine (CV = 0.74) and the UK (CV = 0.49) show the highest volatility. This volatility underscores the degree to which geopolitical events — sanctions, conflict, and trade-policy shifts — have shaped the float-glass trade landscape in this period.

3. EU Production Contracts While Export Competitiveness Evolves

Domestic production volumes have fallen sharply

According to production data, EU float-glass production in square metres declined from 834.5 million m² (2015) to 552.3 million m² (2025) — a drop of 33.8%. This is a striking contraction in physical output. However, production value tells a different story: it rose from €2.93 billion to €3.22 billion (+9.9%), indicating that the average value per square metre of EU-produced glass has increased substantially. This is consistent with a structural shift toward higher-value products (coated, solar-control, and architectural glass) and away from commodity-grade float glass.

EU export propensity has risen even as production volumes have declined

The EU's export propensity — exports as a share of domestic production — increased from 11.8% to 17.2% (+45.5%). At the same time, trade intensity (exports + imports relative to production + imports) rose from 18.5% to 22.1%. Despite the decline in absolute production volumes, the EU has become more reliant on extra-EU trade in this product — exporting a growing share of what it does produce while also importing more. This suggests that some lower-value production has relocated outside the EU (notably to Türkiye, China, and North Africa), while EU-based producers focus on higher-specification output.

The EU has strengthened its net-exporter position

The net import reliance metric — which is negative when the EU is a net exporter — moved from −3.7% in 2015 to −12.2% in 2025, reaching as low as −18.6% at its peak. The trade surplus in value terms grew from €260 million to €300 million (+15.4%), peaking at €382 million in 2022. This confirms that the EU remains a strong net exporter of float glass overall, and has in fact deepened that position over the decade — even though it simultaneously imports growing volumes of cheaper, standard-grade glass.

Specialisation is concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 shows that float-glass export specialisation is concentrated in smaller EU economies:

Poland is the most significant in absolute terms: it accounts for 14.1% of EU production and has an RCA above 2, with exports surging from €17.2 million to €57.7 million (+234%). Bulgaria has likewise emerged as a major exporter (€39.3M → €81.9M, +108%). Large Western European economies like Germany (€97.8M → €144.2M) and Belgium (€108.6M → €93.9M) remain important in absolute terms but show lower specialisation scores, reflecting their more diversified export profiles.

The product mix is shifting toward coated and specialty glass

Looking at the sub-heading breakdown, the share of coated glass (700510 — glass with absorbent, reflecting, or non-reflecting layers) in EU exports has remained substantial: it accounted for €212.9 million of export value in 2025 (38.5% of total) at a unit price of €853/t — well above the overall export average of €755/t. Standard float glass (700529) dominated volumes (419,490 t exported in 2025) but at lower per-tonne value (€694/t). On the import side, 700529 accounted for 328,832 t (61.5% of import tonnage) at just €372/t, reinforcing the picture of the EU importing commodity-grade glass while exporting higher-value coated products. Wired glass (700530) remains a marginal segment on both sides.

Conclusion

The EU float-glass market over 2015–2025 has been shaped by three converging forces: a structural repricing of glass products (driven by energy costs and product upgrading), a dramatic reconfiguration of import supply chains (with China, Türkiye, and North African suppliers replacing sanctioned Belarusian sources), and a contraction of domestic production volumes that has been offset by higher unit values and growing export orientation. The EU retains a comfortable trade surplus in this product, but its import base has become notably more concentrated and potentially more vulnerable to supply disruptions. Meanwhile, the widening price gap between exports and imports signals that the EU industry is progressively ceding lower-value segments to external producers while concentrating on higher-specification, coated glass products — a trajectory that is likely to continue as energy costs, carbon-pricing mechanisms (EU ETS), and green-building standards further differentiate EU production from global competition. The geopolitical dimension — from Belarus sanctions to Ukraine reconstruction demand — has been an outsized driver of trade flows, reminding that even in a commoditised industrial product, political events can rapidly reshape market geography.