Market evolution: Float glass (CN 700529) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in Float glass and surface ground and polished glass, in sheets (CN 700529) from 2015 to 2025. Over this decade, the EU has consolidated its position as a major net exporter of this product, despite facing significant volatility. The period has been characterized by a major shift in trade relationships, rising prices, and a growing structural reliance on exports, highlighting both the sector's competitiveness and its exposure to external shocks.
1. A Decade of Surplus: The EU's Strengthening Export Profile and Volatile Trade Balance
The EU has consistently maintained a positive trade balance in float glass, but the underlying metrics reveal a significant evolution. The value of exports grew substantially while volumes declined, indicating a shift towards higher-value or higher-priced shipments.
1.1. Export-Led Value Growth Amidst Declining Volumes
Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports rose by 38.8%, from €209.8 million to €291.2 million. However, this growth occurred alongside an 18.0% decrease in export volume (from 511,799 to 419,490 tonnes). This divergence is explained by a sharp 69.4% increase in the average export price (from €410 to €694 per tonne). The trend suggests EU producers successfully commanded higher prices, potentially reflecting a move towards more specialised or premium glass products.
1.2. The Import Side: Higher Prices and Shifting Sources
EU imports also grew, but more erratically. Import value increased by 80.2% to €122.3 million, while quantity grew by 46.8% to 328,832 tonnes. The import price rose by 22.7% to €372 per tonne. This growth was not uniform, with a peak in 2022 (€205.9 million in value and 555,373 tonnes in volume) followed by a correction.
1.3. A Volatile but Persistent Trade Surplus
The EU's trade balance remained positive throughout the period, demonstrating the sector's competitiveness. However, it was highly volatile, ranging from a surplus of €50.9 million (2021) to a peak of €243.6 million (2022). The 2022 peak was driven by a surge in export values, likely linked to post-pandemic demand recovery and the onset of the energy crisis.
| Metric (2015 vs. 2025) | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Value (EUR) | 209.8 M | 291.2 M | +38.8% |
| Export Quantity (t) | 511,799 | 419,490 | -18.0% |
| Export Price (EUR/t) | 409.9 | 694.2 | +69.4% |
| Import Value (EUR) | 67.8 M | 122.3 M | +80.2% |
| Import Quantity (t) | 224,005 | 328,832 | +46.8% |
| Trade Balance (EUR) | 141.9 M | 168.9 M | +19.0% |
Source: General Overview: Trade Flows
2. Geopolitical Reorientation: A Dramatic Shift in Trading Partners
The decade witnessed a profound restructuring of the EU's trade geography for float glass, driven by geopolitical events and changing global supply chains. Traditional partners saw their influence wane, while new relationships surged.
2.1. The Decline and Volatility of Key Historical Partners
The United Kingdom, a top-3 export destination in 2015, saw its share of EU exports fall by 37.7% in value, with high volatility (Coefficient of Variation: 0.65). On the import side, Belarus, a major supplier in 2015 (€14.2 million), saw its exports to the EU collapse by 99.8% to a negligible €24,930 by 2025, likely due to sanctions. This created a supply gap.
2.2. The Rise of New Strategic Partners
New suppliers filled the void left by Belarus. Imports from China surged by 376.6% to €46.7 million, making it the top EU supplier by value in 2025. Algeria and Türkiye also became significant suppliers, growing by 3,210% and 292.6% respectively. On the export side, the EU intensified trade with neighbouring and conflict-affected regions. Exports to Ukraine grew by an extraordinary 1,320.5%, while those to Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina more than doubled.
2.3. Increasing Market Concentration and Strategic Dependence
The reshuffling of trade partners led to a significant increase in import concentration. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose by 45.8%, from 1,387 to 2,023. This indicates a move from a diversified supplier base towards a more concentrated one, increasing strategic dependence on fewer partners like China.
| Top Import Partners (Value in EUR) | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus | 14.2 M | ~0.02 M | -99.8% |
| China | 9.8 M | 46.7 M | +376.6% |
| Algeria | 0.5 M | 15.1 M | +3,210.0% |
| Türkiye | 4.0 M | 15.8 M | +292.6% |
| United Kingdom | 14.7 M | 15.3 M | +4.2% |
| Top Export Partners (Value in EUR) | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 33.7 M | 40.2 M | +19.2% |
| United Kingdom | 33.3 M | 20.8 M | -37.7% |
| Ukraine | 2.4 M | 33.7 M | +1,320.5% |
| United States | 23.8 M | 50.0 M | +110.3% |
Source: General Overview: Top Partners
3. Structural Shifts: Specialisation, Production, and Vulnerability
Behind the trade figures lie structural changes within the EU's glass industry and its relationship with the global market, marked by increased export orientation and exposure to price shocks.
3.1. Divergent Specialisation Within the EU
In 2025, EU member states displayed starkly different specialisation profiles in float glass production. Luxembourg and Bulgaria had the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores, indicating strong export specialisation. Conversely, Ireland and Finland had near-zero RCA, indicating they are pure importers. Germany remained the production and export powerhouse, accounting for 31.6% of EU production and 31.6% of extra-EU export value.
3.2. A Production Sector Shifting from Volume to Value
EU production data reveals a strategic reorientation. Between 2015 and 2025, production volume fell by 19.6% (from 298.6 to 240.0 million m²), while production value increased by 52.5% (from €983.4 million to €1.5 billion). This aligns with the trade data, reinforcing the picture of an industry moving towards higher-margin, value-added glass products.
3.3. Growing Export Reliance and Supply Shock Vulnerability
The EU's net import reliance flipped from slightly negative (-0.6%) in 2015 to strongly negative (-15.3%) in 2025, confirming its status as a consistent net exporter. More significantly, export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 14.3% to 18.7%, indicating the industry's growing dependence on external markets. This exposure is highlighted by detected price shocks, notably a massive 102.8% price spike for exports to Türkiye in 2022, coinciding with the onset of the Ukraine war and the energy crisis.
Conclusion
The EU's float glass market over 2015-2025 tells a story of resilience and adaptation. The bloc successfully strengthened its overall export surplus, transitioning towards higher-value production. However, this period was marked by profound disruption: a dramatic reorientation of trade partners away from the East and towards Asia and North Africa, increasing concentration risk, and heightened sensitivity to global shocks. The sector now faces a dual challenge: leveraging its comparative advantage in specialised glass to maintain global market share, while managing the strategic vulnerabilities exposed by recent geopolitical and economic turbulence.