Market evolution: Waste glass and cullet (CN 7001) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in cullet and other waste and scrap of glass (CN 7001) over the 2015–2025 period. As a key input for glass recycling and secondary glass production, cullet occupies a strategically important position in the circular economy. The data reveals a market characterised by robust growth in both import and export flows, a dramatic restructuring of production within the EU, and a noticeable shift in sourcing and destination patterns. The EU has moved from a modest net-import position to a significantly more trade-intensive market, with changing partner dynamics that reflect broader industrial and geopolitical shifts.

1. Sustained growth in trade volumes and values with rising unit prices

Over the decade under review, the EU's external trade in waste glass expanded substantially across all key metrics. Both imports and exports grew in value and volume, while unit prices rose—signalling a structural tightening of the cullet market.

1.1 Imports grew faster than exports in value terms

EU imports of cullet from non-EU countries rose from €32.2 million in 2015 to €65.8 million in 2025, representing a 104.1% increase. By contrast, exports grew from €25.6 million to €50.9 million (+98.6%). Import volumes expanded more moderately (+44.0%, from 575,848 t to 829,149 t) compared to exports (+74.1%, from 240,936 t to 419,438 t). This divergence indicates that import prices rose more steeply than export prices.

1.2 Rising unit prices reflect tightening supply conditions

The EU imported cullet at an average price of €56.0/t in 2015, which climbed to €79.4/t by 2025 (+41.8%). Export prices rose more modestly from €106.2/t to €121.2/t (+14.1%). Notably, the export price reached a peak of €184.1/t at some point during the period (likely during 2022, coinciding with the energy crisis). The persistent price gap—EU exports commanding a significant premium over imports—suggests that the EU tends to export higher-quality or better-sorted cullet while importing lower-grade material for bulk recycling.

1.3 The EU remained a net importer throughout the period

The trade balance in value remained negative throughout the period, widening from −€6.6 million in 2015 to −€15.0 million in 2025. The deficit peaked at −€43.1 million in an intermediate year before partially recovering. Net import reliance improved from −33.7% to −13.8%, indicating that while the EU still imports more than it exports, the gap has narrowed considerably—driven largely by the faster growth in export volumes relative to domestic absorption.

2. Shifting partner geography: the United Kingdom as the dominant axis and the rise of emerging suppliers

The geographical structure of EU cullet trade underwent a marked transformation. Pre-existing trade relationships intensified, while new suppliers and destinations emerged, reflecting both post-Brexit repositioning and the globalisation of the waste glass market.

2.1 The United Kingdom became the overwhelmingly dominant partner

The United Kingdom emerged as the single most important trade partner for the EU in cullet, both as a source and destination. UK-origin imports surged from €9.3 million to €31.0 million (+232.7%), while exports to the UK rose from €10.7 million to €20.7 million (+93.2%). The UK alone accounted for 67.9% of EU export value by the end of the period. This bilateral intensification likely reflects both the UK's continued glass manufacturing capacity and the post-Brexit need to formalise previously intra-EU waste flows as cross-border trade.

2.2 Emerging exporters to the EU: Israel, Morocco, and Serbia

Several non-traditional suppliers entered the EU import market with striking growth rates. Israeli exports to the EU grew from negligible levels (€44,000) to €2.3 million—a 5,017% increase. Moroccan and Serbian imports followed similar trajectories. These emerging flows may reflect growing collection infrastructure in these countries or, conversely, the re-routing of waste glass through intermediary destinations. The high volatility associated with some of these flows (Morocco: CV of 0.80; Israel: CV of 0.56) suggests that these relationships are still maturing.

2.3 EU export destinations diversified towards Türkiye and North Africa

On the export side, Türkiye emerged as a major destination, growing from €28,000 to €4.4 million (+15,421%). Moroccan-bound exports similarly surged from €105,000 to €1.8 million. Moldova also became a significant buyer (€0.2M → €1.0M, +463.5%). In contrast, Brazil—which was once a notable destination—collapsed from €2.3 million at peak to essentially zero (−99.8%), reflecting either a structural shift in Brazilian glass recycling or trade policy changes.

2.4 Intra-EU redistribution: which member states drove the external trade?

Among EU member states, Portugal and Spain emerged as the fastest-growing importers of external cullet (+538% and +517% respectively), while Italy also expanded sharply (+603%). On the export side, Belgium (+650%), Romania (+2,481%), and the Netherlands (+604%) led the growth in outward shipments. Germany remained the largest single exporter (€7.1M → €14.1M, +100%) and a major importer (€7.8M → €9.8M), reflecting its central role in European glass recycling.

3. A collapsing domestic production base and increasing market concentration

Perhaps the most striking structural development over the period is the dramatic decline in EU domestic production of cullet, even as external trade volumes expanded. This, combined with rising import concentration, raises questions about the EU's long-term autonomy in this critical recycling input.

3.1 EU production of cullet fell by over 95%

According to PRODCOM production data, EU production of glass in the mass (PRODCOM 23.19.11.10) plummeted from 324,905 tonnes in the first reported period to just 14,000 tonnes in the last—a 95.7% decline. Production value fell from €27.3 million to €16.0 million (−41.3%), implying that the remaining production concentrated on higher-value products. This collapse in domestic output is far steeper than the growth in trade, suggesting that the EU has become structurally dependent on external sources for cullet supply—or that the PRODCOM coverage may have shifted due to classification changes.

3.2 Import concentration intensified while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,925 to 2,801 (+45.5%), moving the market from a moderately concentrated to a highly concentrated structure. By volume, import concentration actually decreased slightly (HHI from 3,841 to 3,470, −9.7%), suggesting that while more countries are shipping cullet to the EU, the value share is increasingly dominated by a few premium suppliers—principally the UK and Switzerland. Export concentration by value remained stable (HHI ≈ 2,289), while by volume it fell sharply (from 4,798 to 2,696, −43.8%), indicating that EU exporters succeeded in diversifying their customer base.

3.3 Belgium and Lithuania are the most specialised EU producers, but production is shrinking

In 2025, Belgium (RSCA: 0.56) and Lithuania (RSCA: 0.56) were the most specialised EU member states in cullet production, followed by Luxembourg, Greece, and Romania. However, even in these countries, production shares are declining. The least specialised members—Bulgaria, Ireland, and Czechia—show near-zero production, indicating that the EU's cullet production base is geographically narrow and shrinking. This concentration of remaining production in a few member states amplifies supply risk.

3.4 Trade intensity surged, highlighting the sector's openness

The EU's trade intensity for cullet rose from 56.7% to 89.7%, while export propensity climbed from 47.2% to 82.5%. These metrics indicate that cullet trade has become an increasingly central feature of the EU's glass recycling ecosystem. The sector's openness, combined with the collapse in domestic production, means that the EU is now highly exposed to external supply conditions—a vulnerability that may intensify as circular economy ambitions increase demand for recycled glass inputs.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in waste glass and cullet (CN 7001) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. Trade volumes and values roughly doubled, driven by a combination of growing recycling demand and the near-total collapse of domestic production. The United Kingdom has emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant bilateral partner, while new supply routes from Israel, Morocco, Serbia, and Türkiye have diversified the geographical footprint. However, the sharp rise in import concentration (HHI +45.5%) alongside the production decline creates a structural dependency that merits attention, particularly as the EU pursues ambitious circular economy targets that will increase rather than decrease demand for cullet. The persistent trade deficit in value and the widening price gap between imports and exports suggest that the EU currently exports higher-grade cullet while importing lower-cost feedstock—a dynamic that, while economically rational in the short term, may limit domestic value retention in the long run.