Market evolution: Cast and rolled glass (CN 7003) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of the European Union in cast and rolled glass (CN 7003) over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers cast and rolled glass in sheets or profiles, whether or not coated, but not otherwise worked, and includes four sub-headings: non-wired untinted sheets (700319), non-wired tinted or coated sheets (700312), wired sheets (700320), and glass profiles (700330). The EU has remained a consistent net exporter throughout the decade, with a trade surplus that stood at approximately €111 million in 2025, down from €127 million at the start of the period. Beneath this headline stability, however, the period reveals a series of structural transformations — a pronounced contraction in volumes, a sharp rise in unit values, a reorientation of trade partners, and growing import concentration — that collectively reshape the competitive landscape of this industry.

I. Volume Contraction, Price Escalation: The Shift Toward Higher-Value Production

The EU's production base has physically contracted while value has been preserved

The most striking structural change in the EU's cast and rolled glass sector is the divergence between output volumes and output values. According to production data, EU production in physical terms fell by 43.7% — from 97.7 million kg in 2015 to 55.0 million kg in 2025 — while the production value actually rose by 6.9%, from €292 million to €312 million. This implies a near-doubling of average unit output value, consistent with a sectoral shift away from commodity-grade sheet glass and toward higher-specification, coated, or specialty products.

Export volumes fell far more steeply than export values

This domestic structural shift is mirrored in external trade flows. EU exports to non-EU countries declined by 29.8% in quantity (from 61,469 tonnes to 43,144 tonnes) but only by 10.7% in value (from €152.8 million to €136.4 million). The average export price rose by 27.3%, from €2,484/t to €3,161/t. This price increase outpaced the volume decline, indicating that the EU is exporting fewer tonnes but at significantly higher average prices — a pattern consistent with specialisation in value-added segments.

Import dynamics tell a contrasting story: growing volumes at falling prices

While exports moved toward higher unit values, imports moved in the opposite direction. Import volumes grew by 23.2% (from 23,730 to 29,225 tonnes), yet import values remained essentially flat at €25.5 million, as the average import price fell by 18.7% from €1,072/t to €872/t. This divergence suggests that the EU increasingly sources lower-cost, commodity-grade glass from abroad — notably from emerging suppliers — while retaining its position in premium export markets.

The sub-heading breakdown confirms the premiumisation trend

A look at the product segment breakdown clarifies which sub-products drive these dynamics. On the import side, 700319 (non-wired, untinted sheets) dominates volumes, growing from 19,752 tonnes in 2015 to 24,452 tonnes in 2025, but at a very low average price (€623/t in 2025). By contrast, 700312 (non-wired, tinted or coated sheets) commands much higher unit values (€3,822/t in 2025) but accounts for far smaller volumes (1,789 tonnes in 2025). On the export side, 700319 similarly dominates volume (33,556 tonnes in 2025) but at a substantially higher price (€3,381/t) than imports of the same sub-product, reinforcing the premium positioning of EU output. Glass profiles (700330) remain a niche but volatile segment on the export side, surging from €4.5 million in 2024 to €10.3 million in 2025.

II. A Reoriented Trade Geography: Emerging Partners, Retreating Traditional Ones

China has become the EU's dominant import supplier

The most dramatic geographic shift on the import side is the surge in imports from China, which grew by 323% from €3.2 million in 2015 to €13.6 million in 2025. China is now by far the largest non-EU supplier, accounting for more than half of all extra-EU import value. This rise was partly offset by declines from other traditional sources: imports from Türkiye fell by 43.2% (from €3.4 million to €1.9 million), and those from the United States fell by 54.7% (from €5.6 million to €2.5 million). Meanwhile, two North African suppliers — Egypt and Algeria — saw dramatic increases, with imports from Egypt growing by 293.7% (to €1.5 million) and Algeria by 1,162.5% (to €0.1 million).

Ukraine's collapse reflects the geopolitical context

The near-total disappearance of Ukrainian imports (−99.9%, from €591,157 to €786) is a stark indicator of the disruption caused by the conflict that began in 2022. Ukraine had been a modest but non-negligible supplier; its effective exit from EU import flows was largely absorbed by Chinese and, to a lesser extent, Egyptian supply.

The United States remains the EU's top export destination, but with a reduced share

On the export side, the United States has consistently been the largest single destination, but its share has eroded: export values fell by 16.8%, from €82.5 million to €68.6 million. Exports to Thailand fell even more sharply (−54.6%, from €15.7 million to €7.1 million). In contrast, exports to China grew by 206.3% (from €8.5 million to €25.9 million), making China both the EU's largest import source and one of its fastest-growing export markets — a notable two-way relationship. Morocco (+182.1%) and Algeria (+48.2%) also emerged as growing export markets.

Internal EU specialisation is concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that the most specialised EU producers in cast and rolled glass, as measured by the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), are Slovakia (RSCA 0.69), Bulgaria (0.57), Czechia (0.39), Spain (0.30), and Germany (0.24). Germany alone accounts for 34.4% of EU production value but has a moderate specialisation index, suggesting its glass output is diversified across many product categories. By contrast, Finland, Croatia, Luxembourg, Sweden, and Denmark show near-zero or negative specialisation, indicating negligible domestic production capacity in this product.

III. Rising Concentration and Deepening Autonomy

Import concentration has increased sharply, raising supplier-dependence risks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose by 84.5% over the period, from 1,732 to 3,195. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market. The rise is almost entirely attributable to China's growing dominance as an import source. By volume, concentration rose even more sharply (+130.8%), reaching 5,517 — an exceptionally high level that signals significant vulnerability to supply disruptions from a single origin. In contrast, export concentration by value declined modestly (−7.3%) from 3,212 to 2,978, suggesting that the EU has slightly diversified its customer base over the period.

Import-side volatility is highest among smaller or emerging suppliers

The volatility analysis reveals that import flows from several smaller partners exhibit very high coefficients of variation (CV > 1.0), including Iran (1.95), India (1.90), Japan (1.90), and Algeria (0.91). These high-volatility sources reflect episodic or project-driven supply rather than stable trade relationships. Among major partners, China's import CV (0.63) is moderate, indicating a trend-driven — rather than erratic — growth pattern. On the export side, the most volatile destinations include Lebanon (CV 1.09) and Algeria (0.65), while the top two markets — the United States (0.16) and the United Kingdom (0.13) — are highly stable.

Specific supply shocks have been concentrated in the post-2020 period

The shock detection identifies three notable price shocks in EU export flows, all occurring in 2020–2021:

The UK price shock in 2020 likely reflects the immediate trade-disruption effects of Brexit and/or COVID-19 logistics bottlenecks. The Morocco and Lebanon shocks in 2021, though from smaller-volume flows, show very large percentage price shifts — potentially linked to specific project demand or supply chain disruptions in those markets.

The EU has become structurally more autonomous and export-oriented

The net import reliance indicator shifted from −32.5% in 2015 to −110.6% in 2025 (the negative sign indicates net export status). This near-tripling of the absolute surplus relative to production reflects the sector's increasing orientation toward external markets. This is further corroborated by the export propensity, which rose from 34.2% to 59.8% (+74.6%), and trade intensity, which increased from 40.1% to 62.5% (+56.0%). Together, these indicators point to a sector that is increasingly trade-dependent — both as an exporter and, to a growing degree, as an importer of lower-cost sheet glass.

Conclusion

The EU's cast and rolled glass sector has undergone a quiet but profound transformation over 2015–2025. While headline trade figures remain comfortably in surplus, the underlying dynamics reveal a sector that has physically contracted (production volumes down 44%, export volumes down 30%) while shifting decisively toward higher-value output (export prices up 27%, production value up 7%). Geographically, China's emergence as the dominant import supplier — growing by over 300% — has concentrated import risk at a time when traditional partners like the US and Türkiye have receded. The rising import HHI (now above 3,000) warrants attention from a supply-chain resilience perspective. At the same time, the EU's deepening export orientation (export propensity now near 60%) means the sector's fortunes are increasingly tied to demand from key third-country markets, above all the United States and, increasingly, China itself. The period also saw acute disruptions — from Brexit and COVID-19 in 2020 to the Ukraine conflict from 2022 — whose effects are visible in the geographic reshuffling of trade flows and in specific price shocks. Overall, the EU appears to be consolidating its competitive position in premium glass segments while ceding commodity-grade market share to lower-cost international suppliers — a structural shift with implications for industrial policy, energy costs, and trade defence considerations.