Market evolution: Glass articles nes (CN 7020) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in articles of glass, n.e.s. (CN 7020) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading is residual in nature — it captures all glass articles not classified elsewhere in Chapter 70 — and therefore encompasses a broad variety of items, from laboratory glassware and vacuum-flask inners to miscellaneous decorative and industrial glass products.

Over the decade, EU trade in CN 7020 has undergone a fundamental structural transformation. While trade values on both the import and export sides have grown substantially, the underlying quantity and price dynamics tell a more nuanced story: the EU has increasingly shifted toward exporting fewer but higher-value items while importing large volumes of lower-unit-price goods. The EU's trade position has flipped from a slight net exporter to a significant net importer, raising questions about industrial competitiveness, supply-chain concentration, and strategic autonomy in a category of glass products that, though residual, serves multiple downstream industries.

1. From volume exporter to value exporter: the recomposition of EU glass-article exports

EU exports rose sharply in value while volumes collapsed

Between 2015 and 2025, the total value of EU exports of glass articles n.e.s. to non-EU partners grew from €282.1 million to €462.9 million, an increase of 64.1%. Over the same period, however, export volume contracted from 60,427 tonnes to just 28,700 tonnes — a decline of 52.5%. The reconciliation of these two trends lies in a dramatic increase in average export unit values:

The unit price of exports nearly quadrupled over the decade, rising from €4,668 per tonne to €16,114 per tonne. This suggests that the EU has progressively moved out of low-value, bulk glass articles and repositioned itself toward higher-technology, specialty, or customised glass products within this residual category.

The United States and China absorbed the bulk of export growth

The two largest non-EU export destinations — the United States and China — together accounted for a growing share of EU export value over the period:

EU exports to the United States nearly tripled, while exports to China quadrupled — consistent with the hypothesis that EU producers are serving demand for advanced glass articles in large, technologically sophisticated markets. Meanwhile, exports to the United Kingdom, historically a major destination, declined by 23.8%, likely reflecting post-Brexit trade frictions and currency effects.

Exports to several other partners contracted sharply. Exports to Russia fell by 66.7% (from €13.5 million to €4.5 million), almost certainly reflecting sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Exports to Norway and Türkiye also declined by 58.8% and 54.7% respectively.

Germany emerged as the dominant EU exporter

Among EU Member States, Germany's export position strengthened dramatically:

Germany's export value more than tripled, and by 2025 it accounted for over two-thirds of total EU exports in this product category — a remarkable concentration. Italy and France, by contrast, saw substantial declines. The Netherlands recorded an extraordinary +485% increase, albeit from a low base. These shifts are consistent with Germany's strong industrial base in precision and specialty glass, while traditional Mediterranean producers appear to have lost ground.

2. Import surge and rising dependency: the EU's growing appetite for glass articles from third countries

Import volumes tripled while prices declined

The most striking feature of the decade is the explosive growth of EU imports:

Import volumes nearly tripled, while the average unit price fell from €4,175 to €3,014 per tonne. This combination — surging volumes at declining prices — is characteristic of a market experiencing significant import competition from lower-cost producers. By 2025, the EU was importing glass articles at roughly one-fifth the unit price it was charging for its own exports (€3,014 vs. €16,114 per tonne), underscoring the segmentation between the export and import sides of the market.

China dominates imports and drives most of the growth

China was the overwhelmingly dominant source of EU imports throughout the period:

Chinese imports grew from €158 million to €449 million, accounting for over 60% of total EU import value by 2025. Türkiye's share surged even faster in percentage terms (+607%), growing from €8 million to €57 million — a sign that Türkiye is emerging as a significant alternative sourcing location, possibly aided by customs-union arrangements and geographic proximity. Imports from India, by contrast, fell by 62%, suggesting a loss of competitiveness for Indian suppliers in this category.

The EU flipped from net exporter to net importer

Perhaps the single most consequential structural shift is captured by the net import reliance indicator, which measures the trade balance as a share of apparent consumption:

The EU moved from being a net exporter of glass articles n.e.s. to a net importer, with the trade balance deteriorating from −€59 million in 2015 to −€279 million in 2025. This swing of nearly 27 percentage points in net import reliance reflects the combined effect of rising import volumes and stagnating or declining export volumes, and it signals a growing structural dependency on external suppliers for this product group.

Import concentration increased markedly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,603 to 3,900 over the period — a 49.8% increase. This places the EU's import structure in a moderately concentrated range, driven primarily by China's growing dominance. By contrast, the export-side HHI also increased (from 830 to 1,546), but from a lower base, indicating that while EU exports also became more concentrated — largely due to Germany's rising share — the export side remains considerably more diversified than the import side.

3. Resilience under pressure: volatility, shocks, and the evolving specialisation landscape

Price volatility varied sharply across partners

Trade flows with individual partners displayed markedly different degrees of volatility, as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV) of annual values:

Exports to Korea, Türkiye, and Vietnam were the most volatile, consistent with sporadic, contract-driven trade patterns for higher-value glass articles. On the import side, flows from Hong Kong and Taiwan exhibited the greatest volatility, likely reflecting the transit or re-export nature of some of those flows. By contrast, Japan and Switzerland — on both the import and export sides — showed relatively low volatility, suggesting stable, long-standing commercial relationships.

Several large price shocks were detected in 2023

The shock-detection analysis identified three prominent anomalies:

The extreme price spike in exports to Vietnam in 2023 (an abnormality score of 22.1) likely reflects a small-volume, high-value contract — possibly related to specialised industrial or laboratory glassware — rather than a structural market shift, given that Vietnam accounted for only 0.6% of EU export value. Similarly, the Mexico shock (abnormality 12.5) involved a 2% value share and may reflect order timing or reclassification effects. These shocks, while dramatic in relative terms, did not materially alter the overall trade trajectory.

EU internal specialisation patterns diverged

The revealed comparative advantage (RCA) analysis for 2025 shows significant heterogeneity across Member States:

Portugal, Croatia, and Estonia displayed the strongest specialisation in glass articles n.e.s. among EU Member States, with RCA values well above 1. Meanwhile, Italy — despite being a historically important glass producer — recorded a moderate RCA of 1.59, suggesting that much of its glass production is captured by other, more specific CN headings (e.g., tableware under 7013 or containers under 7010).

EU production of glass articles in this category grew in value from €901 million to €1.52 billion (+68.7%), though production volumes showed considerable year-to-year variation. The growing gap between domestic production value (increasing) and export volumes (decreasing) is consistent with an increasing share of production being absorbed by the EU internal market or by sectors not captured in external trade statistics, while the EU simultaneously sources lower-value items from abroad.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU trade in glass articles n.e.s. (CN 7020) has undergone a dual transformation. On the one hand, the EU has consolidated its position as a producer and exporter of high-value glass articles, with export unit prices nearly quadrupling and Germany emerging as the overwhelmingly dominant exporter. On the other hand, the EU has become a net importer, driven by a massive influx of lower-unit-price goods — principally from China and increasingly from Türkiye — that has tripled import volumes and pushed the trade balance from a €59 million surplus to a €279 million deficit.

These dynamics reflect broader trends in globalised manufacturing: the EU retains a competitive edge in specialised, high-value-added glass products but has ceded ground in more commoditised segments to lower-cost producers. The rising concentration of imports (HHI approaching 3,900, dominated by China) warrants attention from a supply-chain resilience perspective, even though the residual nature of this product heading limits the strategic significance of any single item within it. The sharp export contraction to Russia following 2022 sanctions and the volatility observed in emerging markets like Vietnam and Mexico further underline the sensitivity of this sector to geopolitical developments.

Going forward, policymakers and industry stakeholders should monitor whether the EU's high-value export positioning is sustainable in the face of continued import competition, and whether diversification of import sources — exemplified by Türkiye's rapid rise — can mitigate the risks of over-reliance on a single supplier.