Market evolution: Automotive laminated safety glass (CN 700721) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in laminated safety glass for motor vehicles and other transport applications (Customs code 700721) over the period 2015–2025. The decade was marked by profound structural shifts: the EU moved from a comfortable trade surplus to near-balance, China emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant import supplier, geopolitical shocks rewrote trade routes, and unit values climbed sharply while physical volumes diverged between imports and exports. The report is structured around three main findings: the erosion of the EU's net exporter status, the radical reorientation of trade partners, and the increasing concentration and vulnerability of import supply chains.
1. The Erosion of the EU's Net Exporter Position
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade balance in automotive laminated safety glass deteriorated dramatically. What was once a robust surplus has been reduced to near-zero, driven by diverging trajectories in export and import volumes.
The trade surplus shrank by nearly 90%
In 2015, the EU recorded a trade surplus of approximately €223 million. By 2025, this had collapsed to just €24.7 million — a decline of 88.9%. The EU's net import reliance moved from −6.0% in 2015 to −2.1% in 2025 (where negative values indicate net export status), meaning the EU is now only marginally a net exporter.
Export volumes fell sharply while import volumes surged
The quantity dynamics tell the clearest story. EU exports fell by 40.8% in volume, from 92,902 tonnes in 2015 to 55,007 tonnes in 2025. Over the same period, import volumes grew by 34.5%, from 78,134 tonnes to 105,062 tonnes. In value terms, the picture is more nuanced: exports declined by a more modest 12.8% (€535.5 million → €467.1 million), while imports rose by 41.7% (€312.3 million → €442.4 million).
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports (value, €M) | 535.5 | 467.1 | −12.8% |
| Exports (volume, kt) | 92.9 | 55.0 | −40.8% |
| Imports (value, €M) | 312.3 | 442.4 | +41.7% |
| Imports (volume, kt) | 78.1 | 105.1 | +34.5% |
| Balance (value, €M) | 223.2 | 24.7 | −88.9% |
Rising export prices masked the volume collapse
A key mitigating factor for the EU's export performance has been rising unit values. Export prices climbed 47.3% over the period, from €5,765 per tonne to €8,492 per tonne — their highest level in the decade. By contrast, import prices rose only 5.4%, from €3,998 to €4,211 per tonne. This growing price premium suggests that EU exports are shifting toward higher-value, more technologically advanced products (e.g., for aircraft, spacecraft, or premium vehicles), while imports increasingly serve the mass-market automotive segment at lower price points. Indeed, the product segment breakdown confirms this: sub-product 70072180 (aircraft, spacecraft, vessels) consistently commanded unit values of €14,000–24,000 per tonne in exports, compared to €5,600–8,100 for the automotive segment (70072120).
EU production volumes remained flat while values rose
EU domestic production of laminated safety glass was essentially stagnant in volume terms — 365,201 tonnes in 2015 versus 364,000 tonnes in 2025 (−0.3%). However, production value rose by 56.9%, from €1.15 billion to €1.80 billion, reflecting significant price inflation within the sector. This stagnation in physical output, combined with the surge in imports, indicates that the EU's growing demand for automotive glass has been met largely through external supply.
2. Geopolitical Disruptions and the Reorientation of Trade Partners
The decade witnessed a dramatic reconfiguration of the EU's trade geography, shaped by Brexit, sanctions, and shifting cost competitiveness. Several longstanding trade relationships were fundamentally altered while new ones — most notably with China — grew to dominance.
China's rise to dominance in EU imports is the decade's defining shift
The most striking dynamic in the data is China's explosive growth as a supplier to the EU. Chinese imports of automotive laminated safety glass surged by 273.5%, from €74.5 million in 2015 to €278.3 million in 2025. China now accounts for the overwhelming majority of EU imports by value. This growth accelerated particularly after 2020, consistent with China's expanding automotive glass manufacturing capacity and its aggressive export orientation in the automotive supply chain.
| Import Partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 74.5 | 278.3 | +273.5% |
| Türkiye | 37.2 | 46.6 | +25.1% |
| Morocco | 2.6 | 15.1 | +487.6% |
| India | 6.1 | 9.2 | +52.2% |
| United Kingdom | 50.6 | 16.2 | −68.1% |
| Russian Federation | 7.3 | 0.1 | −98.6% |
| South Africa | 13.7 | 4.1 | −69.9% |
Brexit reshaped EU–UK trade flows in both directions
The United Kingdom was the EU's single largest export destination in 2015, absorbing €263.7 million (49.2% of total exports). By 2025, this had fallen to €161.0 million (−38.9%), although the UK remains the top single destination. On the import side, UK-sourced imports fell by 68.1%, from €50.6 million to €16.2 million. The introduction of customs formalities and regulatory divergence following Brexit likely contributed to this bilateral contraction, even as deep supply-chain linkages (particularly in the automotive sector) persisted.
Sanctions triggered a near-total collapse of EU–Russia trade
EU imports from Russia fell by 98.6%, from €7.3 million to just €101,546 in 2025. Similarly, EU exports to Russia collapsed by 98.4%, from €22.0 million to €346,213. This near-total cessation is consistent with the supply shock detected in 2023, when Russian imports fell by 100%, driven by EU sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.
Türkiye emerged as a major bilateral partner
The EU–Türkiye relationship in automotive glass deepened considerably in both directions. EU exports to Türkiye surged by 489.8%, from €17.0 million to €100.3 million, making Türkiye the EU's second-largest export market by 2025. A price shock in 2023 was also detected: Turkish export prices exhibited an abnormality score of 5.5 with a 33.7% price shift. This likely reflects both the relocation of automotive production to Türkiye (which has become a major vehicle assembly hub) and the country's role as a re-export platform. Turkish imports into the EU also grew, albeit more modestly (+25.1%, from €37.2 million to €46.6 million).
Morocco and India gained ground as alternative suppliers
Among emerging import partners, Morocco showed the most dramatic percentage growth (+487.6%, from €2.6 million to €15.1 million), though from a low base and with high volatility (CV of 0.70). Morocco's growth is consistent with its expanding automotive manufacturing sector (several major OEMs have established assembly plants there). India also grew steadily (+52.2%, from €6.1 million to €9.2 million) with relatively low volatility (CV of 0.15), suggesting a stable, growing trade relationship.
3. Rising Import Concentration and Strategic Vulnerability
The structural shifts of the decade have left the EU with a significantly more concentrated and potentially vulnerable import base, even as export markets have diversified.
Import concentration doubled, driven by China's dominance
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose by 178.4%, from 1,492 in 2015 to 4,153 in 2025. By volume, the HHI increased from 2,151 to 6,174 (+187.0%). These figures indicate a shift from a moderately concentrated import market to a highly concentrated one, with China now the dominant single source. This level of concentration carries significant supply-chain risk: any disruption to Chinese production or trade policy (e.g., tariffs, logistics bottlenecks, or geopolitical tensions) could have outsized effects on EU automotive glass supply.
Export markets became somewhat more diversified
In contrast, the HHI for exports declined by 33.1%, from 2,718 to 1,817. While the UK remains the top destination (€161.0 million), its share has diminished, and growth markets like Türkiye (€100.3 million), Norway (€22.4 million), and Switzerland (€21.9 million) have absorbed a larger share of EU exports. This diversification, however, has occurred alongside an absolute decline in export volumes.
Trade openness intensified, raising cross-border dependency
The EU's trade intensity — the sum of imports and exports as a share of production — rose from 32.4% in 2015 to 41.5% in 2025 (+28.0%). Export propensity (exports as a share of production) also increased, from 21.6% to 26.9% (+24.5%). These increases indicate that the EU automotive glass sector is becoming more deeply integrated into global trade, with greater exposure to external shocks.
Within-EU specialisation patterns reflect an uneven geography
The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals significant intra-EU variation. Poland (RSCA of 0.55, RCA of 3.45) and Czechia (RSCA of 0.49, RCA of 2.90) are the most specialised large producers, together accounting for 36.9% of EU production volume. These Central European economies benefit from deep integration with German automotive OEMs. At the other end, Ireland (RCA of 0.003) and Greece (RCA of 0.006) have virtually no export specialisation in this product. Notably, Bulgaria's exports surged from €150,000 in 2015 to €43.0 million in 2025 (+28,645%), suggesting the emergence of a new production hub, possibly linked to foreign direct investment.
The non-automotive segment is small but commands premium prices
The product segment breakdown shows that the motor vehicle segment (70072120) dominates both imports and exports, accounting for over 90% of volumes. However, the aircraft/spacecraft/vessel segment (70072180) is a niche but high-value niche: in 2025, its export unit value stood at €23,950 per tonne, nearly three times the automotive segment's €8,104 per tonne. This premium reflects the stringent technical requirements and certification costs associated with aerospace-grade laminated glass.
Conclusion
The EU's automotive laminated safety glass market underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The EU transitioned from a comfortable net exporter to a near-balanced position, as export volumes fell by 40.8% while import volumes grew by 34.5%. Rising export unit values partially cushioned the revenue impact, suggesting an upward shift in the product mix toward higher-value applications such as aerospace.
The decade's most consequential development has been the rapid consolidation of EU import supply around China, which now accounts for the majority of imports by value. Combined with the collapse of Russian trade and the contraction of UK bilateral flows due to Brexit, this concentration has left the EU with a significantly more vulnerable import base — as reflected in the near-tripling of the import HHI. While export markets have diversified somewhat, and alternative suppliers like Morocco and India are growing, the structural dependency on Chinese supply represents a key strategic consideration for European policymakers.
Looking ahead, the interplay between rising trade intensity, concentrated import sources, and geopolitical uncertainty suggests that resilience and supply-chain diversification will be central themes for this sector in the coming years.